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To recognize the seismogenic process, mechanism and behavior of seismic precursors, as well as look for the ways of earthquake prediction the granular physics principle is applied based on the basic structure of the crust and mantle and existing experimental observations, where we treat the earth crust and mantle as large scale discrete matters. Main outcomes are: A granular model of the structure and movement of the earth crust and mantle is established. A formation mechanism of the tectonic forces, which causes the earthquakes, and a model of propagation for precursive signals are proposed. Properties of the seismic precursive signal and its relevance with the earthquake occurrence are illustrated, and principle of ways to detect the effective seismic precursor is elaborated. In the paper the mechanism of palintectic earthquake is also explained by the jamming-unjamming transition of the granular flow. Some earthquake phenomena which were previously difficult to understand are explained, and the predictability of the earthquake is discussed. Due to the discrete nature of the earth crust and mantle, the continuum theory no longer applies during the quasi-static seismogenic process. In all in this paper, based on granular physics, we study the causes of earthquakes, earthquake precursors and earthquake prediction, and a new understanding, different from the traditional seismological point of view, is obtained.
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Keywords:
- granular matter /
- earthquake prediction /
- earthquake precursor /
- deep earthquake
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[36] Li Z W, Xu Y, Hao T Y, Liu J S, Zhang L 2006 Chin. J. Geophys. 49 707 (in Chinese) [李志伟, 胥颐, 郝天珧, 刘劲松, 张岭 2006 地球 49 707]
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[80] Frohlish C 1989 Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 17 227
[81] [82] Green H W, Houston H 1995 Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 23 169
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[86] Che Y T, Gu Y Z, Yu J Z, Liu W Z 2002 Earthquake 22 106 (in Chinese) [车用太, 谷元珠, 鱼金子, 刘五洲 2002 地震 22 106]
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[94] Bak P (translated by Li W, Cai M) 2001 How Nature Works (Wuhan: Central China Normal University Press) [巴克帕著 (李炜, 蔡勖译) 2001 大自然如何工作 (武汉:华中师范大学出版社)]
[95] [96] Wu Z L, Jiang C S 2005 Earthquake Research in China 21 103 (in Chinese) [吴忠良, 蒋长胜 2005 中国地震 21 103]
[97] [98] Wu Z L, Jiang C S 2006 Earthquake Research in China 22 236 (in Chinese) [吴忠良, 蒋长胜 2006 中国地震 22 236]
[99] [100] Wang Y Z, Shen Z K 2007 Earthquake Research in China 23 1 (in Chinese) [王阎昭, 沈正康 2007 中国地震 23 1]
[101] [102] Zhang G M, Ma H S, Wang H, Li L 2004 Sci. China D 34 591 (in Chinese) [张国民,马宏生,王辉, 李丽 2004 中国科学(D辑) 34 591]
[103] -
[1] Chen Y T 2007 Seis. Geomag. Obser. Res. 28 1 (in Chinese) [陈运泰 2007 地震地磁观测与研究 28 1]
[2] [3] Shearer P M (translated by Chen Z L) 1999 Introduction to Seismology (New York: Cambridge University Press) [席勒P M著 (陈章立译) 2008 地震学引论 (北京:地震出版社)]
[4] [5] Chen Z L 2004 Introduction to the Base of Seismological Method for Earthquake Prediction (Beijing: Seismic Press) (in Chinese) [陈章立 2004 浅论地震预报地震学方法基础 (北京:地震出版社)]
[6] [7] Zhang G M, Fu Z X, Gui X T 2001 Introduction to Earthquake Prediction (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [张国民, 傅征祥, 桂燮泰 2001 地震预报引论 (北京: 科学出版社)]
[8] de Gennes P G. 1999 Rev. Mod. Phys. 71 S374
[9] [10] [11] Kadanoff L P 1999 Rev. Mod. Phys. 71 S435
[12] Lu K Q, Liu J X, 2004 Physics 33 629,713 (in Chinese) [陆坤权, 刘寄星 2004 物理 33 629,713]
[13] [14] Duran J 1999 Sands, Powders, and Grains, An Introduction to the Physics of Granular Materials (New York:Springer)
[15] [16] [17] Brace W F, Byerlee J D 1966 Sience 153 990
[18] [19] Burridge R, Knopoff L 1967 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 57 341
[20] [21] Agnolin I, Roux J N 2007 Phys. Rev. E 76 061304
[22] [23] Liu A J, Nagel S R 1998 Nature 396 21
[24] [25] Trappe V, Prasad V, Cipelletti L, Segre P N, Weitz D A 2001 Nature 411 772
[26] To K, Lai P Y, Pak H K 2001 Phys. Rev. Lett. 86 71
[27] [28] [29] Hou M Y, Chen W, Zhang T, Lu K Q, Chan C K 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 91 204301
[30] Zhu X H, Cai Y L 2006 Advance in Earth Sciences 21 496 (in Chinese) [朱晓华,蔡运龙 2006 地球科学进展 21 496]
[31] [32] Yang S D Ed. 2001 An Outline of Earth Sciences (2nd Ed.) (Hangzhou: Zhejiang University Press) (in Chinese) [杨树铎主编 2001 地球科学概论 (第2版)(杭州: 浙江大学出版社)]
[33] [34] [35] Song X D, Li S T, Li Y C, Zheng S H, Xie X N 2004 Earth Sci. J. China Univ. Geosci. 9 531 (in Chinese) [宋晓东,李思田,李迎春,郑斯华,解习农 2004 中国地质大学学报: 地球科学 9 531]
[36] Li Z W, Xu Y, Hao T Y, Liu J S, Zhang L 2006 Chin. J. Geophys. 49 707 (in Chinese) [李志伟, 胥颐, 郝天珧, 刘劲松, 张岭 2006 地球 49 707]
[37] [38] Helffrich G R, Wood B J 2001 Nature 412 501
[39] [40] Teng J W 1996 Introduction to Solid Geophysics (Beijing: Seismic Press) (in Chinese) [腾吉文 1996 固体地球物理学概论 (北京: 地震出版社)]
[41] [42] [43] Li Y H, Wu Q J, Tian X B, Zhang R Q, Pan J T 2009 Chin. J. Geophys. 52 67 (in Chinese) [李永华,吴庆举,田小波,张瑞青, 潘佳铁 2009 地球 52 67]
[44] Dragert H, Wang K, James T S 2001 Science 292 1525
[45] [46] Wang Q, Zhang P Z, Niu Z J, Freymueller J T, Lai X A, Li Y X, Zhu W Y, Liu J N, Bilhan R, Larson K M 2001 Sci. China D 31 529 (in Chinese) [王琪, 张培震, 牛之俊, Freymueller J T, 赖锡安, 李延兴, 朱文耀, 刘经南, Bilhan R, Larson K M 2001 中国科学 (D辑) 31 529]
[47] [48] Zhang P Z, Deng Q D, Zhang G M, Ma J, Gan W J, Min W, Mao F Y, Wang Q 2003 Sci. China D 33 12 (in Chinese) [张培震,邓起东,张国民,马瑾,甘卫军,闵伟,毛凤英, 王琪 2003 中国科学(D辑) 33 12]
[49] [50] Li Y X, Yang G H, Li Z, Guo L Q, Huang C, Zhu W Y, Fu Y, Wang Q, Jiang Z S, Wang M 2003 Sci. China D 33 65 (in Chinese) [李延兴, 杨国华,李智,郭良迁,黄城,朱文耀,符养,王琪,江在森,王敏 2003 中国科学(D辑) 33 65]
[51] [52] [53] Tang H T, Zhang X L, Zhang X, Jiang F Y 2011 Plateau Earthquake Research 23 37 (in Chinese) [唐红涛,张晓亮,张希,蒋锋云 2011 高原地震 23 37]
[54] Zhang P Z, Xu X W, Wen X Z, Ran Y K 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1066 (in Chinese) [张培震,徐锡伟, 闻学泽, 冉勇康 2008 地球 51 1066]
[55] [56] [57] Shen Z K, Sun J B, Zhang P Z, Wan Y G, Wang M, Brgmann R, Zeng Y H, Gan W J, Liao H, Wang Q L 2009 Nature Geosci. 2 718
[58] Lu K Q, Hou M Y, Wang Q, Jiang Z H, Liu J X 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 119101 (in Chinese) [陆坤权, 厚美瑛, 王强,姜泽辉, 刘寄星 2011 60 119101]
[59] [60] [61] Wang L 2004 Earthquake Research in Sichuan 110 42 (in Chinese) [王兰 2004 四川地震 110 42]
[62] [63] Niu F L, Silver P G, Daley T M 2008 Nature 454 204
[64] Jiang J X, Yin G H, Wang Z H, Wang X G, Tang X Y 2004 Chin. J. Rock Mechan. Engin. 23 4072 (in Chinese) [蒋靖祥, 尹光华, 王在华, 王新刚, 唐小勇 2004 岩石力学与工程学报 23 4072]
[65] [66] Jiang J X, Yin G H 2005 J. Geodesy Geodynamics 25 91 (in Chinese) [蒋靖祥, 尹光华2005 大地测量与地球动力学 25 91]
[67] [68] Peng H, Ma X M, Jiang J J 2008 J. Geomechanics 14 97 (in Chinese) [彭华,马秀敏, 姜景捷 2008 地质力学学报 14 97]
[69] [70] Fan G Y, Shi L Q, Li L S 2002 J. Seismology 22 7 (in Chinese) [范桂英, 拾礼勤, 李兰生 2002 地震学刊 22 7]
[71] [72] [73] Qiu Z H, Zhang B H, Chi S L, Tang L, Song M 2010 Sci. China: Geosci. 40 1031 (in Chinese) [邱泽华, 张宝红, 池顺良, 唐磊, 宋茉 2010 中国科学: 地球科学 40 1031]
[74] [75] The Monitoring and Prediction Department of China Seismological Bureau 2005 The Indonesian Earthquake and Its Impact on the Chinese Mainland Area (Beijing: Seismic Press) (in Chinese) [中国地震局监测预报司编 2005 2004年印尼8.7级大地震及其对中国大陆地区的影响 (北京:地震出版社)]
[76] [77] Lu K Q, Hou M Y, Wang Q, Peng Z, Sun W, Sun X M, Wang Y Y, Tong X H, Jiang Z H, Liu J X 2011 Chin. Sci. Bull. 56 1071 [陆坤权,厚美瑛,王强,彭政,孙威,孙晓明,王玉莹,佟晓辉,姜泽辉,刘寄星 2011 科学通报 56 1071]
[78] [79] Li J, Jin X, Zhou Z R, Lin S, Yuan L W, Chen Y 2009 Acta Seismol. Sin. 31 629 (in Chinese) [李军, 金星, 周峥嵘, 林树, 袁丽文, 陈莹 2009 地震学报 31 629]
[80] Frohlish C 1989 Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 17 227
[81] [82] Green H W, Houston H 1995 Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 23 169
[83] [84] [85] Li G B 2005 Plateau Earthquake Research 17 33 (in Chinese) [李国斌 2005 高原地震 17 33]
[86] Che Y T, Gu Y Z, Yu J Z, Liu W Z 2002 Earthquake 22 106 (in Chinese) [车用太, 谷元珠, 鱼金子, 刘五洲 2002 地震 22 106]
[87] [88] [89] Zhang X M, Zhai Y Z, Guo J F, Guo X Z, Han H P 2006 Earthquake 26 82 (in Chinese) [张学民, 翟彦忠, 郭建芳, 郭学增, 韩和平 2006 地震 26 82]
[90] [91] Xu S X 2006 Chin. Academy Engin. 8 14 (in Chinese) [许绍燮 2006 中国工程科学 8 14]
[92] [93] Zhang G M, Wang S Y, Li L, Zhang X D, Ma H S 2002 Chin. Sci. Bull. 47 663 (in Chinese) [张国民, 汪素云, 李丽, 张晓东, 马宏生 2002 科学通报 47 663]
[94] Bak P (translated by Li W, Cai M) 2001 How Nature Works (Wuhan: Central China Normal University Press) [巴克帕著 (李炜, 蔡勖译) 2001 大自然如何工作 (武汉:华中师范大学出版社)]
[95] [96] Wu Z L, Jiang C S 2005 Earthquake Research in China 21 103 (in Chinese) [吴忠良, 蒋长胜 2005 中国地震 21 103]
[97] [98] Wu Z L, Jiang C S 2006 Earthquake Research in China 22 236 (in Chinese) [吴忠良, 蒋长胜 2006 中国地震 22 236]
[99] [100] Wang Y Z, Shen Z K 2007 Earthquake Research in China 23 1 (in Chinese) [王阎昭, 沈正康 2007 中国地震 23 1]
[101] [102] Zhang G M, Ma H S, Wang H, Li L 2004 Sci. China D 34 591 (in Chinese) [张国民,马宏生,王辉, 李丽 2004 中国科学(D辑) 34 591]
[103]
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