-
A new method of predicting dryness and wetness based on evolutionary modeling (EM) is presented in this paper. Numerical tests indicate that the basic dynamic characteriscs can be captured by EM and the model obtained by EM is not only able to preferablely simulate historical evolution, but also can exactly predict the future evolutionary trend of a time series. For the model obtained by EM with relatively larger prediction errors, the secondary EM can improve the prediction accuracy obviously.
-
Keywords:
- dryness and wetness prediction /
- dryness and wetness grades series /
- evolutionary modeling /
- prediction error
[1] Chou J F, Xu M 2001 Chin. Sci. Bulletin 46 11 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 徐明 2001 科学通报 46 11]
[2] Chou J F 2007 Acta Meteo. Sin. 65 673 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2007 气象学报 65 673]
[3] Chou J F 1974 Sci. China 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[4] Shi N 2009 Meteorology Statistical Forecasting (Beijing: Metrological Press) pp30--65 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京: 气象出版社) 第30---65页]
[5] Shi N, Chen H, Feng J R, Chen S Q 1999 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 10 70 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈辉, 冯俊茹, 陈淑琴 1999 应用气象学报 10 70]
[6] Carson D J 1998 J. Roy Meteor. Soc. 124A 1
[7] Moura A D, Stefan H 2004 J. Climate 17 2667
[8] Sara A, Rauscher A S, Brant L B, Qian J H, Suzana J C 2007 Mon. Weather Rev. 135 2642
[9] Daniel S W 2008 Int. J. Climatol. 28 1589
[10] Stefan H, Sun L Q, Moura A D 2009 Int. J. Climatol. 28 921
[11] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[12] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[13] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[14] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[15] Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. China B 21 331 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红 1991 中国科学B辑 21 331]
[16] Cao H, Kang L, Chen Y, Yu J 2000 Genet. Program. Evol. M 1 309
[17] Metorological Research College of Central Meteorological Administration 1981 Dryness and Wetness Distirbution in China over Past 500 Years (Beijing: Map Press) p1 (in Chinese) [中央气象局气象科学研究院 1981中国近五百年旱涝分布图集 (北京: 地图出版社) 第1页]
[18] Zhang D E, Liu C Z 1993 Meteor. Monthly 19 11 (in Chinese) [张德二, 刘传志 2003 气象 19 11]
-
[1] Chou J F, Xu M 2001 Chin. Sci. Bulletin 46 11 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 徐明 2001 科学通报 46 11]
[2] Chou J F 2007 Acta Meteo. Sin. 65 673 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2007 气象学报 65 673]
[3] Chou J F 1974 Sci. China 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[4] Shi N 2009 Meteorology Statistical Forecasting (Beijing: Metrological Press) pp30--65 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京: 气象出版社) 第30---65页]
[5] Shi N, Chen H, Feng J R, Chen S Q 1999 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 10 70 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈辉, 冯俊茹, 陈淑琴 1999 应用气象学报 10 70]
[6] Carson D J 1998 J. Roy Meteor. Soc. 124A 1
[7] Moura A D, Stefan H 2004 J. Climate 17 2667
[8] Sara A, Rauscher A S, Brant L B, Qian J H, Suzana J C 2007 Mon. Weather Rev. 135 2642
[9] Daniel S W 2008 Int. J. Climatol. 28 1589
[10] Stefan H, Sun L Q, Moura A D 2009 Int. J. Climatol. 28 921
[11] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[12] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[13] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[14] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[15] Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. China B 21 331 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红 1991 中国科学B辑 21 331]
[16] Cao H, Kang L, Chen Y, Yu J 2000 Genet. Program. Evol. M 1 309
[17] Metorological Research College of Central Meteorological Administration 1981 Dryness and Wetness Distirbution in China over Past 500 Years (Beijing: Map Press) p1 (in Chinese) [中央气象局气象科学研究院 1981中国近五百年旱涝分布图集 (北京: 地图出版社) 第1页]
[18] Zhang D E, Liu C Z 1993 Meteor. Monthly 19 11 (in Chinese) [张德二, 刘传志 2003 气象 19 11]
Catalog
Metrics
- Abstract views: 7141
- PDF Downloads: 667
- Cited By: 0
下载:
