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采用1960–2011年中国740站日降水观测数据, 以长江中下游地区为切入点, 提出暴雨"积成效应"这一概念, 旨在将暴雨这一天气尺度强降水过程拓展为类似中长期天气尺度过程来考虑, 研究它对季节尺度降水的贡献及影响. 通过统计分析从持续时间(Ld)、控制面积(Ar)、降水贡献率(Qs) 等三个角度建立暴雨"积成效应"概念及判定标准, 并进一步结合上述指标建立暴雨"积成效应"强度指数. 从这一角度出发, 探讨长江中下游地区暴雨"积成效应"与夏季降水的时空对应关系, 发现强度指数与同期夏季降水量的年际和年代际变化具有很好的一致性; 强弱指数年合成分布以及指数与中国东部夏季降水相关系数的空间分布呈现出类似于中国东部夏季雨带的分布形式; 而利用EOF分解对暴雨"积成效应"空间范围分类, 发现其与该地区夏季降水具有相似的4种空间型, 总体而言, 长江中下游地区暴雨"积成效应"造成的降水极大地影响甚至决定整个夏季降水的多寡及空间分布.To expand the torrential rain which is a meso-and-micro scale weather process to a meso-and-long scale weather process, in this paper we choose the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYZ) as a sample region, and propose the conception of "Cumulative Effect" of torrential rain (CETR) by using the daily precipitation observational data from 740 stations in China. On the statistical analysis of observations, we define CETR as the cumulation or superposition of many torrential rain processes, and three indexes, which are continuous time (Ld), control area (Ar) and precipitation contribution rate (Qs), which are used for explaining the conception of CETR. Then taking these three indexes into consideration, we establish the intensity index of CETR (BQDI) and study the relationship between the BQDI and the summer precipitation in MLRYZ. Results show that the interannual and interdecadal variations of BQDI are similar to those of summer precipitation in MLRYZ. The distribution of correlation coefficient between the BQDI and the summer precipitation in Eastern China and the composite analysis of representative years in BQDI show a large positive relation area in MLRYZ (significance test at the 95% level) and two large negative relation areas in North and South China (significance test at the 95% level), which reveals that the variations of BQDI not only correspond to the variations of summer precipitation in MLRYZ but also correlate with the distribution of summer precipitation in Eastern China to some extent. Besides, an empirical orthogonal analysis is performed on the frequency of torrential rain in MLRYZ, we find that the four major spatial modes of torrential rain are also similar to those of summer precipitation in MLRYZ. In conclusion, the precipitation caused by CETR greatly influences even determines the amount and distribution of summer rainfall, which is worth further investigating.
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Keywords:
- middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River /
- torrential rain /
- "Cumulative Effect" /
- summer precipitation
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[29] Kim J E, Hong S Y 2007 J. Climate 20 5732
[30] Zhang W J, Zhou T J, Zhi H 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 78 (in Chinese) [张文君, 周天军, 智海2012气象学报 70 78]
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[32] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[33] Zhi R, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 1837 (in Chinese) [支蓉, 廉毅, 封国林2007 56 1837]
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[1] Bao M, Huang R H 2006 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 30 1057 (in Chinese) [鲍名, 黄荣辉 2006 大气科学 30 1057]
[2] Tao S Y, Ding Y H, Zhou X P 1979 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 3 227 (in Chinese) [陶诗言, 丁一汇, 周晓平1979大气科学 3 227]
[3] Tao S Y 1980 The Torrential Rain of China (Beijing: Science Press) pp255 (in Chinese) [陶诗言 1980 中国之暴雨(北京:科学出版社) 第255页]
[4] Doswell III C A, Ramis C, Romero R, Alonso S 1998 Weather Forecasting 13 102
[5] Ding Y H 1998 East Asia Monsoon and Torrential Rain of China (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p137 (in Chinese) [丁一汇1998东亚季风和中国暴雨 (北京:气象出版社)第137页]
[6] Homar V, Romero R, Ramis C, Alonso S 2002 Ann. Geophys. 20 2047
[7] Ducrocq V, Ricard G, Lafore J P, Orain F 2002 Weather Forecasting 17 1236
[8] Gao S T, Zhao S X, Zhou X P, Sun S Q, Tao S Y 2003 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 27 618 (in Chinese) [高守亭, 赵思雄, 周晓平, 孙淑清, 陶诗言2003大气科学 27 618]
[9] Lebeaupin C, Ducrocq V, Giordani H 2006 J. Geophys. Res. 11 1
[10] Ding Y H 1993 Study of Durative Heavy Storm in Jiang-Huai Area in 1991 (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p255 (in Chinese) [丁一汇 1993 1991年江淮流域持续性特大暴雨研究 (北京: 气象出版社)第255页]
[11] National Climate Center 1998 The Heavy Flood and Climate Anomaly in 1998 (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p139 (in Chinese) [国家气候中心 1998 1998年大洪水和气候异常(北京: 气象出版社)第139页]
[12] Tao S Y 2001 The Mechanism and Forecasting of Torrential Rain of China in Summer 1998 (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p1 (in Chinese) [陶诗言 2001 1998夏季中国暴雨的形成机理与预报研究(北京:气象出版社)第1页]
[13] Zhang P Q, He M, Xu L 2002 Plateau Meteorology 21 243 (in Chinese) [张培群, 何敏, 许力2002高原气象 21 243]
[14] Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Zhang S L 2003 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 27 1018 (in Chinese)[张庆云, 陶诗言, 张顺利 2003 大气科学 27 1018]
[15] Zhao J H, Yang J, Feng G L, Zhang S X 2013 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 24 43 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 封国林, 张世轩 2013 应用气象学报 24 43]
[16] Shen B Z, Zhang S X, Yang H W, Wang K, Feng G L 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 109202 (in Chinese) [ 沈柏竹, 张世轩, 杨涵洧, 王阔, 封国林2012 61 109202]
[17] Feng G L, Yang H W, Zhang S X, Wang K, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 1009 (in Chinese) [封国林, 杨涵洧, 张世轩, 王阔, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 1009]
[18] Xie Y M, Hu Y L, Sha W R, Zhu J G, Yang L 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 1 61
[19] Wang J J, Li Z C 2002 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 10 146 (in Chinese) [王建捷, 李泽椿 2002气象学报 10 146]
[20] Booth R E 2012 Weather 14 171
[21] Zhang M, Zhang D L 2012 Monthly Weather Rev. 140 184
[22] Cao J, Gao S T, Zhou Y S 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 2600 (in Chinese) [曹杰, 高守亭, 周玉淑2008 57 2600]
[23] Si D, Ding Y H, Liu Y J 2010 Chin. Sci. Bull. 55 68 (in Chinese) [司东, 丁一汇, 柳艳菊 2010科学通报 55 68]
[24] Zhang D Q, Hu J G, Feng G L 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736
[25] Walker J, Rowntree P R 1977 Quart. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc. 103 29
[26] Yeh T C, Wetherald R T, Manabe S 1984 Monthly Weather Rev. 112 474
[27] Ma Z G, Wei H L, Fu C B 2000 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 58 278 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 魏和林, 符淙斌2000气象学报 58 278]
[28] Koster R D, Dirmeyer P A, Guo Z C, Bonan G, Chan E, Cox P, Gordon C T, Kanae S, Kowalczyk E, Lawrence D, Liu P, Lu C H, Malyshey S, McAvaney B, Mitchell K, Mocko D, Oki T, Oleson K, Pitman A, Sud Y C, Taylor C M, Verseghy D, Vasic R, Xue Y K, Yamada T 2004 Science 305 1138
[29] Kim J E, Hong S Y 2007 J. Climate 20 5732
[30] Zhang W J, Zhou T J, Zhi H 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 78 (in Chinese) [张文君, 周天军, 智海2012气象学报 70 78]
[31] Cui X P, Li X F 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 109201
[32] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[33] Zhi R, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 1837 (in Chinese) [支蓉, 廉毅, 封国林2007 56 1837]
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