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利用19482009年南海夏季风指数、NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析位势高度场、风场资料, 首次分析了南海夏季风与每年登陆中国大陆的首个热带气旋(初旋)的关系. 结果表明: 初旋的登陆日、登陆纬度、生成纬度与当年登陆中国大陆热带气旋的频数、活动期、强度等相关性较好; 强(弱)南海夏季风指数年份, 登陆大陆热带气旋数偏多(少)、初旋登陆日偏迟(早)、初旋登陆点偏南(北). 从流场上看, 强(弱)南海夏季风指数年份, 对应的季风槽偏强(弱), 其异常风场和初旋路径也截然不同. 从年际变化上看, 南海夏季风指数明显呈减弱趋势, 而初旋登陆点则有一定北移.This study investigates the relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the first tropical cyclone (TC) of the season to make landfall over mainland China (in short, the first-landfall TC) using the South China Sea summer monsoon index, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly average data, and best-track TC data from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for 19482009. The results show that the characteristics of the first-landfall TC are closely associated with the frequency, active stage, and strength of subsequent landfall TCs in the same year. In detail, a stronger (weaker) South China Sea summer monsoon index year corresponds to more (fewer) landfall TCs over Mainland China, a later (earlier) date of the first-landfall TC, a lower (higher)-latitude landing point of the first-landfall TC, and a stronger (weaker) monsoon trough. The anomalous wind field and the track of the first-landfall TC are also significantly related to the strength of the index. The location of the first-landfall TC has shows a gradual trend toward higher latitudes over the analysis period, and there is a decreasing trend in the variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon index.
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Keywords:
- monsoon Index /
- tropical cyclone /
- first-landfall TC /
- flow field analysis
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[20] Wang X L, Song W L 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 25 576 (in Chinese) [王小玲, 宋文玲 2009 热带气象学报 25 576]
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[23] Li J P, Zeng Q C 2002 Geophysical Research Letters 29 115
[24] Li J P, Zeng Q C 2003 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20 299
[25] Li J P, Zeng Q C 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 351 (in Chinese) [李建平, 曾庆存, 2005 气候与环境研究 10 351]
[26] Wang B, Huang F, Wu Z W, Yang J, Fu X H, Kikuchi K 2009 Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 47 15
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[1] Chen L, Ding Y 1979 An Introduction to the West Pacific Typhoons (Beijing: Science Press) p22 (in Chinese) [陈联寿, 丁一汇 1979 西太平洋台风概论 (北京: 科学出版社) 第22页]
[2] Zeng Q C, Li J P 2002 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 26 433 (in Chinese) [曾庆存, 李建平 2002 大气科学 26 433]
[3] Wang B, Elsberry R L, Wang Y Q, Wu L G 1998 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 22 535 (in Chinese) [王斌, Elisberry, Russel L, 王玉清, 吴立广 1998 大气科学 22 535]
[4] Rossby C G 1948 J. Marine Res. 7 175
[5] Sun X R, Duan Y H 2003 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 27 67 (in Chinese) [孙秀荣, 端义宏 2003 大气科学 27 67]
[6] Wu H Q 2002 Meteorological Monthly 28 27 (in Chinese) [吴恒强 2002 气象 28 27]
[7] Chen T C, Wang S Y, Yen M C, William A G J 2004 Weather and Forecasting 19 776
[8] Gao J Y, Lu X Y, Bao R J, Zhang X Z 2010 Acta Oceanologica Sinica 32 64 (in Chinese) [高建芸, 吕心艳, 鲍瑞娟, 张秀芝 2010 海洋学报 32 64]
[9] Gao J Y, Lu X Y, Zhang X Z, Jiang Z H 2011 Acta Oceanologica Sinica 33 28 (in Chinese) [高建芸, 吕心艳, 张秀芝, 江志红 2010 海洋学报 33 28]
[10] Wang H, Ding Y H, He J H 2006 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 64 345 (in Chinese) [王慧, 丁一汇, 何金海 2006 气象学报 64 345]
[11] Chia H H, Ropelewski C F 2002 Journal of Climate 15 2934
[12] Chen T C, Weng S P, Yamazaki Z B 1998 Mon. Wea. Rev. 126 1080
[13] Chen L S, Meng Z Y 2001 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 25 420 (in Chinese) [陈联寿, 孟智勇 2001 大气科学 25 420]
[14] Chen G H, Huang R H 2006 Advances In Earth Science 21 610 (in Chinese) [陈光华, 黄荣辉, 2006 地球科学进展 21 610]
[15] Liu C X 2001 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 17 381 (in Chinese) [刘春霞 2001 热带气象学报 17 381]
[16] Feng L H 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 209 (in Chinese) [冯利华 2003 地理学报 58 209]
[17] Wu H 2005 Meteorological Monthly 31 61 (in Chinese) [吴慧 2005 气象 31 61]
[18] Ren F M, Wang X L, Dong W J, Bai L N 2007 Adv. Clim. Change Res. 3 224 (in Chinese) [任福民, 王小玲, 董文杰, 白莉娜 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 224]
[19] Ren F M, Wang X L, Chen L S, Wang Y M 2008 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 66 224 (in Chinese) [任福民, 王小玲, 陈联寿, 王咏梅 2008 气象学报 66 224]
[20] Wang X L, Song W L 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 25 576 (in Chinese) [王小玲, 宋文玲 2009 热带气象学报 25 576]
[21] Hu Y M, Song L L 2009 Adv. Clim. Change Res. 5 90 (in Chinese) [胡娅敏, 宋丽莉 2009 气候变化研究进展 5 90]
[22] Li J P, Zeng Q C 2000 Science in China D 43 647 (in Chinese) [李建平, 曾庆存 2000 中国科学(D) 43 647]
[23] Li J P, Zeng Q C 2002 Geophysical Research Letters 29 115
[24] Li J P, Zeng Q C 2003 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20 299
[25] Li J P, Zeng Q C 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 351 (in Chinese) [李建平, 曾庆存, 2005 气候与环境研究 10 351]
[26] Wang B, Huang F, Wu Z W, Yang J, Fu X H, Kikuchi K 2009 Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 47 15
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