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用长江下游降水低频分量和全球850 hPa低频经向风主成分，建立扩展复数自回归模型（ECAR），对2013年112月长江下游降水低频分量进行延伸期逐日变化预报试验.结果表明，2030 d 时间尺度的长江下游低频降水预测时效可达43 d左右，能较好地预测与暴雨过程对应的低频分量的非线性增长过程，预报能力明显优于自回归模型（AR）.这种通过构造主要低频序列组成的扩展复数矩阵（ECM）进行复数自回归（CAR）建模的ECAR方法，也为展现气候系统内部分量之间相互作用的动力学过程提供了崭新的描述. 基于全球环流主要2030 d振荡型的发展和演变，对于提前27 d预报长江下游地区2013年10月上旬后期大暴雨过程很有帮助，其中南半球热带外环流2030 d振荡是影响2013年夏秋季长江下游地区延伸期强降水变化的一个主要因子.Low-frequency rainfall over the lower reaches of Yangtze river valley (LYRV) and the principal component of the global 850 hPa meridional wind anomalies are adopted to construct an extended complex autoregressive (ECAR) model, which can be applied to the daily forecasting of the low-frequency rainfall component over LYRV in 2013 for the extended range forecast. Results show that this model for the forecasting of the 2030-day rainfalls over LYRV has a good predictive skill up to 43 days, which is able to well predict the nonlinear enhancement processes of low-frequency rainfall component associated with heavy rainstorm process. And the correlation skill of the extended range forecast produced form the ECAR model is superior to the autoregressive model (AR) forecast. This method, in which the complex autoregressive (CAR) models are set up via constructing the extended complex matrix (ECM) for the principal low-frequency time series, provides a new description for the emerging dynamic processes of the interactions between components in climate systems. Based on the development and evolution of the principal 2030-day oscillations of the global circulation, it is help for better forecast the process of heavy rainfall in the early October of 2013 over LYRV for times ahead of about 27 days. In these low-frequency variabilities, the 2030-day oscillation in extratropics over the Southern Hemisphere is one of the main factors causing the changes of the heavy rainfall over LYRV for the extended range during the summer and fall in 2013.
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Keywords:
- extended complex autoregressive model /
- low-frequency rains of 20 /
- 30 days /
- extended range forecast /
- the lower reaches of Yangtze river valley
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[45] B\"urger G 1993 J. Clim. 6 1972
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[48] Schickedanz P T, Bowen E G 1977 J. Appl. Meteorol. 16 359
[49] Ding Q H, Wang B 2005 J. Clim 18 3482
[50] Ding Y H, Liu Y Y 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 670(in Chinese) [丁一汇, 刘芸芸 2008 气象学报 66 670]
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[53] Thompson D W J, Woodworth J D 2014 J. Atmos. Sci. 71 1480
-
[1] Waliser D E, Lau K M, Stern W, Jones C 2003 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 84 33
[2] Hoskins B 2013 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 139 573
[3] Madden R A, Julan P R 1971 J. Atmos. Sci. 28 702
[4] Zhang C 2005 Rev. Geophys. 43 doi:10.1029/ 2004RG000158
[5] Cassou C 2008 Nature 455 523
[6] Baldwin M P, Stephenson D B, Thompson D W J, Dunkerton T J, Charlton A J, O’Neill A 2003 Science 301 636
[7] Miyakoda K, Sirutis J, Ploshay J 1986 Mon. Wea. Rev. 114 846
[8] Vitart F, Molteni F 2010 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 136 842
[9] Fu X, Wang W Q, Lee J Y, Wang B, Vitart F 2013 J. Clim. 26 4186
[10] Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Scientia Meteor. Sin. 30 569(in Chinese) [丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 30 569]
[11] Feng G L, Sun S P, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H 2013 Sci. China Earth Sciences 56 1576
[12] Wang K, Feng G L, Zeng Y X, Wang X J 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202
[13] Zheng Z H, Huang J P, Feng G L, Chou J F 2013 Sci. China D 43 594(in Chinese) [郑志海, 黄建平, 封国林, 丑纪范 2013 中国科学 43 594]
[14] Wang Q G, Chou J F, Feng G L 2014 Sci. China Earth Sciences 44 343(in Chinese) [王启光, 丑纪范, 封国林 2014 中国科学地球科学 44 343]
[15] Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteor Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利,丑纪范2005气象学报 63 988]
[16] Zhang Q, Shin C S, van den Dool H M, Ming C M 2013 Clim. Dyn. 41 2231
[17] Chen B M, Ji L R, Yang P C Zhang D M, Wang G L 2003 Chin. Sci. Bull. 48 513(in Chinese) [陈伯民, 纪立人, 杨培才, 张道民, 王革丽 2003 科学通报 48 513]
[18] Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199203(in Chinese) [郑志海, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 61 199203]
[19] Tsonis A A, Swanson K L and Roebber P J 2006 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 87 585
[20] Tsonis A A, Kyle L S 2008 J. Clim. 21 2990
[21] Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng A X 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 079201
[22] Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351(in Chinese) [龚志强, 周磊, 支蓉, 封国林 2008 57 5351]
[23] Zhi R, Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhou L 2010 Acta Meteor. Sin. 68 501(in Chinese) [支蓉, 封国林, 龚志强, 周磊 2010 气象学报 68 501]
[24] Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Wang Q G, Xiong K G 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 089202(in Chinese) [支蓉, 龚志强, 王启光, 熊开国 2011 60 089202]
[25] Hasselmann K 1988 J. Geophys. Res. 93 11015
[26] von Storch H, Bruns T, Fischer-Bruns I, Hasselmann K 1988 J. Geophys. Res. 93 11022
[27] von Storch H, J S Xu 1990 Clim. Dyn. 4 175
[28] Yang Q M 1998 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 9 345(in Chinese) [杨秋明 1998 应用气象学报 9 345]
[29] Waliser D E, Jones C, Schemm J K, Graham N E 1999 J. Clim. 12 1918
[30] Mo K C 2001 Mon. Wea. Rev. 129 802
[31] Xavier P K, Goswami B N 2007 Mon. Wea. Rev. 135 4149
[32] Wheeler M C, Hendon H H 2004 Mon. Wea. Rev. 132 1917
[33] Jiang X, Waliser D E, Wheeler M C, Jones C, Lee M I, Schubert S D 2008 Mon. Wea. Rev. 136 1940
[34] Maharaj E A, Wheeler M C 2005 Int. J. Climatol 25 1611
[35] He J H, Lin H, Wu Z H 2011 J. Geophys. Res. 116D03109 doi:10.10292010JD014787
[36] Love B S, Matthews A J 2009 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 135 1471
[37] Borah N, Sahai A K, Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S, Abhilash S, Goswami B N 2013 J. Geophys. Res. 118 9022
[38] Love B S, Matthews A J, Janacek G J 2008 J. Clim. 21 5318
[39] Liang P, Ding Y H 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 102 (in Chinese) [梁萍, 丁一汇 2012 大气科学 36 102]
[40] Sun G W, Li Z K, Xin F, He J H 2013 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 37 945(in Chinese) [孙国武, 李震坤, 信飞, 何金海 2013 大气科学 37 945]
[41] Qian W H 2012 Chin. J. Geophys. 55 1439(in Chinese) [钱维宏 2012 地球 55 1439]
[42] Yang Q M 2012 Adv. Earth Sci. 27 876(in Chinese) [杨秋明 2012 地球科学进展 27 876]
[43] Yang Q M 2009 Sci. China D 52 1485
[44] Barnett T P 1983 Mon. Wea. Rev. 111 756
[45] B\"urger G 1993 J. Clim. 6 1972
[46] Gu X Q, Kang H W, Cao H X 2006 Prog. Nat. Sci. 16 307
[47] Yang Q M 2007 Marine Sci. 31 43(in Chinese) [杨秋明 2007 海洋科学 31 43]
[48] Schickedanz P T, Bowen E G 1977 J. Appl. Meteorol. 16 359
[49] Ding Q H, Wang B 2005 J. Clim 18 3482
[50] Ding Y H, Liu Y Y 2008 Acta Meteor. Sin. 66 670(in Chinese) [丁一汇, 刘芸芸 2008 气象学报 66 670]
[51] Lau K M, Weng H Y 2002 J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 80 1309
[52] Thompson D W J, Barnes E A 2014 Science 343 641
[53] Thompson D W J, Woodworth J D 2014 J. Atmos. Sci. 71 1480
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