季风与极涡的异常配置下中国夏季大尺度旱涝分布

季飞; 赵俊虎; 申茜; 支蓉; 龚志强

doi:10.7498/aps.63.059201

摘要

从冷暖系统配置的角度，选取东亚夏季风（EASM）和7月亚洲区极涡面积（APVA），分析了二者的气候特征与中国夏季降水分布之间的关系. 在此基础上，将1951–2010年EASM和APVA的异常配置分为四种类型：A：季风强、极涡大；B：季风强、极涡小；C：季风弱、极涡大；D：季风弱、极涡小. 研究发现，二者的异常配置下，中国夏季大尺度旱涝分布在季尺度上表现出多面性特征：A型年，夏季整体偏旱；B型年，夏季南涝北旱；C型年，夏季北涝南旱；D型年，夏季整体偏涝. 由此可见，中国夏季旱涝总体分布除了与EASM有关外还与APVA密切相关，二者异常的不同配置下，夏季降水多寡和旱涝分布表现出了显著的差异和规律性，这对夏季降水总体趋势预测有一定的指示意义. 此外，通过研究不同配置关系对应大气环流异常特征，并分析不同要素在夏季风和极涡关系变化中的作用，发现不同配置类型下夏季降水表现出的差异和规律性直接取决于环流场的整体配置，其中西太副高和中高纬阻塞形势起主导作用.

关键词:

Abstract

From the view of warm and cold system configuration, an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) index and the Asian polar vortex area (APVA) index in July were selected, and their climatic characteristics and relationships with the distribution of summer rainfall over China were analyzed. On this basis, the relationships between the EASM and APVA in July from 1951 to 2010 were divided into four types: type A, stronger monsoon and bigger polar vortex area; type B, stronger monsoon and smaller polar vortex; type C, weaker monsoon and bigger polar vortex; type D, weaker monsoon and smaller polar vortex. Based on the method of composite analysis, we found that on the seasonal scale, large-scale distributions of summer droughts and floods over China showed multi-faceted characteristics in different configurations of the EASM and the APVA in July. In A type years, the summer rainfall of China was overall less than normal, the region between eastern parts of Northwest and the western parts of North China, and the eastern regions of Northeast suffered from flood, while Yangtze River valley suffered from drought; in B type years, it had flood in South and drought in North, and the precipitation in the south/north of northern regions in the Yangtze River valley was more/less than normal; in C type years, North China was flooded and South of China suffered from drought, while the precipitation in the northern parts of the Huaihe River valley was more than normal; and in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and to its south the precipitation was less than normal; in D type years, the overall summer rainfall was more than normal, with the precipitation core lying in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. Thus, it can be seen that the distribution of summer rainfall is not only related to the EASM, but also to the PAVA in July. Under different configurations of the both, the precipitation and its distribution display obvious difference and regularity, which, to some extent, have effects on predicting the total trend of summer rainfall. Besides, by discussing the anomaly characteristics of atmospheric circulation due to different configurations and by analyzing the influences of different meteorological factors on the relationship between the monsoon and the polar vortex, we can conclude that the difference and regularity of summer rainfall directly depend on the configurations of circulation. Among them, the western Pacific subtropical high and the blocking situation in the mid and high latitudes are the overriding factors.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;

2.
国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划（批准号：2013CB430204和2012CB955902）、国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41375078和40930952）和公益性行业科研专项（GYHY201106016）资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos 2013CB430204, 2012CB955902), the National Natural Science Foundations of China (Grant Nos. 41375078, 40930952), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201106016).

参考文献

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[28]	Feng G L, Hou W, Zhi R, Yang P, Zhang D Q, Gong Z Q, Wan S Q 2012 Detection, Diagnosis and Predictability Research of Extreme Climate Events (Beijing: Science Press) pp1-345 (in Chinese) [封国林, 侯威, 支蓉, 杨萍, 章大全, 龚志强, 万仕全2012 极端气候事件的检测, 诊断与可预测性研究(北京: 科学出版社) 第1–345页]
[29]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 69 149204(in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 69 149204]
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施引文献

[1]	Zhu K Z 1934 Acta Geographical Sinica 1 1 (in Chinese) [竺可桢 1934 地理学报 1 1]
[2]	Guo Q Y 1983 Acta Geographical Sinica 38 207 (in Chinese) [郭其蕴1983地理学报 38 207]
[3]	Chou J F, Xu M 2001 Chinese Science Bulletin 46 890 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 徐明 2001 科学通报 46 890]
[4]	Zeng Q C, Zhao S X, Lin C H, Xue F 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 281(in Chinese) [曾庆存, 赵思雄, 林朝晖, 薛峰 2005气候与环境研究 10 281]
[5]	Huang R H, Gu L, Chen J L, Huang G 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 691 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 顾雷, 陈际龙, 黄刚 2008 大气科学 32 691]
[6]	Wang H J 2002 Adv. Atmos Sci. 19 1
[7]	Li J P, Zeng Q C 2002 Geophysical Research Letters 29 1274
[8]	Wang B, Wu Z W, Li J P, Liu J, Chang C P, Ding Y H, Wu G X 2008 J Climate 21 4449
[9]	Lian Y, Shen B Z, Gao Z T 2004 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 62 782 (in Chinese) [廉毅, 沈柏竹, 高枞亭 2004 气象学报 62 782]
[10]	Ding Y H 1994 Asian monsoon (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 76-83 (in Chinese) [丁一汇 1994 亚洲季风(北京: 气象出版社) 第76–83页]
[11]	Shi N, Zhu Q G, Wu B G 1996 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci 20 575(in Chinese) [施能, 朱乾根, 吴彬贵1996 大气科学 20 575]
[12]	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 9 (Suppl) 17(in Chinese) [张庆云, 陶诗言 1998 应用气象学报 9 (增刊) 17]
[13]	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Chen L T 2003 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 61 559(in Chinese) [张庆云, 陶诗言, 陈烈庭2003 气象学报 61 559]
[14]	Lian Y, Bu H C L, Xie Z W, Shen B Z, Li S F 2010 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci 34 429(in Chinese) [廉毅, 布和朝鲁, 谢作威, 沈柏竹, 李尚锋 2010 大气科学 34 429]
[15]	Yang H W, Feng G L, Shen B Z, Zhi R 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci 36 487 (in Chinese) [杨涵洧, 封国林, 沈柏竹, 支蓉 2012 大气科学 36 487]
[16]	Zhao J H, Feng G L, Wang Q G, Yang J, Gong Z Q 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci 35 1069(in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 王启光, 杨杰, 龚志强 2011 大气科学 35 1069]
[17]	Zhao Z G 1999 Summer Drought and Environmental Field in China (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 68-72 (in Chinese) [赵振国 1999 中国夏季旱涝及环境场 (北京: 气象出版社) 第68–72页]
[18]	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y 1998 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 56 199(in Chinese) [张庆云, 陶诗言 1998 气象学报 56 199]
[19]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Science China D 2 216(in Chinese) [黄建平, 王绍武1991 中国科学D 2 216]
[20]	Feng G L, Sun S P, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H 2013 Sci China Earth Sci. 56 1576
[21]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606(in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[22]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181(in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 贾晓静, 曹鸿兴 2002 51 1181]
[23]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 099206 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 龚志强, 支蓉 2013 62 099206]
[24]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Feng G L, Zhang S X 2013 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 24 43 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 封国林, 张世轩2013 应用气象学报 24 43]
[25]	Gong Z Q, Zhao J H, Feng G L 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 099205(in Chinese) [龚志强, 赵俊虎, 封国林 2013 62 099205]
[26]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 万仕全, 李建平 2006 55 477]
[27]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Non-linear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: Meteorological Press) pp5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京: 气象出版社) 第5–8页]
[28]	Feng G L, Hou W, Zhi R, Yang P, Zhang D Q, Gong Z Q, Wan S Q 2012 Detection, Diagnosis and Predictability Research of Extreme Climate Events (Beijing: Science Press) pp1-345 (in Chinese) [封国林, 侯威, 支蓉, 杨萍, 章大全, 龚志强, 万仕全2012 极端气候事件的检测, 诊断与可预测性研究(北京: 科学出版社) 第1–345页]
[29]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 69 149204(in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 69 149204]
[30]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[31]	Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 019201
[32]	Wang K, Feng G L, Zeng Y X, Wang X J 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202
[33]	Zhang Z Z, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Hu J G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 019201
[34]	Qian Z H, Hu J G, Feng G L, Cao Y Z 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 109203
[35]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[36]	Zhao J H, Feng G L, Yang J, Zhi R, Wang Q G 2012 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 70 1021(in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 杨杰, 支蓉, 王启光 2012 气象学报 70 1021]

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