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利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法对国家气候中心气候业务模式CGCM的预报结果进行订正, 进而得到改进后的预报结果. 通过对1983–2011年中国夏季降水的模式预报和实际降水值各年份之间的耦合场进行SVD分解, 选取模式预报和实况降水相关性最好的前3–7个模态, 对这5种不同模态个数的订正结果加以对比, 选出对中国区域订正效果最好的模态个数, 得到模式预报的订正结果. 对2004–2009年6年进行交叉回报试验, 以距平相关系数和均方根误差作为评判标准来检验回报结果, 得出2004–2009大部分年份取前5个模态作为当年订正的模态个数时,订正效果最好. 利用已有的2004–2009年的模式和实际降水资料进行检验, 证实在大部分年份5个模态订正效果最好, 并将结果与系统误差订正法的结果相比较, 表明SVD法对2004–2009年 6年的订正结果中, 有4年比系统误差法的订正效果好. 以2010年作为预测年, 以1983–2009年27年交叉回报检验的结果确定模态个数, 对预测结果加以分析, 显示该方法具有潜在的业务应用价值.In this paper, singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to correct the National Climate Center business model CGCM, thus improving the forecast results. By performing the SVD decomposition using field coupling between the summer rainfall patterns forecasted in 1983-2011 and actual rainfall values, by selecting the mode forecast and 3-7 modals that are best correlated with the live precipitation, and comparing these revised results of the different numbers of modal number, and by selecting the number of modals with the best correction effect in the China region, the revised results are obtained from the model predictions. The 2004-2009 cross hindcast experiments and the return results tested by using the anomaly correlation coefficient and the root mean square error as evaluation criterion show that the best corrections are obtained by taking the first five modals in 2004-2009 as the number of modal revised in the year. The examinations of 2004-2009 mode and actual precipitation data demonstrate the correction effect obtained by the five modals is indeed best. A comparison between the result and the systematic errors shows that the Dhamma revised results are better than the systematic errors. Taking the year of 2010 as the forecast year, using the results of the cross-examination of 27 years 1983-2009 to determine the number of modals, and analyzing the forecast results by the determined number of modals constitute a method that has a potential business value.
[1] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[2] Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[3] Zhao S R, Song Z S 1999 Plateau Meteorol. 18 535 (in Chinese) [赵声蓉, 宋正山 1999 高原气象 18 535]
[4] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 万仕全, 李建平 2006 55 477]
[5] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林 2010 59 655]
[6] Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 59 664]
[7] Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Trop. Meteorol. 26 438 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 438]
[8] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China D 37 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学 D辑 37 988]
[9] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Adv. Earth Sci. 22 376 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[10] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[11] Fan K, Lin M J, Gao Y Z 2008 Sci. China 38 1452 (in Chinese) [范可, 林美静, 高煜中 2008 中国科学 38 1452]
[12] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[13] Chou J F 2003 Xinjiang Meteorol. 26 1 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2003 新疆气象 26 1]
[14] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[15] Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176 ]
[16] Cao H X 1993 Sci. China B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 B 辑 23 104]
[17] Qiu Z J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[18] Feng G L, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Chou J F 2001 Adv. Atmosph. Sci. 18 701 (in Chinese)
[19] Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[20] Zhen Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[21] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支容 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[22] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 213 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 气象学报 70 213]
[23] Yang J, Zhao J H, Zhen Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[24] Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteor. 19 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 19 178]
[25] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支容, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[26] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林2010 59 655]
[27] Shi N 2002 Weather Research and Forecasting How Far the Analysis Method (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p129 (in Chinese) [施能 2002 气象科研与预报中的多远分析方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第129页]
[28] Wei F Y 2007 Diagnosis and Prediction of Modern Climate Statistics Technology (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p144 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第144页]
[29] Qin Z Q, Lin Z H, Chen H, Sun Z B 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 69 0289 (in Chinese) [秦正坤, 林朝晖, 陈红, 孙照渤 2011 气象学报 69 0289]
[30] Li F, Lin Z D, Zuo R T, Zeng Q C 2005 Adv. Climate Change Res. 10 658 (in Chinese) [李芳, 林中达, 左瑞亭, 曾庆存 2005 气候与环境研究 10 658]
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[1] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[2] Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[3] Zhao S R, Song Z S 1999 Plateau Meteorol. 18 535 (in Chinese) [赵声蓉, 宋正山 1999 高原气象 18 535]
[4] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 万仕全, 李建平 2006 55 477]
[5] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林 2010 59 655]
[6] Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 59 664]
[7] Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Trop. Meteorol. 26 438 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 438]
[8] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China D 37 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学 D辑 37 988]
[9] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Adv. Earth Sci. 22 376 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[10] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[11] Fan K, Lin M J, Gao Y Z 2008 Sci. China 38 1452 (in Chinese) [范可, 林美静, 高煜中 2008 中国科学 38 1452]
[12] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[13] Chou J F 2003 Xinjiang Meteorol. 26 1 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2003 新疆气象 26 1]
[14] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[15] Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176 ]
[16] Cao H X 1993 Sci. China B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 B 辑 23 104]
[17] Qiu Z J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[18] Feng G L, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Chou J F 2001 Adv. Atmosph. Sci. 18 701 (in Chinese)
[19] Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[20] Zhen Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[21] Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支容 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[22] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 213 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 气象学报 70 213]
[23] Yang J, Zhao J H, Zhen Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[24] Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteor. 19 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 19 178]
[25] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支容, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[26] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林2010 59 655]
[27] Shi N 2002 Weather Research and Forecasting How Far the Analysis Method (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p129 (in Chinese) [施能 2002 气象科研与预报中的多远分析方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第129页]
[28] Wei F Y 2007 Diagnosis and Prediction of Modern Climate Statistics Technology (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p144 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第144页]
[29] Qin Z Q, Lin Z H, Chen H, Sun Z B 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 69 0289 (in Chinese) [秦正坤, 林朝晖, 陈红, 孙照渤 2011 气象学报 69 0289]
[30] Li F, Lin Z D, Zuo R T, Zeng Q C 2005 Adv. Climate Change Res. 10 658 (in Chinese) [李芳, 林中达, 左瑞亭, 曾庆存 2005 气候与环境研究 10 658]
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