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针对2012年夏季中国东部降水"南旱北涝"的异常特征, 对比分析了近50年不同年代中国东部降水的分布型及海洋和环流等影响因素, 并讨论了2012年中国东部夏季降水异常作为中国东部降水年代际转型信号的可能性. 研究结果表明: 1961—1978年期间, 北太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)处于冷位相, 东亚夏季风偏强, 西太平洋副热带高压(副高)偏弱, 北方地区冷空气活动偏弱, 从而有利于南方水汽北上, 造成中国北方地区夏季降水异常偏多; 1979—1992年间则呈相反的特征, 造成1970年代末期中国东部夏季降水发生了一次年代际尺度的调整. 2010年代后期以来, PDO由暖位相向冷位向转变, 2012年北太平洋海温异常偏暖, 西太平洋海温由异常偏暖状态转变为正常略偏冷状态, 东亚夏季风由弱变强, 副高由强变弱, 北方冷系统活动减弱, 这些特征均与1961—1978年时段的情况类似, 支持2012年作为中国东部夏季降水发生年代际调整的前期信号的可能性. 近10年PDO, 东亚夏季风(EASM), 副高(WPSH)和贝湖高压(BH)四种指数夏季平均值的演变则进一步说明 了2012年的这种异常特征不仅是年际尺度的振荡, 更可能是前期演化基础上的一种量变到质变的调整.Considering the abnormal precipitation in north-west and drougtin south China during the summer of 2012, we have analyzed the decadal precipitation distribution and the chief probably-influencing factors in recent 50 years, in order to make a discussion of the possibility of decadal change of summer precipitation in East China since the summer of 2012. Research results show that the north Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is in cold phase, and the north cold air active and the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) are both in weak phase during the summer of 1961-1978. This situation is beneficial to the strong east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) and the north expansion of the low latitude water vapor, causing the summer precipitation in northern China more than normal in this decadal. While the situation is in quite opposite way during 1979-1992 (which causes the decadal change of summer precipitation in east China) that the precipitation is less than normal in northern China during the late period. Meanwhile, since in the late 2010 PDO changed from the warm phase to cold phase, the sea surface temperature was warmer in north Pacific and colder in west Pacific than normal, while the west Pacific subtropical high and the north region cold air active both changed from strong phase to weak phase, and the EASM became stronger, quite similar to that in 1961-1978. All of the cases showed that there might be once more a decadal change of summer precipitation in East China since the summer of 2012. Furthermore, the yearly variation of indices of PDO, EASM, WPSH and Baikal Height (BH) showed that the abnormal precipitation distribution and the chief influencing factors are not only the yearly variables but also the probable signal of decadal change in the following years.
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Keywords:
- decadal variation /
- precipitation /
- north Pacific decadal oscillation /
- east Asia summer monsoon
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[1] Ding Y H 2005 High Meteorologica (Beijing: Meteorologica Press) 236 (in Chinese) [丁一汇 2005 高等天气学(北京: 气象出版社) 236]
[2] Liao Q S, Chen G Y, Chen G Z 1981 Collection of long time weather forecast. (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 103 (in Chinese) 廖荃荪, 陈桂英, 陈国珍 1981 长期天气预报文集 (北京: 气象出版社) 103]
[3] Chen J Y, Luo Y 1990 (in Chinese) [陈菊英, 罗勇 1990 全国减轻自然灾害研讨会论文集 (北京: 中国科学技术出版社) 178-185]
[4] Wen F Y, Zhang X G 1988 Meteorologica 14 15 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 张先恭 1988 气象 14 15]
[5] Huang R H, Chen J L, Huang G 2007 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 24 993
[6] Huang R H, Chen J L, Liu Y 2011 Chinese J. of Atmospheric Science 35 589 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 陈际龙, 刘永 2011 大气科学 35 589]
[7] Chikamoto Y, Kimoto M, Ishii M, Watanabe M 2012 J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 90A 1
[8] Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 79201
[9] Kerr R 2000 Science 288 1984
[10] Knight J R, Folland C K, Scaife A A 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L17706
[11] Huang R H, Gu L, Chen J L, Huang G 2008 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 32 691 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 顾雷, 陈际龙, 黄刚 2008 大气科学 32 691]
[12] Dai X G, Wang P, Chou J F 2004 Progress Natural Sciences 14 73
[13] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[14] Zhang Q Y, L J M, Yang L M, Wei J, Peng J B 2007 Chinese J. of Atmospheric Sciences 31 1290 (in Chinese) [张庆云, 吕俊梅, 杨莲梅, 卫捷, 彭京备 2007 大气科学 31 1290]
[15] Deng W T, Sun Z B, Zeng G 2009 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 33 835 (in Chinese) [邓伟涛, 孙照渤, 曾刚 2009 大气科学 33 835]
[16] Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林 2009 58 4353]
[17] Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Pyhs. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 周磊, 支蓉, 封国林 2008 57 5351]
[18] Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6651 (in Chinese) [王晓娟, 龚志强, 周磊, 封国林 2009 58 6651]
[19] Huang R H, Huang G, Wei Z G 2004 Climate variations of the summer monsoon over China// Chang C P East Asian Monsoon. World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. 213-270
[20] Gu W, Li C Y, Yang H 2005 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 63 728 ( in Chinese) [顾薇, 李崇银, 杨辉 2005 气象学报 63 728]
[21] Zhu Y M, Yang X Q 2003 Acta Meteor Sinica 61 642 (in Chinese) [朱益民, 杨修群 2003 气象学报 61 642]
[22] Li F, He J H 2000 J. Tropical Meteoro 16 261 (in Chinese) [李峰, 何金海 2000 热带气象学报 16 261]
[23] Smith T M, Reynolds R W 2003 J. Climate 16 1495
[24] Zhang Y, Wallace J M, Battisti D S 1997 J. Climate 10 1004
[25] Shi N, Zhu Q G, Wu B G 1996 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 20 575 (in Chinese) [施能, 朱乾根, 吴彬贵 大气科学 20 575]
[26] Guo Q Y, Cai J N, Shao X M 2004 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 28 206 (in Chinese) [郭其蕴, 蔡静宁, 邵雪梅 2004 大气科学 28 206]
[27] Kwon M H, Jhun J G, Ha K J 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L21706
[28] Ding Y H, Wang Z Y, Sun Y 2008 Int. J. Climatol. 28 1139
[29] Li J, Zeng Q 2003 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 20 299
[30] Li J, Zeng Q 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 351
[31] Yu L J, Hu D X, Feng J Q 2011 Chinese J. of Atmospheric Science 35 1091 (in Chinese) [于乐江, 胡墩欣, 冯俊乔 2011 大气科学 35 1091]
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