The preliminary research about the precursory signals of abrupt climate change based on critical slowing down phenomenon

Wu Hao; Hou Wei; Yan Peng-Cheng; Feng Guo-Lin

doi:10.7498/aps.61.209202

Abstract

In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in the area of disclosing whether complex dynamic system tends to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index and the national average monthly temperature are processed in this article to study the precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Take the abrupt climate change in a period from the late1970s to the early 1980s for example, the variances and autocorrelation coefficients which can characterize critical slowing down are calculated separately. The results show that the PDO index and the national average monthly temperature both have obviously a critical slowing down phenomenon before the abrupt climate change takes place, which indicates that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change. The introduction of critical slowing down theory into abrupt climate change precursory signals and study on it have practical significance and important scientific value for thoroughly understanding the abrupt climate change and for catching the precursory signals of abrupt climate change.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;
2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
3.
College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033).

References

[1]	Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]
[2]	Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumber R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615
[3]	Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 3 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]
[4]	Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]
[5]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[6]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社) 第5-8页]
[7]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 54 5494]
[8]	Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 54 5487]
[9]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 3180]
[10]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 56 3619]
[11]	He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 58 2862 ]
[12]	He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 59 8264]
[13]	He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 60 029203]
[14]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604
[15]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[16]	Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[17]	Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecol. Lett. 9 311
[18]	Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecol. Lett. 11 450
[19]	Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象(北京:科学出版社)]
[20]	Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球 54 1817]
[21]	Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京:气象出版社) 第62-76页]
[22]	Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[23]	Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H II 2008 Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[24]	Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2009 Acta Meteo. Sin. 67 307 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 支蓉, 封国林, 张强 2009 气象学报 67 307]
[25]	Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]
[26]	Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 61 069201]
[27]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 57 3920]
[28]	Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]

Cited By

[1]	Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]
[2]	Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumber R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615
[3]	Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 3 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]
[4]	Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]
[5]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[6]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社) 第5-8页]
[7]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 54 5494]
[8]	Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 54 5487]
[9]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 3180]
[10]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 56 3619]
[11]	He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 58 2862 ]
[12]	He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 59 8264]
[13]	He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 60 029203]
[14]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604
[15]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[16]	Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[17]	Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecol. Lett. 9 311
[18]	Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecol. Lett. 11 450
[19]	Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象(北京:科学出版社)]
[20]	Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球 54 1817]
[21]	Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京:气象出版社) 第62-76页]
[22]	Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[23]	Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H II 2008 Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[24]	Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2009 Acta Meteo. Sin. 67 307 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 支蓉, 封国林, 张强 2009 气象学报 67 307]
[25]	Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]
[26]	Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 61 069201]
[27]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 57 3920]
[28]	Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]

[1]	Shang Ji-Xiang, Zhao Yun-Bo, Hu Li-Na. Abnormal viscosity changes in high-temperature metallic melts. Acta Physica Sinica, 2018, 67(10): 106402. doi: 10.7498/aps.67.20172721
[2]	Liu Qun-Qun, He Wen-Ping, Gu Bin. Application of nonlinear dynamical methods in abrupt climate change detection. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(17): 179201. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.179201
[3]	Da Chao-Jiu, Mu Shuai, Ma De-Shan, Yu Hai-Peng, Hou Wei, Gong Zhi-Qiang. The theoretical study of the turning period in numerical weather prediction models based on the Lorenz equations. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(2): 029201. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.029201
[4]	Yang Jin-Hui, Song Jun-Qiang, Cao Xiao-Qun. A study of seasonal fctors impact on climate networks. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(2): 029203. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.029203
[5]	Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Wang Wen-Xiang, Yan Peng-Cheng. Try to use Lyapunov exponent to discuss the abrupt climate change and its precursory signals. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(12): 129204. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.129204
[6]	Wu Hao, Hou Wei, Yan Peng-Cheng. Using the principle of critical slowing down to discuss the abrupt climate change. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(3): 039206. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.039206
[7]	Wu Hao, Feng Guo-Lin, Hou Wei, Yan Peng-Cheng. The early warning signals of abrupt climate change in different regions of china. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(5): 059202. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.059202
[8]	Lu Kun-Quan, Hou Mei-Ying, Jiang Ze-Hui, Wang Qiang, Sun Gang, Liu Ji-Xing. To understand earthquake from the granular physics point of viewcauses of earthquakes, earthquake precursors and prediction. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(11): 119103. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.119103
[9]	Yan Peng-Cheng, Hou Wei, Hu Jing-Guo. The critical warning research of the mean time series mutations based on Logistic model. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(18): 189202. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.189202
[10]	Gong Zhi-Qiang, Zhi Rong, Hou Wei, Wang Xiao-Juan, Feng Guo-Ling. Analysis of decadal characteristics of leading teleconnections based on complex networks theory. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(2): 029202. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.029202
[11]	Lu Kun-Quan, Hou Mei-Ying, Wang Qiang, Jiang Ze-Hui, Liu Ji-Xing. Propagation, distribution and detection principle of seismic precursory signals. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(11): 119101. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.119101
[12]	Feng Guo-Lin, Zhang Lu, Zhang Da-Quan. Analysis of precursors and predictability of PDSI extremes in China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(8): 5896-5903. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.5896
[13]	Gong Zhi-Qiang, Wang Xiao-Juan, Zhi Rong, Feng Guo-Lin. Regional characteristics of temperature changes in China during the past 58 years and its probable correlation with abrupt temperature change. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(6): 4342-4353. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.4342
[14]	Wang Qi-Guang, Zhang Zeng-Ping. The research of detecting abrupt climate change with approximate entropy. Acta Physica Sinica, 2008, 57(3): 1976-1983. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.1976
[15]	. Slowing-down effect of alpha particle in thermonuclear burn of D-T plasma. Acta Physica Sinica, 2007, 56(12): 6911-6917. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.6911
[16]	Chen Shi_Dong, Zhu Liu_Hua, Kong Ling_Jiang, Liu Mu_Ren. The effect of Noise-First and anticipation headway on traffic flow. Acta Physica Sinica, 2007, 56(5): 2517-2522. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.2517
[17]	Feng Guo-Ling, Gong Zhi-Qiang, Dong Wen-Jie, Li Jian-Ping. Abrupt climate change detection based on heuristic segmentation algorithm. Acta Physica Sinica, 2005, 54(11): 5494-5499. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.5494
[18]	LUO ZHENG-MING, TEN LI-JIAN. THE SLOWING DOWN OF FAST PARTICLES PASSING THROUGTH FUSION PLASMA AND THE ENERGY GAIN OF FUSION REACTION. Acta Physica Sinica, 1982, 31(9): 1166-1175. doi: 10.7498/aps.31.1166
[19]	HUO YU-KUN. THE SLOWING DOWN-DIFFUSION OF α PARTICLES IN FUSION PLASMA. Acta Physica Sinica, 1980, 29(3): 320-329. doi: 10.7498/aps.29.320
[20]	HUANG TSXI-CHIA. ON THE SLOWING-DOWN OF NEUTRONS IN TWO ADJACENT MEDIA. Acta Physica Sinica, 1958, 14(2): 153-162. doi: 10.7498/aps.14.153

Catalog

Vol. 61, Issue 20 - 2012-10-20

Metrics

Abstract views: 7502
PDF Downloads: 782
Cited By: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

Search

Article

留言板