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基于北半球中高纬度环流系统关联网络, 研究了冬季北半球各种遥相关年代际尺度的变化特征及其与气候突变的可能联系等. 研究结果表明, NAO, EUPA和WP 等遥相关的作用中心在1970年代中后期和1990年代初期均对应有显著的跃变过程, 且主要空间模态也发生一定的变化. 结合网络顶点度, 定义直接体现遥相关作用强弱的指数并分析其随时间的变化:1980年代以前以PNA, EUPA和WP三种模态的共同作用为主导, 1980年代以后NAO的作用显著增强, 1987年以后AO的作用显著增强, 其他模态的作用则相对较弱. 因此, 多种遥相关年代际尺度的调整可能是1970年代中后期和1990年代初期气候突变的重要表现形式之一.We construct a complex network of the middle latitude circulation system of north hemisphere (NCNH). The decadal characteristic of leading teleconnection and its probable correlation with abrupt climate change are analyzed base on the circulation system network. Results show that (1) action centres of NAO, EUPA and WP have all moved during different periods in the recent 40 years and there has been a common abrupt change process as the end of the 1970s and beginning of the 1990s separately; (2) the new index which denotes the importance of teleconnection is defined using the node degree of NCNH. The temporal change of new index shows that the leading modes were PNA, EUPA and WP before the 1980s; index of NAO notably increased and all the five teleconnections were comparatively robust after 1980s; the index of AO notably increased and other modes comparatively decreased after 1987. So, center and index changes of decadal leading teleconnections may be another important phenomenon of abrupt climate change.
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Keywords:
- complex networks /
- teleconnections /
- decadal leading teleconnections /
- abrupt climate change
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[4] Li J P, Wang X L 2003 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20 661
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[11] Gong D Y, Wang S W 1999 Geophys Res. Lett. 26 459
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[14] Shi N 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 844
[15] Feng G L and Dong W J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
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[18] Zhi R, Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhou L 2010 Acta Meteor. Sinica 24 150
[19] Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 周磊, 支蓉, 封国林 2008 57 5351]
[20] Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2010 Acta Meteor. Sinica 24 0
[21] Wang G L, Tsonis A A 2009 Chin. Phys. B 18 5091
[22] Kistler R, Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M 2001 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 82 247
[23] Watts D J, Strogatz S H 1998 Nature 393 440
[24] Barabsi A O L, Albert R 1999 Science 286 509
[25] Jeong H, Tombor B, Albert R 2000 Nature 407 651
[26] Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6651 (in Chinese) [王晓娟, 龚志强, 周磊, 封国林 2009 58 6651]
[27] Murirhead R J 1982 Aspects of multivariate Statistical Theory (New York:John Wiley & Sons Press) pp151
[28] Hou W, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta Pyhs. Sin. 56 589 (in Chinese) [侯威, 廉毅, 封国林 2007 56 589]
[29] Fu Z B 1994 Scientia Atmospheric Sinica 18 373
[30] IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge (UK: Cambridge University Press) 10
[31] Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 5333 (in Chinese) [杨萍, 侯威, 封国林 2008 57 5333]
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[1] Yang P C, Wang G L, Lu D R 2004 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21 296
[2] Liu S D, Liu S G 1989 Nonlinear Dynamics and Complicated Phenomenon (Beijing: Meteorological Press) pp249 (in Chinese) [刘式达, 刘式适 1989 非线性动力学和复杂现象 北京: 气象出版社 pp249]
[3] Li J P, Gao L 2006 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 30 834 (in Chinese) [李建平, 高丽 2006 大气科学 30 834]
[4] Li J P, Wang X L 2003 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20 661
[5] Li J P, Chou J F 1997 Acta Meteorol Sinica 11 57
[6] Li J P Zeng Q C, Chou J F 2000 Science in China (Series E) 30 550 (in Chinese) [李建平, 曾庆存, 丑纪范 2000 中国科学 (E辑) 30 550]
[7] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data (Beijing: Metrological press) pp227 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 (北京:气象出版社) pp227]
[8] Wallace J M, Gutzler D S 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 784
[9] Huang R H, Sun F Y 1992 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 16 52 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 孙凤英 1992 大气科学 1992 16 52]
[10] Thompson D W, Wallace J M 1998 Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 1927
[11] Gong D Y, Wang S W 1999 Geophys Res. Lett. 26 459
[12] Walker, G T, Bliss E W 1932 Mem. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 4 53
[13] Dai X G, Wang P and Chou J F 2004 Progress Natural Sciences 14 73
[14] Shi N 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 844
[15] Feng G L and Dong W J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[16] Tsonis A A, Swanson K L, Roebber P J 2006 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 87 585
[17] Yamasaki K, Gozolchiani A, Havlin S 2008 Phys. Rev. Lett. 100 228501
[18] Zhi R, Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhou L 2010 Acta Meteor. Sinica 24 150
[19] Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 周磊, 支蓉, 封国林 2008 57 5351]
[20] Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2010 Acta Meteor. Sinica 24 0
[21] Wang G L, Tsonis A A 2009 Chin. Phys. B 18 5091
[22] Kistler R, Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M 2001 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 82 247
[23] Watts D J, Strogatz S H 1998 Nature 393 440
[24] Barabsi A O L, Albert R 1999 Science 286 509
[25] Jeong H, Tombor B, Albert R 2000 Nature 407 651
[26] Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6651 (in Chinese) [王晓娟, 龚志强, 周磊, 封国林 2009 58 6651]
[27] Murirhead R J 1982 Aspects of multivariate Statistical Theory (New York:John Wiley & Sons Press) pp151
[28] Hou W, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta Pyhs. Sin. 56 589 (in Chinese) [侯威, 廉毅, 封国林 2007 56 589]
[29] Fu Z B 1994 Scientia Atmospheric Sinica 18 373
[30] IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge (UK: Cambridge University Press) 10
[31] Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 5333 (in Chinese) [杨萍, 侯威, 封国林 2008 57 5333]
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