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In this paper, we extract stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming 10-30 days by using empirical orthogonal function analysis and some other methods during the snow storm event in November 2009. At the first time, stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming 10-30 days can be divided into two parts: climatic stable components and abnormal stable components, by contribution rate analysis, similarity coefficient and so on. We combine climatic stable components and low-pass filter components to obtain climatological background field. The results show as follows. 1) The circulation pattern of climatological background field persists for a long time and changes slowly. It provides climatological background for the weather event mainly. 2) The climatological background field can indicate the fluctuations of semi-permanent or permanent center with a large space scales. The climatological background field cooperates well in vertical divisions. 3) The abnormal stable components reflect abnormal circulation, and the circulation pattern of abnormal stable components corresponds to the snow storm event in November 2009 well on the time scale. The climatological background field represents circulation pattern background and the abnormal stable components represent the relative strength of weather system.
[1] Chen D H, Xue J S 2004 Acta Meteor. Sin. 62 623 (in Chinese) [陈德辉, 薛纪善 2004 气象学报 62 623]
[2] Lorenz E N 1965 Tellus 17 321
[3] Lorenz E N 1969 J. Atmos. Sci. 26 636
[4] Lorenz E N 1982 Tellus 34 505
[5] Mu M, Duan W S 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 50 2695 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 段晚锁 2005 科学通报 50 2695]
[6] Chou J F 2002 The Nonlinearity and Complexity in Atmospheric Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp149-166 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2002 大气科学中的非线性与复杂性 (北京:气象出版社) 第149-166页]
[7] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[8] He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese) [何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 969]
[9] Wang P, Dai X G 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 4961 (in Chinese) [汪萍, 戴新刚 2005 54 4961]
[10] Ding R Q, Li J P, Seo K H 2011 Mon. Wea. Rev. 139 2421
[11] Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Trop. Meteor. 26 483 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 483]
[12] Yang Q M 2009 Sci. China D 39 1515 (in Chinese) [杨秋明 2009 中国科学(D辑) 39 1515]
[13] Chen G J, Wei F Y, Gong Y F 2010 Quart. J. Appl. Meteor. 21 659 (in Chinese) [陈官军, 魏凤英, 巩远发 2010 应用气象学报 21 659]
[14] Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Wang Q G, Xiong K G 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 089202 (in Chinese) [支蓉, 龚志强, 王启光, 熊开国 2011 60 089202]
[15] Wang K, Feng G L, Sun S P, Zheng Z H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 109201 (in Chinese) [王阔, 封国林, 孙树鹏, 郑志海 2012 61 109201]
[16] Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Sci. Meterol. Sin. 30 569 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 30 569]
[17] Ding Y H, Liang P 2010 Meteorological Monthly 36 111 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 梁萍 2010 气象 36 111]
[18] Sun G W, Xin F, Kong C Y, Chen B M, He J H 2010 Plateau Meteor. 29 1142 (in Chinese) [孙国武, 信飞, 孔春燕, 陈伯民, 何金海 2010 高原气象 29 1142]
[19] Sun G W, Kong C Y, Xin F, Chen B M, He J H 2011 Plateau Meteor. 30 594 (in Chinese) [孙国武, 孔春燕, 信飞, 陈伯民, 何金海 2011 高原气象 30 594]
[20] Li J P, Ding R Q 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 975 (in Chinese) [李建平, 丁瑞强 2008 大气科学 32 975]
[21] Chen H B, Fan X H 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 322 (in Chinese) [陈洪滨, 范学花 2010 气候与环境研究 15 322]
[22] Ding D P, Zhang A Y, Han C, Ren G Y, Xie Z 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 395 (in Chinese) [丁德平, 张爱英, 韩超, 任国玉, 谢庄 2010 气候与环境研究 15 395]
[23] Shi N 2009 Meteorological Statistical Forecasts (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp207-208 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报(北京:气象出版社) 第207-208页]
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[1] Chen D H, Xue J S 2004 Acta Meteor. Sin. 62 623 (in Chinese) [陈德辉, 薛纪善 2004 气象学报 62 623]
[2] Lorenz E N 1965 Tellus 17 321
[3] Lorenz E N 1969 J. Atmos. Sci. 26 636
[4] Lorenz E N 1982 Tellus 34 505
[5] Mu M, Duan W S 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 50 2695 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 段晚锁 2005 科学通报 50 2695]
[6] Chou J F 2002 The Nonlinearity and Complexity in Atmospheric Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp149-166 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2002 大气科学中的非线性与复杂性 (北京:气象出版社) 第149-166页]
[7] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[8] He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese) [何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 969]
[9] Wang P, Dai X G 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 4961 (in Chinese) [汪萍, 戴新刚 2005 54 4961]
[10] Ding R Q, Li J P, Seo K H 2011 Mon. Wea. Rev. 139 2421
[11] Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Trop. Meteor. 26 483 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 483]
[12] Yang Q M 2009 Sci. China D 39 1515 (in Chinese) [杨秋明 2009 中国科学(D辑) 39 1515]
[13] Chen G J, Wei F Y, Gong Y F 2010 Quart. J. Appl. Meteor. 21 659 (in Chinese) [陈官军, 魏凤英, 巩远发 2010 应用气象学报 21 659]
[14] Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Wang Q G, Xiong K G 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 089202 (in Chinese) [支蓉, 龚志强, 王启光, 熊开国 2011 60 089202]
[15] Wang K, Feng G L, Sun S P, Zheng Z H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 109201 (in Chinese) [王阔, 封国林, 孙树鹏, 郑志海 2012 61 109201]
[16] Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Sci. Meterol. Sin. 30 569 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 30 569]
[17] Ding Y H, Liang P 2010 Meteorological Monthly 36 111 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 梁萍 2010 气象 36 111]
[18] Sun G W, Xin F, Kong C Y, Chen B M, He J H 2010 Plateau Meteor. 29 1142 (in Chinese) [孙国武, 信飞, 孔春燕, 陈伯民, 何金海 2010 高原气象 29 1142]
[19] Sun G W, Kong C Y, Xin F, Chen B M, He J H 2011 Plateau Meteor. 30 594 (in Chinese) [孙国武, 孔春燕, 信飞, 陈伯民, 何金海 2011 高原气象 30 594]
[20] Li J P, Ding R Q 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 975 (in Chinese) [李建平, 丁瑞强 2008 大气科学 32 975]
[21] Chen H B, Fan X H 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 322 (in Chinese) [陈洪滨, 范学花 2010 气候与环境研究 15 322]
[22] Ding D P, Zhang A Y, Han C, Ren G Y, Xie Z 2010 Clim. Environ. Res. 15 395 (in Chinese) [丁德平, 张爱英, 韩超, 任国玉, 谢庄 2010 气候与环境研究 15 395]
[23] Shi N 2009 Meteorological Statistical Forecasts (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp207-208 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报(北京:气象出版社) 第207-208页]
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