The trend of seismic activities in China and adjacent regions after Wenchuan earthquake——Research of seismic energy release with “oscillation analogy”

Hu Wei-Jian; Sang Hong; Liu Hui-Juan; Wang Fu-Yun; Li Ping-Lin

doi:10.7498/aps.59.4351

Abstract

According to the geological structure and characteristics of seismic activity in the eastern segment of Eurasian seismic zone, China and adjacent regions are chosen as the research regions, where earthquakes of Ms≥60 happened 824 times in total from 1897 to 2008 The sum of the yearly released energy is filtered and studied systematically. The results show that the release of seismic energy features a periodic damped oscillation. Through the oscillation analogy, we can forecast quantitatively the long-term and medium- and short- term seismic situations in China and adjacent regions. Theoretical analysis confirms that the earthquake vibrancy in the continental plates should last 1537 a, namely, 1897—2050 Such a result is consistent with the conclusions from the analysis of Chinese historical seismic data collected for more than 2000 a, and it may be regarded as a theoretical basis that the periodic seismic activity lasts about 150 a in China and adjacent regions. According to the periodic characteristic of the seismic activity, we can forecast theoretically that the current active duration will close in 2010—2012, furthermore, the next active duration will begin near 2020—2021, and then end in 2040 around. Subsequently, the earthquake process will completely enter into a relatively quiet duration for over one century after 2050

Keywords:

China and adjacent regions /
yearly seismic energy /
forecast of strong earthquake activity /
oscillation analogy

Authors and contacts

(1)郑州大学物理工程学院,郑州 450001; (2)中国地震局地球物理勘探中心,郑州 450002; (3)中国地震应急搜救中心,北京 100049

References

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[2]	［2］Wang W M, Zhao L F, Li J, Yao Z X 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1403
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[20]	］Li S J 2007 J. Geomech. 13 25 (in Chinese)［李述靖 2007 地质力学学报 13 25］
[21]	］Cui Z W, Wang K X, Hu H S, Sun J G 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 746
[22]	］Liu J X, Cui Z W, Wang K X 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 2180
[23]	］Du Q Z, Liu L L, Sun J B 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6143 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、刘莲莲、孙晶波 2007 56 6143］
[24]	］Li H X,Tao C H 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2836 (in Chinese) ［李红星、陶春辉 2009 58 2836］
[25]	］Du Q Z， Yang H Z 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2801 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、杨慧珠 2004 53 2801 ］
[26]	］Ding J H 1993 In 1994 on Trends in China’s Earthquake Study（Beijing: Seismology Press） pp1—63 (in Chinese) ［丁鉴海 1993 1994年地震趋势研究报告(北京:地震出版社) 第1—63页］

Cited By

[1]	［1］Teng J W, Bai D H, Yang H, Yan Y F, Zhang H S, Zhang Y Q, Ruan X M 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1385
[2]	［2］Wang W M, Zhao L F, Li J, Yao Z X 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 1403
[3]	［3］Zhang Z, Wang Y, Chen Y, Houseman G A, Tian X, Wang E, Teng J 2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 17310
[4]	［4］Hubbard J, Shaw J H 2009 Nature 458 194
[5]	［5］Guo L Q， Li Y X， Hu X K， Liu X 2009 Chin.J. Geophys. 52 531 (in Chinese) ［郭良迁、李延兴、胡新康、刘峡 2009 地球 52 531］
[6]	［6］ Wang Y P, Ma J, Li C Y 2007 Seismology and Geology 29 1(in Chinese) ［汪一鹏、马瑾、李传友 2007 地震地質 29 1］
[7]	［7］Xu J R, Zhao Z X, Ishikawa Y 2008 Chin. J. Geophys. 51 770 (in Chinese) ［徐纪人、赵志新、石川有三 2008 地球 51 770］
[8]	［8］Parsons T, Ji C, Kirby E 2008 Nature 454 509
[9]	［9］Fu Z X, Ding X, Wang X Q 2006 Earthquake 26 35 (in Chinese) ［傅征祥、丁香、王晓青 2006 地震 26 35］
[10]	］Chen X Z 2007 Earthquake 27 41 (in Chinese) ［陈学忠 2007 地震 27 41］
[11]	］Su N Q 2003 Inland Earthquake 17 190 (in Chinese) ［苏乃秦 2003 内陆地震 17 190］
[12]	］Deng Q D, Zhang Y M, Xu G L,Fan F T 1979 Seismology and Geology 1 11 (in Chinese) ［邓起东、张裕明、许桂林、范福田 1979 地震地质 1 11］
[13]	］Shi Z L, Huan W L, Lu S D 1982 Sci. China B 12 840（in Chinese）［时振梁、环文林、卢寿德 1982 中国科学B 12 840］
[14]	］Shi Z L, Zhao R G, Wang S Z, Wang J X 1986 World Earthquake Catalog (1900—1980, Ms≥60) (Beijing: Cartographic Publishing House) pp236—269 (in Chinese) ［时振梁、赵荣国、王淑贞、王敬贤 1986 世界地震目录（１９００—１９８０，Ms≥６０） (北京：地图出版社) 第236—269页］
[15]	］Gu G X 1983 China Earthquake Catalog (B.C.1831—1979) (Beijing: Science Press)(in Chinese)［顾功叙 1983 中国地震目录（北京：科学出版社）］
[16]	］Ganse R A, Nelson J B 1988 BC2000—1979 Global Great Earthquake Catalog (Beijing: Seismology Press (in Chinese)) ［甘斯R A、纳尔逊J B 1988 公元前2000年—公元1979年全球重大地震目录(中译本) （北京：地震出版社）］
[17]	］Zhu C Z 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press）pp63—77 (in Chinese) ［朱传镇 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第63—77页］
[18]	］Wang L M 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press） pp114—124 (in Chinese) ［汪良谋 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究 (北京:地震出版社) 第114—124页］
[19]	］Lu Z Y 1990 The Study of Earthquake Trends Forecast in Chinese Mainland （Beijing: Seismology Press） pp34—49 (in Chinese) ［陆忠远 1990 中国地震大形势预测研究（北京:地震出版社）第34—49页］
[20]	］Li S J 2007 J. Geomech. 13 25 (in Chinese)［李述靖 2007 地质力学学报 13 25］
[21]	］Cui Z W, Wang K X, Hu H S, Sun J G 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 746
[22]	］Liu J X, Cui Z W, Wang K X 2007 Chin. Phys. B 16 2180
[23]	］Du Q Z, Liu L L, Sun J B 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 6143 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、刘莲莲、孙晶波 2007 56 6143］
[24]	］Li H X,Tao C H 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2836 (in Chinese) ［李红星、陶春辉 2009 58 2836］
[25]	］Du Q Z， Yang H Z 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2801 (in Chinese) ［杜启振、杨慧珠 2004 53 2801 ］
[26]	］Ding J H 1993 In 1994 on Trends in China’s Earthquake Study（Beijing: Seismology Press） pp1—63 (in Chinese) ［丁鉴海 1993 1994年地震趋势研究报告(北京:地震出版社) 第1—63页］

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Vol. 59, Issue 6 - 2010-03-20

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