国家气候中心大气环流模式冬季模式误差特征分析

王皓; 郑志海; 于海鹏; 黄建平; 季明霞

doi:10.7498/aps.63.099202

摘要

本文利用19822010年国家气候中心第二代月动力延伸预测系统中大气环流模式（BCC_AGCM）的回报资料和美国国家环境预测中心和美国国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析资料，分析了该模式对冬季气温预测的误差特征及其与外强迫的联系. 结果表明模式能够在整体上较好地反映出欧亚区域冬季气温的变化趋势，能抓住东亚冬季风区气温年际变化的主要空间模态，对东亚冬季风区冬季气温具有一定的预报能力. 预报误差的空间分布和时间演变特征的结果表明，误差在陆地大于海洋，高纬地区大于低纬地区，同时与海拔高度也有密切关系. 预报误差的主要模态与一些关键区域的海温和海冰存在显著的相关性，表明模式对外强迫异常的响应能力存在缺陷. 这为结合模式对关键区海温和海冰异常的响应能力，有针对性地改进模式对东亚冬季风区冬季气温的预测能力提供了依据.

关键词:

月预报 /
预报误差 /
海温 /
北极海冰

Abstract

By using the National Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC_AGCM) for the second generation monthly dynamic extended range system and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data accumulated during 1982-2010, the model forecast errors in winter temperature prediction and their relationship with external forcing factors are analyzed. Result indicates that the model can well reproduce the variation trends of winter temperature over Eurasia region, and the main interannual variability pattern of winter temperature over East Asian monsoon domain can be successfully presented. It reveals that the model has acceptable performances in winter temperature prediction over East Asian monsoon domain, while the forecast errors are still considerable. In spatial distribution, the forecast errors over lands are larger than those over oceans. Meanwhile, the errors at high latitudes are larger than at low latitudes, and they are also closely related to altitude. The principal components of forecast errors have significant association with the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration over some key regions, it is shown that the response capability to external forcings is insufficient. This may provide a valuable reference for improving the prediction skill of winter temperature for East Asian monsoon domain, in combination with the model response to external forcings.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000;

2.
国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081;

3.
94195部队气象台, 临洮 730500

基金项目: 公益性行业（气象）专项（批准号：GYHY201206009）、国家重点基础研究发展计划（批准号：2013CB430204）、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金（批准号：41105070，41005051）、国家重大科学研究计划（批准号：2012CB955301）和长江学者和创新团队发展计划（批准号：IRT1018）资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Key laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;

3.
Meteorology Department of 94195 PLA, Lintao 730500, China

Funds: Project supported by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201206009), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41105070, 41005051), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955301), and the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. IRT1018).

参考文献

[1]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2]	Chen M X, Ji L R 1989 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 47 147 (in Chinese)[陈明行, 纪立人 1989 气象学报 47 147]
[3]
[4]
[5]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese)[封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[6]
[7]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese)[何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 969]
[8]	Dai X G, Pu Y F, Wang P 2011 Adv. Meteor. Sci. Technol. 1 26 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 浦一芬, 汪萍 2011 气象科技进展 1 26]
[9]
[10]	Tibaldi S, Palmer T N, Brankovic C, U Cubasch 1990 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 116 835
[11]
[12]
[13]	Anderson J L, Van den Dool H M 1994 Mon. Wea. Rev. 122 507
[14]	Vitart F 2004 Mon Wea Rev 132 2761
[15]
[16]	Seo K H, Schemm J K E, Jones C, Moorthi S 2005 Climate Dyn. 25 265
[17]
[18]
[19]	He W P, Wang L, Wan S Q, Liao L J, He T 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 119201 (in Chinese)[何文平, 王柳, 万仕全, 廖乐建, 何涛 2012 61 119201]
[20]	Zheng Z H 2013 Adv Meteor Sci Technol. 3 25 (in Chinese)[郑志海 2013 气象科技进展 3 25]
[21]
[22]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P, Chou J F 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2389 (in Chinese)[封国林, 董文杰, 李建平, 丑纪范 2004 53 2389]
[23]
[24]
[25]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 3258 (in Chinese)[何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2004 53 3258]
[26]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese)[封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[27]
[28]	Miyakoda K, Sirutis J, Ploshay J 1986 Mon. Wea. Rev. 114 2363
[29]
[30]	Smith T M, Livezey R E 1999 J. Climate 12 273
[31]
[32]	Bennett A F, Leslie L M 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 453
[33]
[34]	Schemm J E, Faller A J 1986 Mon. Wea. Rev. 114 2402
[35]
[36]
[37]	Saha S 1992 Mon. Wea. Rev. 120 345
[38]
[39]	Chou J F 1974 Sci. China A 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[40]
[41]	Qiu C J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[42]
[43]	Huang J P, Chou J F, Yi Y H 1989 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 47 483 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 丑纪范, 衣育红 1989 气象学报 47 483]
[44]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. China B 2 216 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 王绍武 1991 中国科学 2 216]
[45]
[46]	Huang J P, Yi Y H 1991 Sci. China B 3 331 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 衣育红 1991 中国科学 3 331]
[47]
[48]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 119 547
[49]
[50]	Bao M, Ni Y Q, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Sci. Bull. 49 1112 (in Chinese)[鲍名, 倪允琪, 丑纪范 2004 科学通报 49 1112]
[51]
[52]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2006 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 64 315 (in Chinese)[任宏利, 丑纪范 2006 气象学报 64 315]
[53]
[54]
[55]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)[郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[56]
[57]	Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Scientia Meteor. Sinica 10 569 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 10 569]
[58]
[59]	Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Chou J, Ren H L 2010 J. Appl. Meteor Sci. 21 139 (in Chinese )[郑志海, 封国林, 丑纪范, 任宏利 2010 应用气象学报 21 139]
[60]	Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199203 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 61 199203]
[61]
[62]
[63]	Zheng Z H, Huang J P, Feng G L, Chou J F 2013 Sci. China A 6 878
[64]	Yu H, Huang J P, Chou J F 2013 Mon. Wea. Rev. (in press)
[65]
[66]
[67]	Barker T W, Horel J D 1989 Mon. Wea. Rev. 117 2835
[68]
[69]	Jung T 2005 Quart. J. Roy Meteor Soc. 131 1045
[70]	Zhang D M, Ji L R, Li J L 1997 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 21 141 (in Chinese)[张道民, 纪立人, 李金龙 1997 大气科学 21 141]
[71]
[72]	Liu H Z, Teng Q B 1999 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 57 143 (in Chinese)[刘还珠, 滕俏彬 1999 气象学报 57 143]
[73]
[74]
[75]	Zhong J, Huang Si X, Fei J F Du H D 2011 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 35 1169 (in Chinese)[钟剑, 黄思训, 费建芳杜华栋 2011 大气科学 35 1169]
[76]	Qiu X X, Wang D Y, Chen B F 2012 Meteor Mon. 8 526 (in Chinese)[邱学兴, 王东勇, 陈宝峰 2012 气象 8 526]
[77]
[78]
[79]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109202 (in Chinese)[侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 60 109202]
[80]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Qian Z H, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese)[侯威, 章大全, 钱忠华, 封国林 2011 60 109203]
[81]
[82]
[83]	Qian Z H, Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109204 (in Chinese)[钱忠华, 侯威, 杨萍, 封国林 2011 60 109204]
[84]
[85]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 1269 (in Chinese)[张宗婕, 钱维宏 2012 大气科学 36 1269]
[86]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 559 (in Chinese)[龚道溢, 王绍武 2003 地理学报 58 559]
[87]
[88]
[89]	Li Y, Lu R Y, He J H 2007 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 31 505 (in Chinese)[李勇, 陆日宇, 何金海 2007 大气科学 31 505]
[90]
[91]	Wang B, Wu Z W, Chang C P, Liu J 2010 J. Climate 23 1495
[92]	Chen P Y, Ni Y Q, Yin Y H 2001 J. Trop. Meteor 17 371 (in Chinese) [陈佩燕, 倪允琪, 殷永红 2001 热带气象学报 17 371]
[93]
[94]	Wu B Y, Bian L G, Zhang R H 2004 Chinese Journal of Polar Research 16 211 (in Chinese)[武炳义, 卞林根, 张人禾 2004 极地研究 16 211]
[95]
[96]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1988 Plateau Meteor 7 264 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 丑纪范 1988 高原气象 7 264]
[97]
[98]	Huang J P Gao J D, Chou J F 1990 Plateau Meteor 9 88 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 郜吉东, 丑纪范 1990 高原气象 9 88]
[99]
[100]
[101]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1990 Sci. China B 33 851
[102]	Reichler T J, Roads J O 2003 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 10 211
[103]
[104]
[105]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[106]
[107]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Climate Dyn. 32 123
[108]
[109]	Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D 1996 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77 437
[110]
[111]	Huang J Y 1989 Meteor Mon. 15 3 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑 1989 气象 15 3]
[112]	Shi N 2009 Meteorological statistical forecast(Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp247-251 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京:气象出版社) 第247251页]
[113]
[114]	58 Wu Z W, Li J P, Jiang Z H, He J H 2011 Climate Dyn. 37 1661
[115]
[116]
[117]	59 Liu J P, Curry J A, Wang H J, Song M R, Horton R M 2012 Proc. Natl. Acad Sci. 109 4074
[118]
[119]	60 Wu B Y, Su J Z, Zhang R H 2011 Chin. Sci. Bull. 56 235 (in Chinese) [武炳义, 苏京志, 张人禾 2011 科学通报 56 235]
[120]
[121]	Yang L N 2013 M. S. Thesis (Beijing: Chinese Academy Meteorological Sciences) (in Chinese) [杨柳妮 2013 硕士学位论文(北京: 中国气象科学研究院)]

施引文献

[1]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2]	Chen M X, Ji L R 1989 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 47 147 (in Chinese)[陈明行, 纪立人 1989 气象学报 47 147]
[3]
[4]
[5]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese)[封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[6]
[7]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese)[何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 969]
[8]	Dai X G, Pu Y F, Wang P 2011 Adv. Meteor. Sci. Technol. 1 26 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 浦一芬, 汪萍 2011 气象科技进展 1 26]
[9]
[10]	Tibaldi S, Palmer T N, Brankovic C, U Cubasch 1990 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 116 835
[11]
[12]
[13]	Anderson J L, Van den Dool H M 1994 Mon. Wea. Rev. 122 507
[14]	Vitart F 2004 Mon Wea Rev 132 2761
[15]
[16]	Seo K H, Schemm J K E, Jones C, Moorthi S 2005 Climate Dyn. 25 265
[17]
[18]
[19]	He W P, Wang L, Wan S Q, Liao L J, He T 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 119201 (in Chinese)[何文平, 王柳, 万仕全, 廖乐建, 何涛 2012 61 119201]
[20]	Zheng Z H 2013 Adv Meteor Sci Technol. 3 25 (in Chinese)[郑志海 2013 气象科技进展 3 25]
[21]
[22]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P, Chou J F 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 2389 (in Chinese)[封国林, 董文杰, 李建平, 丑纪范 2004 53 2389]
[23]
[24]
[25]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Acta Phys. Sin. 53 3258 (in Chinese)[何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2004 53 3258]
[26]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese)[封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[27]
[28]	Miyakoda K, Sirutis J, Ploshay J 1986 Mon. Wea. Rev. 114 2363
[29]
[30]	Smith T M, Livezey R E 1999 J. Climate 12 273
[31]
[32]	Bennett A F, Leslie L M 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 453
[33]
[34]	Schemm J E, Faller A J 1986 Mon. Wea. Rev. 114 2402
[35]
[36]
[37]	Saha S 1992 Mon. Wea. Rev. 120 345
[38]
[39]	Chou J F 1974 Sci. China A 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[40]
[41]	Qiu C J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[42]
[43]	Huang J P, Chou J F, Yi Y H 1989 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 47 483 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 丑纪范, 衣育红 1989 气象学报 47 483]
[44]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. China B 2 216 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 王绍武 1991 中国科学 2 216]
[45]
[46]	Huang J P, Yi Y H 1991 Sci. China B 3 331 (in Chinese)[黄建平, 衣育红 1991 中国科学 3 331]
[47]
[48]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 119 547
[49]
[50]	Bao M, Ni Y Q, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Sci. Bull. 49 1112 (in Chinese)[鲍名, 倪允琪, 丑纪范 2004 科学通报 49 1112]
[51]
[52]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2006 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 64 315 (in Chinese)[任宏利, 丑纪范 2006 气象学报 64 315]
[53]
[54]
[55]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)[郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[56]
[57]	Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Scientia Meteor. Sinica 10 569 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 10 569]
[58]
[59]	Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Chou J, Ren H L 2010 J. Appl. Meteor Sci. 21 139 (in Chinese )[郑志海, 封国林, 丑纪范, 任宏利 2010 应用气象学报 21 139]
[60]	Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199203 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 61 199203]
[61]
[62]
[63]	Zheng Z H, Huang J P, Feng G L, Chou J F 2013 Sci. China A 6 878
[64]	Yu H, Huang J P, Chou J F 2013 Mon. Wea. Rev. (in press)
[65]
[66]
[67]	Barker T W, Horel J D 1989 Mon. Wea. Rev. 117 2835
[68]
[69]	Jung T 2005 Quart. J. Roy Meteor Soc. 131 1045
[70]	Zhang D M, Ji L R, Li J L 1997 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 21 141 (in Chinese)[张道民, 纪立人, 李金龙 1997 大气科学 21 141]
[71]
[72]	Liu H Z, Teng Q B 1999 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 57 143 (in Chinese)[刘还珠, 滕俏彬 1999 气象学报 57 143]
[73]
[74]
[75]	Zhong J, Huang Si X, Fei J F Du H D 2011 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 35 1169 (in Chinese)[钟剑, 黄思训, 费建芳杜华栋 2011 大气科学 35 1169]
[76]	Qiu X X, Wang D Y, Chen B F 2012 Meteor Mon. 8 526 (in Chinese)[邱学兴, 王东勇, 陈宝峰 2012 气象 8 526]
[77]
[78]
[79]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109202 (in Chinese)[侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 60 109202]
[80]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Qian Z H, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese)[侯威, 章大全, 钱忠华, 封国林 2011 60 109203]
[81]
[82]
[83]	Qian Z H, Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109204 (in Chinese)[钱忠华, 侯威, 杨萍, 封国林 2011 60 109204]
[84]
[85]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 1269 (in Chinese)[张宗婕, 钱维宏 2012 大气科学 36 1269]
[86]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 559 (in Chinese)[龚道溢, 王绍武 2003 地理学报 58 559]
[87]
[88]
[89]	Li Y, Lu R Y, He J H 2007 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 31 505 (in Chinese)[李勇, 陆日宇, 何金海 2007 大气科学 31 505]
[90]
[91]	Wang B, Wu Z W, Chang C P, Liu J 2010 J. Climate 23 1495
[92]	Chen P Y, Ni Y Q, Yin Y H 2001 J. Trop. Meteor 17 371 (in Chinese) [陈佩燕, 倪允琪, 殷永红 2001 热带气象学报 17 371]
[93]
[94]	Wu B Y, Bian L G, Zhang R H 2004 Chinese Journal of Polar Research 16 211 (in Chinese)[武炳义, 卞林根, 张人禾 2004 极地研究 16 211]
[95]
[96]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1988 Plateau Meteor 7 264 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 丑纪范 1988 高原气象 7 264]
[97]
[98]	Huang J P Gao J D, Chou J F 1990 Plateau Meteor 9 88 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 郜吉东, 丑纪范 1990 高原气象 9 88]
[99]
[100]
[101]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1990 Sci. China B 33 851
[102]	Reichler T J, Roads J O 2003 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 10 211
[103]
[104]
[105]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[106]
[107]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Climate Dyn. 32 123
[108]
[109]	Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D 1996 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77 437
[110]
[111]	Huang J Y 1989 Meteor Mon. 15 3 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑 1989 气象 15 3]
[112]	Shi N 2009 Meteorological statistical forecast(Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp247-251 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京:气象出版社) 第247251页]
[113]
[114]	58 Wu Z W, Li J P, Jiang Z H, He J H 2011 Climate Dyn. 37 1661
[115]
[116]
[117]	59 Liu J P, Curry J A, Wang H J, Song M R, Horton R M 2012 Proc. Natl. Acad Sci. 109 4074
[118]
[119]	60 Wu B Y, Su J Z, Zhang R H 2011 Chin. Sci. Bull. 56 235 (in Chinese) [武炳义, 苏京志, 张人禾 2011 科学通报 56 235]
[120]
[121]	Yang L N 2013 M. S. Thesis (Beijing: Chinese Academy Meteorological Sciences) (in Chinese) [杨柳妮 2013 硕士学位论文(北京: 中国气象科学研究院)]

[1]	梁丁, 顾斌, 丁瑞强, 李建平, 钟权加. 基于Lorenz模型的集合预报与单一预报的比较研究. , 2018, 67(7): 070501. doi: 10.7498/aps.67.20172144
[2]	李保生, 丁瑞强, 李建平, 钟权加. 强迫Lorenz系统的可预报性研究. , 2017, 66(6): 060503. doi: 10.7498/aps.66.060503
[3]	王启光, 苏海晶, 支蓉, 冯爱霞. 长江中下游汛期降水模式预测误差相似性及其可预报度. , 2014, 63(11): 119202. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.119202
[4]	黎爱兵, 张立凤, 项杰. 外强迫对Lorenz系统初值可预报性的影响. , 2012, 61(11): 119202. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.119202
[5]	郑志海, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范. 基于延伸期可预报性的集合预报方法和数值试验. , 2012, 61(19): 199203. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.199203
[6]	熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国. 汛期降水相似动力预报模式误差主分量相似预报方法. , 2012, 61(14): 149204. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.149204
[7]	冉令坤, 周玉淑, 杨文霞. 强对流降水过程动力因子分析和预报研究. , 2011, 60(9): 099201. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.099201
[8]	赵延来, 黄思训, 杜华栋, 仲跻芹. 正则化方法同化多普勒天气雷达资料及对降雨预报的影响. , 2011, 60(7): 079202. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.079202
[9]	张永明, 齐维贵. 供热负荷时间序列混沌特性分析及预报模型研究. , 2011, 60(10): 100508. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.100508
[10]	杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林. 动态最优多因子组合的华北汛期降水模式误差估计及预报. , 2011, 60(2): 029204. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.029204
[11]	惠娟, 王自娟, 惠俊英, 何文翔. 双基地混响平均强度理论及仿真预报. , 2009, 58(8): 5491-5500. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.5491
[12]	郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平. 基于季节气候可预报分量的相似误差订正方法和数值实验. , 2009, 58(10): 7359-7367. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.7359
[13]	权东晓, 裴昌幸, 朱畅华, 刘丹. 一种新的预报单光子源诱骗态量子密钥分发方案. , 2008, 57(9): 5600-5604. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.5600
[14]	丁瑞强, 李建平. 混沌系统可预报期限随初始误差变化规律研究. , 2008, 57(12): 7494-7499. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.7494
[15]	王晶, 冯学尚. 日冕物质抛射引起地磁扰动的分类预报. , 2007, 56(4): 2466-2474. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.2466
[16]	何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平. Lorenz系统的可预报性. , 2006, 55(2): 969-977. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.969
[17]	任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 丑纪范. 基于多个参考态更新的动力相似预报方法及应用. , 2006, 55(8): 4388-4396. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.4388
[18]	封国林, 董文杰. 集合预报物理基础的探讨. , 2003, 52(9): 2347-2353. doi: 10.7498/aps.52.2347
[19]	封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范. 混沌系统中可预报性的研究. , 2001, 50(4): 606-611. doi: 10.7498/aps.50.606
[20]	张铁铮. 磁暴二倍法预报地震的探索. , 1976, 25(5): 455-459. doi: 10.7498/aps.25.455

计量

文章访问数: 6965
PDF下载量: 583
被引次数: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

搜索

留言板