基于模式误差分布特征的中国夏季旱涝预测可信度研究

杨杰; 龚志强; 赵俊虎; 许遐祯

doi:10.7498/aps.63.149202

摘要

基于美国气候预报中心组合降雨分析资料对国家气候中心海气耦合模式多年夏季降水预报误差进行统计分析，以揭示模式预报误差的分布规律及特征. 研究发现，模式预报误差分布特征满足正态分布，基于误差分布特征分析模式对中国夏季降水的预测能力，通过误差分布的高斯拟合曲线特征对比模式预报与动力统计方法的预测技巧，进而得到动力统计方法改进误差分布特征的两种类型：1）变幅型改进；2）均值型改进. 在此基础上，根据模式误差的统计特征提出了一种新的旱涝预测可信度计算方法，用于定量化地评估动力统计方法在不同地区的预测可信度大小，并应用于实际预测. 最后以2012和2013年夏季降水为例，给出了实况、预测以及可信度检验. 结果显示该方法能较好地反映出预测的不确定性，较其他检验方法更具针对性，对异常降水的预测可信度反映更为准确，验证了方法的有效性，可进一步提高动力统计方法的预测服务水平.

关键词:

Abstract

In this paper, we made some statistical analyses on precipitation prediction errors of coupled global climate model of National Climate Center based on CPC merged analysis of precipitation. Through the statistics of the forecast results of summer precipitation in many years and the errors, we find that the distribution of the model prediction errors satisfies the Gaussian distribution. Based on the Gaussian distribution characteristics, the ability to predict the mode for summer precipitation in China can be analyzed and compared. The forecast performance of the dynamic-statistics scheme is significantly better than that of system error correction scheme of the model. The dynamic-statistics optimal combination of factor revise is corrected, relative to error distribution pattern of the system revised forecast, and there are obtained two kinds of error distribution characteristics: 1) improvement of the amplitude; 2) improvement of the displacement. Based on the statistical characteristics of the prediction error, measure of the credibility of model forecast results is proposed to quantitatively assess the credibility of the numerical model forecast results in different regions. Taking the summer precipitations in 2012 and 2013 for example, we analyze the credibility of actual observations, prediction and drought or flood level. Comparing actual observations and prediction, we find that there is a good consistency where the credibility of them is larger, while there are many bad predictions in the region where the credibility of them is smaller. What is more, compared with other reliability test method, the credibility of the abnormal precipitation forecast by this method is more accurate, showing the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
江苏省气象局气候中心, 南京 210000;

2.
中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081

基金项目: 公益性行业科研专项（批准号：GYHY201306021，GYHY201106016）、国家自然科学基金（批准号：40930952，41375069）和国家重点基础研究发展计划（批准号：2012CB955902，2013CB430204）资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Jiangsu Climate Center, Jiangsu Meteorological Administration, Nanjing 210000, China;

2.
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: Project supported by the Special Scientifc Research Project for Public Interest of China (Grant Nos. GYHY201306021, GYHY201106016), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952, 41375069), and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955902, 2013CB430204).

参考文献

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[31]	Wei F Y 2011 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 22 1 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2011 应用气象学报 22 1]
[32]	Fan K, Wang H J, Choi Y J 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 2900 (in Chinese) [范可, 王会军, Choi Young-Jean 2007 科学通报 52 2900]
[33]	Ji F, Zhao J H, Shen Q, Zhi R, Gong Z Q 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 059201 (in Chinese) [季飞, 赵俊虎, 申茜, 支蓉, 龚志强 2014 63 059201]
[34]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 099206 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 龚志强, 支蓉 2013 62 099206]
[35]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. B 12 1076
[36]	Zhang Z S, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Hu J G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 019201
[37]	Wang K, Feng G L, Zeng Y X, Wang X J 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202
[38]	Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. B 15 882
[39]	Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q, Wang L N, Liu Y M, Shi X L, Zhang Z Q, Liu Y M, Hu G Q, Dang H Y, Zhang F, Chen L J, Sun C R, Zhao Q G, Dong M 2005 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 6 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 张培群, 李清泉, 王兰宁, 刘益民, 史学丽, 张祖强, 刘一鸣, 胡国权, 党鸿雁, 张芳, 陈丽娟, 孙除荣, 赵其庚, 董敏 2005 应用气象学报 6 1]
[40]	Li W J, Chen L J 1999 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 57 338 (in Chinese) [李维京, 陈丽娟 1999 气象学报 57 338]
[41]	Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 9 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 9 178]
[42]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 51 118 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武 1993 气象学报 51 118]
[43]	Li F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 183 (in Chinese) [李芳 2012 气象学报 70 183]
[44]	Wang H J, Fan K 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 548
[45]	Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林, 杨杰, 万仕全, 侯威, 支蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[46]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 59 664]

施引文献

[1]	Huang R H, Cai R S, Chen J L, Zhou L T 2006 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 30 730 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 蔡榕硕, 陈际龙, 周连童 2006 大气科学 30 730]
[2]	Chou J F, Xu M 2001 Chin. Sci. Bull. 46 890 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 徐明 2001 科学通报 46 890]
[3]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[4]	Barnett T P, Preisendorfer R W 1978 J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1771
[5]	Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 93 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 93]
[6]	Chou J F 1974 Sci. China 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[7]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[8]	Chou J F, Ren H L 2006 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 17 240 (in Chinese) [丑纪范, 任宏利 2006 应用气象学报 17 240]
[9]	Qiu C J, Chou J F 1987 Sci. China B 17 903 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1987 中国科学 (B辑) 17 903]
[10]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[11]	Huang J P, Chou J F 1990 Sci. China B 33 851
[12]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1992 Sci. China B 35 207
[13]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 51 118 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武 1993 气象学报 51 118]
[14]	Ren H L, Zhang P Q, Li W J, Chou J F 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 4388 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 丑纪范 2006 55 4388]
[15]	Gong J D, Chou J F 1999 Plateau Meteorol. 18 392 (in Chinese) [龚建东, 丑纪范 1999 高原气象 18 392]
[16]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China D 37 1101 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学(D辑) 37 1101]
[17]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[18]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 (B辑) 23 104]
[19]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 413
[20]	Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏凤英, 丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[21]	Feng G L, Cao H X, Dong W J, Chou J F 2001 Chin. Phys. 10 1004
[22]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[23]	Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 25 316
[24]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149204 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 61 149204]
[25]	Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[26]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7367 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7367]
[27]	Zhao J H, Feng G L, Yang J, Zhi R 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 1021 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 封国林, 杨杰, 支蓉, 王启光 2012 气象学报 70 1021]
[28]	Feng G L, Zhao J H, Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Yang J, Xiong K G 2013 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 24 656 (in Chinese) [封国林, 赵俊虎, 支蓉, 龚志强, 郑志海, 杨杰, 熊开国 2013 应用气象学报 24 656]
[29]	Chen L J, Li W J, Zhang P J, Wang J G 2003 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 14 648 (in Chinese) [陈丽娟, 李维京, 张培群, 王锦贵 2003 应用气象学报 14 648]
[30]	Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Tropical Meteorol. 26 483 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 483]
[31]	Wei F Y 2011 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 22 1 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2011 应用气象学报 22 1]
[32]	Fan K, Wang H J, Choi Y J 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 2900 (in Chinese) [范可, 王会军, Choi Young-Jean 2007 科学通报 52 2900]
[33]	Ji F, Zhao J H, Shen Q, Zhi R, Gong Z Q 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 059201 (in Chinese) [季飞, 赵俊虎, 申茜, 支蓉, 龚志强 2014 63 059201]
[34]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 099206 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 杨杰, 龚志强, 支蓉 2013 62 099206]
[35]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. B 12 1076
[36]	Zhang Z S, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Hu J G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 019201
[37]	Wang K, Feng G L, Zeng Y X, Wang X J 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202
[38]	Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. B 15 882
[39]	Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q, Wang L N, Liu Y M, Shi X L, Zhang Z Q, Liu Y M, Hu G Q, Dang H Y, Zhang F, Chen L J, Sun C R, Zhao Q G, Dong M 2005 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 6 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 张培群, 李清泉, 王兰宁, 刘益民, 史学丽, 张祖强, 刘一鸣, 胡国权, 党鸿雁, 张芳, 陈丽娟, 孙除荣, 赵其庚, 董敏 2005 应用气象学报 6 1]
[40]	Li W J, Chen L J 1999 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 57 338 (in Chinese) [李维京, 陈丽娟 1999 气象学报 57 338]
[41]	Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 9 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 9 178]
[42]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 51 118 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 衣育红, 王绍武 1993 气象学报 51 118]
[43]	Li F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 183 (in Chinese) [李芳 2012 气象学报 70 183]
[44]	Wang H J, Fan K 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 548
[45]	Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林, 杨杰, 万仕全, 侯威, 支蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[46]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 59 664]

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