黑潮及其延伸区海表温度变化特征与大气环流相关性的初步分析

王闪闪; 管玉平; Li Zhi-Jin; Chao Yi; 黄建平

doi:10.7498/aps.61.169201

摘要

为了研究黑潮海表温度的时间变化特征, 以预测黑潮海表温度变化趋势, 本文利用哈德莱中心1941-2009年海表温度资料定义了一个黑潮温度指数KI, 来表征吐噶喇海峡以东黑潮及其延伸区的海温变化. 由小波分析得到, KI具有准3、 7年的年际振荡特征和准20年的年代际变化特征, 此外KI还具有明显的季节锁相特征. KI与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有很好的滞后相关性. 通过美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心再分析资料合成分析发现KI为正异常时, 赤道东太平洋海温异常变暖(即厄尔尼诺发生), 哈德莱环流加强, 使得西风动量的输送增强, 造成阿留申低压加深(PDO为暖相), 进而冷却黑潮延伸区的海表温度并使黑潮延伸区向东延伸, 这一"ENSO-PDO-黑潮海温变化"的过程具有滞后性, 从而使得ENSO指数、PDO指数可以作为黑潮温度变化的前兆因子, 对于预测黑潮海温变化及周边气候均具有一定的意义.

关键词:

Abstract

A sea surface temperature (SST) based index, denoted as KI, is designed to characterize the holistic feature of Kuroshio east of the Tokara-kaikyo and its extension on the purpose of predict its SST trend. The KI is calculated on the base of the Hadley Center's monthly SSTs during the period 1941-2009. The wavelet analysis showed that the KI displays inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations, dominated by quasi-triennial, quasi 7-yr and 20-yr time scales. In addition, the KI is shown to be phase-locking to seasonal cycles. It is found that there are significant temporally-lag correlations between the KI and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index as well as between the KI and the ENSO index. A set of composition analyses using the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses indicate that when the KI shows a positive anomaly, the SST becomes abnormally warm in the equatorial eastern. Pacific, the Hadley circulation is intensified, and consequently the transportation of the westerly momentum is enhanced. The enhanced Hadley circulation and transportation of the westerly momentum give rise to the deepened Aleutian low pressure, then cool the Kuroshio extension and the north Pacific basin and cause the KE extend east. The above " ENSO-PDO-Kuroshio" process need some response time, that is to say, we can forecast the SST variation on the Kuroshio on the basis of the ENSO and PDO, which is very significant to predict the climate in China.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;

2.
中国科学院南海海洋研究所, 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室, 广州 510301;

3.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA91109, USA

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号: 2007CB411801)和JIFRESSE/UCLA, USA 资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

2.
State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China;

3.
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena CA91109, USA

Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2007CB411801) and the JIFRESSE/UCLA, USA.

参考文献

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[33]	Wyrtki K, Magaard L, Hagar J 1976 J. Geophys. Res. 81 2641
[34]	Qiu B 2002 J. Oceanogr. 58 57
[35]	Da Silva A, Young C, Levitus S 1994 Atlas of Surface Marine Data 1994 (Vol.1) (Washington: US Gov. Printing Office) p83
[36]	Miyazawa Y, Guo X Y, Yamagata T 2004 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 34 2203
[37]	Qiu B 2000 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30 1486
[38]	Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N, Yamagata T 1999 Nature 401 360
[39]	Miller A J, Cayan D R, Bamett T P, Graham N E, Oberhuber J M 1994 J. Oceanogr. 7 21
[40]	An S I, Wang B 2000 J. Climate 13 2044
[41]	Zhang Q L, Hou Y J, Qi Q H, Zheng D M, Cheng M H 2009 Advances in Marine Science 26 126 (in Chinese) [张启龙, 侯一筠, 齐庆华, 郑冬梅, 程明华 2009 海洋科学进展 26 126]
[42]	Gu D J, Wang D X, Yuan J N 2004 J. Trop. Ocea. 23 30 (in Chinese) [谷德军, 王东晓, 袁金南 2004 热带海洋学报 23 30]
[43]	Zhao Z G 2000 Summer Drought and Environmental Field in China (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 101-103 (in Chinese) [赵振国 2000 中国夏季早涝及环境场 (北京: 北京气象出版社) 第101-103页]
[44]	Li Y K 1989 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 9 263 (in Chinese) [李永康 1989 气象科学 9 263]
[45]	Liu Z, Alexander M A 2007 Rev. Geophys. 45 RG2005
[46]	Bjerkness J 1966 Tellus 18 820
[47]	Bjerkness J 1969 Mon. Wea. Rev. 97 163
[48]	Wang S W 1987 Beitr. Phys. Atmosph. 60 478
[49]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 1998 Acta Oceanol. Sin. 20 44 (in Chinese) [龚道溢, 王绍武 1998 海洋学报 2044]
[50]	Zhou B T, Wang H J 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 2194 (in Chinese) [周波涛, 王会军 2007 科学通报 52 2194]
[51]	Guan B, Nigam S 2008 J. Climate 21 2790

施引文献

[1]	Yasuda I 2003 J. Oceanogr. 59 389
[2]	Sekine Y, Miyamoto S 2002 J. Oceanogr. 58 611
[3]	Qiu B, Chen S M 2011 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 41 503
[4]	Yasuda T, Kitamura Y 2003 J. Oceanogr. 59 279
[5]	Kwon Y O, Alexander M A, Nicholas A B, Frankignoul C, Nakamura H, Qiu B, Thompson L 2010 J. Climate 23 3249
[6]	Wang S W, Zhao Z C 1980 Acta Oceanol. Sin. 2 27 (in Chinese) [王绍武, 赵宗慈 1980 海洋学报 2 27]
[7]	Ni D H, Sun Z B, Chen H S, Zhu W J 2004 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteo. 27 310 (in Chinese) [倪东鸿, 孙照渤, 陈海山, 朱伟军 2004 南京气象学院学报 27 310]
[8]	Li Y F, Ding Y H 2002 Climatic Environ. Res. 7 88 (in Chinese) [李跃凤, 丁一汇 2002 气候与环境研究 7 88]
[9]	Weng X C, Zhang Q L, Yang Y L, Yan T Z 1996 Oceanol. Limnol. Sin. 27 237 (in Chinese) [翁学传, 张启龙, 杨玉玲, 颜廷壮 1996 海洋与湖沼 27 237]
[10]	Zhang Q L, Weng X C, Cheng M H 1999 Plateau Meteor. 4 575 (in Chinese) [张启龙, 翁学传, 程明华 1999高原气象 4 575]
[11]	Zhao F M, Zhu X J, Li F, Wang Z Q, Gu J Y, Wang M L 2007 Meteor. Environ. Sci. 30 (Z1) 28 (in Chinese) [赵斐苗, 朱鑫君, 李飞, 王志强, 谷继永, 王美兰 2007气象与环境科学 30 (增刊) 28]
[12]	Kelly K A, Dong S 2004 Geophys. Monogr. 147 347
[13]	Dawe J T, Thompson L 2007 J. Climate 20 2092
[14]	Chelton D B, Schlax M G 1996 Science 272 234
[15]	Ceballos L I, Lorenzo E D, Hoyos C D, Schneider N, Taguchi B 2009 J. Climate 22 5163
[16]	Qiu B, Chen S 2005 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 35 2090
[17]	Dawe J T, Thompson L 2007 J. Climate 20 2092
[18]	Trenberth K E, Branstator G W, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau N C, Ropelewski C 1998 J. Geophys. Res. 103(C7) 291
[19]	Liu Z, Alexander M A 2007 Rev. Geophys. 45 RG2005
[20]	Sun X P, Wang Y P, Yuan Q K, Xu H D 1991 Oceanol. Limnol. Sin. 22 524 (in Chinese) [孙湘平, 王元培, 袁启科, 徐洪达 1991 海洋与湖沼 22 524]
[21]	Kawai H 1969 Deep-Sea Research 16 109
[22]	Kawabe M 1995 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 25 3103
[23]	Feng M, Mitsudera H, Yoshikawa Y 2000 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30 2257
[24]	Qiu B, Miao W F 2000 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30 2124
[25]	Guan B X 1964 Oceanol. Limnol. Sin. 6 229 (in Chinese) [管秉贤 1964 海洋与湖沼 6 229]
[26]	Lin K, Tang Y X, Guo B H 1995 Oceanol. Limnol. Sin. 26 247 (in Chinese) [林葵, 汤毓祥, 郭炳火 1995海洋与湖沼 26 247]
[27]	Chen H X, Yuan Y L, Hua F 2006 Chin. Sci. Bull. 51 730 ( in Chinese) [陈红霞, 袁业立, 华锋 2006 科学通报 51 730]
[28]	Jia Y L, Liu Q Y, Liu W, Lin X P 2004 Oceanol. Limnol. Sin. 35 507 (in Chinese) [贾英来, 刘秦玉, 刘伟, 林霄沛 2004 海洋与湖沼 35 507]
[29]	Guan B X 1979 Oceanol. Limnol. Sin. 10 299 (in Chinese) [管秉贤 1979 海洋与湖沼 10 299]
[30]	Ichikawa H, Beardsley R C 1993 Deep Sea Research Part I- Oceanographic Research Papers 40 583
[31]	Imawaki S, Uchida H, Ichikawa H, Fukasawa M, Umatani S, Asuka Group 2001 Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 17
[32]	Kawabe 1996 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 26 2449
[33]	Wyrtki K, Magaard L, Hagar J 1976 J. Geophys. Res. 81 2641
[34]	Qiu B 2002 J. Oceanogr. 58 57
[35]	Da Silva A, Young C, Levitus S 1994 Atlas of Surface Marine Data 1994 (Vol.1) (Washington: US Gov. Printing Office) p83
[36]	Miyazawa Y, Guo X Y, Yamagata T 2004 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 34 2203
[37]	Qiu B 2000 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30 1486
[38]	Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N, Yamagata T 1999 Nature 401 360
[39]	Miller A J, Cayan D R, Bamett T P, Graham N E, Oberhuber J M 1994 J. Oceanogr. 7 21
[40]	An S I, Wang B 2000 J. Climate 13 2044
[41]	Zhang Q L, Hou Y J, Qi Q H, Zheng D M, Cheng M H 2009 Advances in Marine Science 26 126 (in Chinese) [张启龙, 侯一筠, 齐庆华, 郑冬梅, 程明华 2009 海洋科学进展 26 126]
[42]	Gu D J, Wang D X, Yuan J N 2004 J. Trop. Ocea. 23 30 (in Chinese) [谷德军, 王东晓, 袁金南 2004 热带海洋学报 23 30]
[43]	Zhao Z G 2000 Summer Drought and Environmental Field in China (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 101-103 (in Chinese) [赵振国 2000 中国夏季早涝及环境场 (北京: 北京气象出版社) 第101-103页]
[44]	Li Y K 1989 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 9 263 (in Chinese) [李永康 1989 气象科学 9 263]
[45]	Liu Z, Alexander M A 2007 Rev. Geophys. 45 RG2005
[46]	Bjerkness J 1966 Tellus 18 820
[47]	Bjerkness J 1969 Mon. Wea. Rev. 97 163
[48]	Wang S W 1987 Beitr. Phys. Atmosph. 60 478
[49]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 1998 Acta Oceanol. Sin. 20 44 (in Chinese) [龚道溢, 王绍武 1998 海洋学报 2044]
[50]	Zhou B T, Wang H J 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 2194 (in Chinese) [周波涛, 王会军 2007 科学通报 52 2194]
[51]	Guan B, Nigam S 2008 J. Climate 21 2790

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