-
利用去趋势波动分析方法对中国四季日平均气温观测资料进行了研究, 发现四季日平均气温均具有很好的长程相关性特征, 中国西部地区尤其是新疆和西藏的长程相关性较强. 基于观测资料中的这种长程相关性特征, 评估了北京气候中心气候系统模式对中国四季日平均气温的模拟性能, 发现该模式能够较好地反映中国四季日平均气温的长程相关性特征. 总体而言, 模式对春季的日平均气温的长程相关性模拟效果最好, 仅对江南地区的长程相关性的模拟较差; 夏季, 模式模拟误差较大的地区包括中国中东部地区及西藏大部, 其中华北南部、黄淮西部、江南大部、华南等地模拟效果最差; 秋季, 模式对东部沿海及东北大部、华北西南部等地模拟的长程相关性偏强, 而在西北大部模拟的长程相关性明显偏弱; 冬季, 除东部沿海地区模拟的长程相关性偏强外, 全国其余大部分地区接近观测或偏弱, 其中西北、西南、华南北部、江南南部、东北北部偏弱明显, 青藏高原西部偏弱最为显著.In the present paper, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is first used to analyze the daily average temperature records in four seasons in China, and the results show that the seasonal temperature records exhibit long-range correlation in China, especially in Xinjiang and Xizang in western China. Based on the long-range correlation in observational temperature records, we use DFA to evaluate the performances of the simulated daily average temperature series in four seasons in China by Beijing Climate Center climate system model (BCC_CSM) (1.1 m), and find that the BCC_CSM (1.1 m) can reflect the long-range correlations in different seasons. In general, the simulated results are best in spring except for the bad performance in Jiangnan. In summer, the simulation performance is poor in middle-east China and most areas in Tibet, especially in the southern North China, western Huanghai, Jiangnan and South China. The long-rang correlation of the simulated data for autumn is stronger in Northeast China, southeast North China, while weaker in the most of Northwest China. In winter, except for the eastern seaboard, the simulated long-range correlations of daily temperature are weaker than that of observational records in most China. And the simulated performance is poor in Northwest China, Southwest China, northern South China, southern Jiangnan and northern Northeast China, especially in the western Tibet.
-
Keywords:
- detrended fluctuation analysis /
- scaling exponent /
- long-range correlation /
- model performance evaluation
[1] Bunde E K, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich Y 1996 Physica A 231 393
[2] Bunde E K, Bunde A, Havlin S, Roman H E, Goldreich Y, Schellnhuber H J 1998 Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 729
[3] Talkner P, Weber R O 2000 Phys. Rev. E 62 150
[4] Eichner J F, Bunde E K, Bunde A, Havlin S 2003 Phys. Rev. E 68 046133
[5] Yang P C, Bian J C, Wang G L, Zhou X J 2003 Chin. Sci. Bull. 48 1470 (in Chinese) [杨培才, 卞建春, 王革丽, 周秀骥 2003 科学通报 48 1470]
[6] Dai X G, Fu C B, Wang P 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 850
[7] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[8] Shukla J 1998 Science 282 5389
[9] Feng G L, Cao H X 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorology 9 219 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴 1998 应用气象学报 9 219]
[10] Pedron I T 2010 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 246 012034
[11] Feng T, Fu Z T, Deng X, Mao J Y 2009 Phys. Lett. A 373 4134
[12] Gao L H, Fu Z T 2013 Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett. 6 74
[13] Jiang T H, Deng L T 2004 J. Trop. Meteorol. 20 673 (in Chinese) [江田汉, 邓莲堂 2004 热带气象学报 20 673]
[14] Yuan N M, Fu Z T, Mao J Y 2010 Physica A 389 4087
[15] Wang Q G, Hou W, Zheng Z H, Gao R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6640 (in Chinese) [王启光, 侯威, 郑志海, 高荣 2009 58 6640]
[16] Lin G X, Chen X, Fu Z T 2007 Physica A 383 585
[17] Mo S H, L J Q, Shen B, Li W J 2010 J. Xi'an Univ. Technol. 26 148 (in Chinese) [莫淑红, 吕继强, 沈冰, 李文娟 2010 西安理工大学学报 26 148]
[18] Zhao J, L J Q, Ning Y F, Shen B 2011 J. Water Resources Water Eng. 22 74 (in Chinese) [赵静, 吕继强, 宁有丰, 沈冰 2011 水资源与水工程学报 22 74]
[19] Zhen Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球 50 420]
[20] Zhao Z C, Luo Y, Huang J B 2013 Adv. Climate Change Res. 9 1 (in Chinese) [赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 1]
[21] Fraedrich K, Blender R 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 90 108501
[22] He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]
[23] Govindan R B, Vyushin D, Bunde A, Brenner S, Havlin S, Schellnhuber H J 2002 Phys. Rev. Lett. 89 028501
[24] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[25] Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109202 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 60 109202]
[26] Blender R, Fraedrich K 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 1769 CLM7-1
[27] Zhao S S, He W P 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 209201 (in Chinese) [赵珊珊, 何文平 2014 63 209201]
[28] Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, Wang Z Z, Zhang H, Xin X G, Zhang Y W, Zhang L, Li J L, Wu F H, Liu Y M, Zhang F, Shi X L, Chu M, Zhang J, Fang Y J, Wang F, Lu Y X, Liu X W, Wei M, Liu Q X, Zhou W Y, Dong M, Zhao Q G, Ji J J, Laurent L, Zhou M Y 2014 Acta Meteo. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平, 王在志, 张华, 辛晓歌, 张艳武, 张莉, 李江龙, 吴方华, 刘一鸣, 张芳, 史学丽, 储敏, 张洁, 房永杰, 汪方, 路屹雄, 刘向文, 魏敏, 刘茜霞, 周文艳, 董敏, 赵其庚, 季劲钧, Laurent L, 周明煜 2014 气象学报 72 12]
[29] Zhang L, Wu T W, Xin X G, Zhang J, Fang Y J, Wang Z Z, Wei M 2013 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 37 994 (in Chinese) [张莉, 吴统文, 辛晓歌, 张洁, 房永杰, 王在志, 魏敏 2013 大气科学 37 994]
[30] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[31] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[32] Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[33] Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[34] Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[35] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[36] Kiraly A, Janosi I M 2005 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 88 119
-
[1] Bunde E K, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich Y 1996 Physica A 231 393
[2] Bunde E K, Bunde A, Havlin S, Roman H E, Goldreich Y, Schellnhuber H J 1998 Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 729
[3] Talkner P, Weber R O 2000 Phys. Rev. E 62 150
[4] Eichner J F, Bunde E K, Bunde A, Havlin S 2003 Phys. Rev. E 68 046133
[5] Yang P C, Bian J C, Wang G L, Zhou X J 2003 Chin. Sci. Bull. 48 1470 (in Chinese) [杨培才, 卞建春, 王革丽, 周秀骥 2003 科学通报 48 1470]
[6] Dai X G, Fu C B, Wang P 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 850
[7] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[8] Shukla J 1998 Science 282 5389
[9] Feng G L, Cao H X 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorology 9 219 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴 1998 应用气象学报 9 219]
[10] Pedron I T 2010 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 246 012034
[11] Feng T, Fu Z T, Deng X, Mao J Y 2009 Phys. Lett. A 373 4134
[12] Gao L H, Fu Z T 2013 Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett. 6 74
[13] Jiang T H, Deng L T 2004 J. Trop. Meteorol. 20 673 (in Chinese) [江田汉, 邓莲堂 2004 热带气象学报 20 673]
[14] Yuan N M, Fu Z T, Mao J Y 2010 Physica A 389 4087
[15] Wang Q G, Hou W, Zheng Z H, Gao R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6640 (in Chinese) [王启光, 侯威, 郑志海, 高荣 2009 58 6640]
[16] Lin G X, Chen X, Fu Z T 2007 Physica A 383 585
[17] Mo S H, L J Q, Shen B, Li W J 2010 J. Xi'an Univ. Technol. 26 148 (in Chinese) [莫淑红, 吕继强, 沈冰, 李文娟 2010 西安理工大学学报 26 148]
[18] Zhao J, L J Q, Ning Y F, Shen B 2011 J. Water Resources Water Eng. 22 74 (in Chinese) [赵静, 吕继强, 宁有丰, 沈冰 2011 水资源与水工程学报 22 74]
[19] Zhen Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球 50 420]
[20] Zhao Z C, Luo Y, Huang J B 2013 Adv. Climate Change Res. 9 1 (in Chinese) [赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 1]
[21] Fraedrich K, Blender R 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 90 108501
[22] He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]
[23] Govindan R B, Vyushin D, Bunde A, Brenner S, Havlin S, Schellnhuber H J 2002 Phys. Rev. Lett. 89 028501
[24] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[25] Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109202 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 60 109202]
[26] Blender R, Fraedrich K 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 1769 CLM7-1
[27] Zhao S S, He W P 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 209201 (in Chinese) [赵珊珊, 何文平 2014 63 209201]
[28] Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, Wang Z Z, Zhang H, Xin X G, Zhang Y W, Zhang L, Li J L, Wu F H, Liu Y M, Zhang F, Shi X L, Chu M, Zhang J, Fang Y J, Wang F, Lu Y X, Liu X W, Wei M, Liu Q X, Zhou W Y, Dong M, Zhao Q G, Ji J J, Laurent L, Zhou M Y 2014 Acta Meteo. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平, 王在志, 张华, 辛晓歌, 张艳武, 张莉, 李江龙, 吴方华, 刘一鸣, 张芳, 史学丽, 储敏, 张洁, 房永杰, 汪方, 路屹雄, 刘向文, 魏敏, 刘茜霞, 周文艳, 董敏, 赵其庚, 季劲钧, Laurent L, 周明煜 2014 气象学报 72 12]
[29] Zhang L, Wu T W, Xin X G, Zhang J, Fang Y J, Wang Z Z, Wei M 2013 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 37 994 (in Chinese) [张莉, 吴统文, 辛晓歌, 张洁, 房永杰, 王在志, 魏敏 2013 大气科学 37 994]
[30] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[31] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[32] Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[33] Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[34] Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[35] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[36] Kiraly A, Janosi I M 2005 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 88 119
计量
- 文章访问数: 6437
- PDF下载量: 284
- 被引次数: 0
下载:
