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The traditional evaluation of simulation perfomance for numerical model is based on the differences in average, trend, probability density distribution, extreme value, variance and self-correlation between observational data and the simulated data by numerical model. These evaluation methods mainly depend on the comparison of statistical difference between the simulation and observation, but ignore the comparison in the dynamical characteristics of climate system. In view of this, in the present paper we use detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to analyze the scaling characteristics of daily temperature from observational data and the corresponding simulated data by climate model, and investigate whether the long-range correlation of meteorological elements can exist in the simulated data of climate model. If so, we can assess the performance of climate model based on the comparison of scaling index between the observational data and the simulated data. As an example, the performances of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1(m)) model, including simulated daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature, are assessed by using DFA. The results indicate that the long-range correlation characteristics of temperature in China can be simulated by BCC_CSM1.1(m). But the simulation errors are relatively large in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, most West China, North China, and Huanghuai district. Thereinto, and the performance of BCC_CSM1.1(m) in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western West China is worst in China.
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Keywords:
- detrended fluctuation analysis /
- scaling exponent /
- long-range correlation /
- model performance evaluation
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[2] Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 250 (in Chinese) [姚遥, 罗勇, 黄健斌 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 250]
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[4] Zhou X, Li Q Q, Sun X B, Wei M 2014 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 25 95 (in Chinese) [周鑫, 李清泉, 孙秀博, 魏敏 2014 应用气象学报 25 95]
[5] Guo Y, Dong W J, Ren F M, Zhao Z C, Huang J B 2013 Advances in Climate Change Research 9 181 (in Chinese) [郭彦, 董文杰, 任福民, 赵宗慈, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 181]
[6] Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, et al. 2014 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平 等 2014 气象学报 72 12]
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[8] Zheng Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球 50 420]
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[11] Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich 1996 Physica A 231 393
[12] Cao H X 1993 Sci. China 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 23 104]
[13] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[14] Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[15] Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[16] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[17] Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 60 109203]
[18] Zhou Y, Leung Y, Yu Z G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 090507
[19] Zhu S S, Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[20] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[21] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[22] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[23] Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[24] Xin X G, Wu T W, Zhang J 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 378 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 吴统文, 张洁 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 378]
[25] Ji J J, Huang M, Li K R 2008 Sci. China D: Earth Sci. 51 885
[26] He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]
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[1] Shi Y J, Ren Y L, Wang S G, Shang K Z, Li X, Zhou G L 2012 Plateau Meteorol. 31 1257 (in Chinese ) [石彦君, 任余龙, 王式功, 尚可政, 李旭, 周甘霖 2012 高原气象 31 1257]
[2] Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 250 (in Chinese) [姚遥, 罗勇, 黄健斌 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 250]
[3] Gao F, Xin X G, Wu T W 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 1165 (in Chinese) [高峰, 辛晓歌, 吴统文 2012 大气科学 36 1165]
[4] Zhou X, Li Q Q, Sun X B, Wei M 2014 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 25 95 (in Chinese) [周鑫, 李清泉, 孙秀博, 魏敏 2014 应用气象学报 25 95]
[5] Guo Y, Dong W J, Ren F M, Zhao Z C, Huang J B 2013 Advances in Climate Change Research 9 181 (in Chinese) [郭彦, 董文杰, 任福民, 赵宗慈, 黄健斌 2013 气候变化研究进展 9 181]
[6] Wu T W, Song L C, Li W P, et al. 2014 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 72 12 (in Chinese) [吴统文, 宋连春, 李伟平 等 2014 气象学报 72 12]
[7] Bartos I, Jánosi I M 2006 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 13 571
[8] Zheng Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球 50 420]
[9] Liu S D, Rong P P, Chen J 2000 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 58 111 (in Chinese) [刘式达, 荣平平, 陈炯 2000 气象学报 58 111]
[10] Cheng J, She Z S, Liang S, Liu S D 2003 J. Nanjing Instit. Meteorol. 26 24 (in Chinese) [陈炯, 佘振苏, 梁爽, 刘式达 2003 南京气象学院学报 26 24]
[11] Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Goldreich 1996 Physica A 231 393
[12] Cao H X 1993 Sci. China 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 23 104]
[13] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[14] Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[15] Peng C K, Havlin S, Goldberger A L 1995 Chaos 5 82
[16] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[17] Hou W, Zhang D Q, Zhou Y, Yang P 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 周云, 杨萍 2011 60 109203]
[18] Zhou Y, Leung Y, Yu Z G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 090507
[19] Zhu S S, Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[20] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[21] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
[22] Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N, Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Clim. Dyn. 34 123
[23] Wu T W 2012 Clim. Dyn. 38 725
[24] Xin X G, Wu T W, Zhang J 2012 Advances in Climate Change Research 8 378 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 吴统文, 张洁 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 378]
[25] Ji J J, Huang M, Li K R 2008 Sci. China D: Earth Sci. 51 885
[26] He W P 2008 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [何文平 2008 博士学位论文 (兰州: 兰州大学)]
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