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针对相似动力预报中模式预报误差的估计问题,提出将模式误差的直接相似订正问题转化成模式误差主分量的相似预报问题.客观上将模式误差主分量分成可预报和不可预报两部分, 对于可预报主分量采用最优多因子动态配置方案进行相似预报, 而对于不可预报部分则用系统平均代替.基于国家气候中心季节预报业务模式、 美国气候预报中心组合降雨分析资料及国家气候中心气候系统诊断预报室74项环流指数和美国国家海洋和大气管理局的40个气候指数,对东北区域汛期降水进行了预报试验. 20052010年6年独立样本检验预报平均距平相关系数为0.29,较系统误差订正预报的0.04有较大提高, 证实该方案能提高国家气候中心季节预报业务模式汛期降水预报水平.To correct the model errors in analogue-dynamical prediction, a new idea of using the analogue prediction of principal components of model errors, instead of analogue prediction of model error directly, is proposed. By decomposing the empirical orthogonal function, the principal components of the model errors are divided into two parts subjectively: predictable and unpredictable. For the predictable part, it is analogically predicted by the scheme of dynamical and optimal configuration of multiple predictors; while for the unpredictable part, it is estimated by average of the system. Based on the National Climate Center (NCC) of China operational seasonal prediction model results for the period 1983-2010 and the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center merged analysis of precipitation in the same period, together with the 74 circulation indices of NCC Climate System Diagnostic Division and 40 climate indices of NOAA of US during 1951-2010, the method is implemented in objective and quantitative prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China. The independent sample validation shows that this technique has effectively improved the monsoon precipitation prediction skill during 2005-2010, for which the averaged anomaly correlation coefficients and the system correct of errors are 0.29 and 0.04 respectively. This study demonstrates that the analogue-dynamical approach can enhance the prediction level of NCC operational seasonal forecast model obviously.
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Keywords:
- analogue-dynamical prediction /
- principal component /
- correction of errors /
- monsoon precipitation
[1] Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteor. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176]
[2] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorology 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[3] Qiu C J, Chou J F 1989 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[4] Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. China Ser. B 21 216 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 王绍武 1991 中国科学B辑 21 216]
[5] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[6] Cao H X 1993 Sci. China Ser. B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学B辑 23 104]
[7] Gu X Q 1998 Chinese Sci. Bull. 43 1 (in Chinese) [谷湘潜 1998 科学通报 43 1]
[8] Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y 2001 Acta Meteor. Sin. 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏风英 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[9] Feng G L, Cao H X, Gao X Q 2001 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 18 701
[10] Bao M, Ni Y Q, Chou J F 2004 Chinese Sci. Bull. 49 1112 (in Chinese) [鲍名, 倪允琪, 丑纪范 2004 科学通报 49 1112]
[11] Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteor. Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[12] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China Ser. D 37 1101 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学D辑(地球科学) 37 1101]
[13] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[14] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P 2011 Acta Meteor. Sin. 25 316
[15] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉 2011 60 029204]
[16] Paegle J N, Haslam R B 1982 J. Appl. Meteor. 21 127
[17] Wei F Y, Cao H X 1990 Meteorological Monthly 16 20 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 曹鸿兴 1990 气象 16 20]
[18] Zhang B L, Chou J F, Sun Z B 1991 Chinese Sci. Bull. 23 1797 (in Chinese) [张邦林, 丑纪范, 孙照渤 1991 科学通报 23 1797]
[19] Yu Z P, Chu P S, Schroeder T 1997 J. Climate 12 2586
[20] Huang J Y, Huang M Y 2000 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 11 (suppl.) 72 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑, 黄茂怡 2000 应用气象学报 11(增刊) 72]
[21] Li F, Lin Z D, Zuo R T 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 658 (in Chinese) [李芳, 林中达, 左瑞亭 2005 气候与环境研究 10 658]
[22] Huang G, Zhou W 2006 Climatic and Environmental Research 11 296 (in Chinese) [黄刚, 周文 2006 气候与环境研究 11 296]
[23] Chen C M, Zhou W, Lin A L 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 25 196 (in Chinese) [陈创买, 周文, 林爱兰 2009 热带气象学报 25 196]
[24] Qin Z K, Lin Z H, Chen H 2011 Acta Meteor. Sin. 69 289 (in Chinese) [秦正坤, 林朝晖, 陈红 2011 气象学报 69 289]
[25] Vautard R, Plaut G, Wang R S 1999 J. Climate 12 380
[26] Dreveton C, Yan G L 2004 J. Appl. Meteor. 43 984
[27] Zhao H C 1984 Scientia Geographica Sinica 4 225 (in Chinese) [赵焕宸 1984 地理科学 4 225]
[28] Ding Y H, Liu Y M, Song Y J 2002 Climatic and Environmental Research 7 236 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 刘一鸣, 宋永加 2002 气候与环境研究 7 236]
[29] Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q 2005 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 16 (suppl.) 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 张培群, 李清泉 2005 应用气象学报 16(增刊) 1]
[30] Shi N 2009 Meteorological Statistical Forecast (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp128-142 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京:气象出版社) 第128—142页]
[31] Wei F Y 2007 Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp105-110 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(北京:气象出版社) 第105—110页]
[32] Chen J Y 2010 Analysis on Flood-Drought Mechanism in China and Study on Long-Range Forecast Techniques (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p154 (in Chinese) [陈菊英 2010 中国旱涝的机理分析和长期预报技术研究 (北京:气象出版社) 第154页]
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[1] Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteor. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176]
[2] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorology 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[3] Qiu C J, Chou J F 1989 Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[4] Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. China Ser. B 21 216 (in Chinese) [黄建平, 王绍武 1991 中国科学B辑 21 216]
[5] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[6] Cao H X 1993 Sci. China Ser. B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学B辑 23 104]
[7] Gu X Q 1998 Chinese Sci. Bull. 43 1 (in Chinese) [谷湘潜 1998 科学通报 43 1]
[8] Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y 2001 Acta Meteor. Sin. 59 206 (in Chinese) [封国林, 曹鸿兴, 魏风英 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[9] Feng G L, Cao H X, Gao X Q 2001 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 18 701
[10] Bao M, Ni Y Q, Chou J F 2004 Chinese Sci. Bull. 49 1112 (in Chinese) [鲍名, 倪允琪, 丑纪范 2004 科学通报 49 1112]
[11] Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteor. Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[12] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China Ser. D 37 1101 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学D辑(地球科学) 37 1101]
[13] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[14] Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P 2011 Acta Meteor. Sin. 25 316
[15] Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉 2011 60 029204]
[16] Paegle J N, Haslam R B 1982 J. Appl. Meteor. 21 127
[17] Wei F Y, Cao H X 1990 Meteorological Monthly 16 20 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 曹鸿兴 1990 气象 16 20]
[18] Zhang B L, Chou J F, Sun Z B 1991 Chinese Sci. Bull. 23 1797 (in Chinese) [张邦林, 丑纪范, 孙照渤 1991 科学通报 23 1797]
[19] Yu Z P, Chu P S, Schroeder T 1997 J. Climate 12 2586
[20] Huang J Y, Huang M Y 2000 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 11 (suppl.) 72 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑, 黄茂怡 2000 应用气象学报 11(增刊) 72]
[21] Li F, Lin Z D, Zuo R T 2005 Climatic and Environmental Research 10 658 (in Chinese) [李芳, 林中达, 左瑞亭 2005 气候与环境研究 10 658]
[22] Huang G, Zhou W 2006 Climatic and Environmental Research 11 296 (in Chinese) [黄刚, 周文 2006 气候与环境研究 11 296]
[23] Chen C M, Zhou W, Lin A L 2009 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 25 196 (in Chinese) [陈创买, 周文, 林爱兰 2009 热带气象学报 25 196]
[24] Qin Z K, Lin Z H, Chen H 2011 Acta Meteor. Sin. 69 289 (in Chinese) [秦正坤, 林朝晖, 陈红 2011 气象学报 69 289]
[25] Vautard R, Plaut G, Wang R S 1999 J. Climate 12 380
[26] Dreveton C, Yan G L 2004 J. Appl. Meteor. 43 984
[27] Zhao H C 1984 Scientia Geographica Sinica 4 225 (in Chinese) [赵焕宸 1984 地理科学 4 225]
[28] Ding Y H, Liu Y M, Song Y J 2002 Climatic and Environmental Research 7 236 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 刘一鸣, 宋永加 2002 气候与环境研究 7 236]
[29] Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q 2005 J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 16 (suppl.) 1 (in Chinese) [李维京, 张培群, 李清泉 2005 应用气象学报 16(增刊) 1]
[30] Shi N 2009 Meteorological Statistical Forecast (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp128-142 (in Chinese) [施能 2009 气象统计预报 (北京:气象出版社) 第128—142页]
[31] Wei F Y 2007 Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp105-110 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(北京:气象出版社) 第105—110页]
[32] Chen J Y 2010 Analysis on Flood-Drought Mechanism in China and Study on Long-Range Forecast Techniques (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p154 (in Chinese) [陈菊英 2010 中国旱涝的机理分析和长期预报技术研究 (北京:气象出版社) 第154页]
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