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利用国家气候中心季节预报1983—2009年27年模式预报结果,结合74项环流指数及美国国家海洋局和大气管理局提供的40个气候指数和美国气候预报中心实际降水分析资料,采用资料诊断分析和数值模拟实验相结合的方法,通过多因子的历史相似信息提取预报相似年,获得预报场的误差订正项.在这一订正思路的基础上,考虑前期关键影响因子的选取、多因子组合的优化配置,构建适用于不同预报年的区域动力-统计模式预报误差订正方案.以华北为例,探索多因子最优组合的多元客观相似判据,发展基于多因子动力-统计模式预报误差的动态订正新技术,改善华北夏季降水预报效果,提高预报技巧.通过2005—2009年独立样本回报结果表明,动态最优多因子组合相似订正方法距平相关系数评分相对于系统订正方法有着显著的提高,该订正方案对华北地区的夏季降水预测有着很好的业务前景,具有重要的应用价值,即将投入业务运行.Based on the idea of using the historical-analogue information to revise the prediction errors of National Climate Centre numerical business model, for North China, based on analysis data of the CMAP from 1983 to 2009, 40 pieces of climate indices from NOAA, 27 years of the season prediction model results from 1983 to 2009 and 74 pieces of circulation characteristics materials provided by Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Room of National Climate Center, using the method of combining data analysis and numerical simulation of diagnostic tests, taking the advantage of the prediction error of the key information of similar model from the historical data, by identifying key factors, optimizing allocation of the different factors of different forecasting years, we established specific multi-factor dynamic optimal portfolios to revise prediction errors in different periods of the power-statistical model in North China, and constructed early environmental factors similar to field multiple objective criteria, to develop new technology of revising prediction errors from the power-statistical model based on dynamic optimal combination of multi-factor, and improved the prediction effect in the summer precipitation in North China and the forecasting skills. Results of independent sample return of 2005—2009 shows that, the score of similarity revised method has improved significantly compared with the score of systematic revised method. The method has a good prospect for summer precipitation forecast in North China, and is going to be put into operation.
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Keywords:
- set of key factors /
- estimation of model errors /
- precipitation /
- prediction PACS: 92.60.Wc
[1] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[2] Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[3] Zhao S R, Song Z S 1999 Plateau Meteorol.18 535(in Chinese)[赵声蓉、宋正山 1999 高原气象 18 535]
[4] Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3932 (in Chinese)[侯 威、杨 萍、封国林 2008 57 3932]
[5] Barnett T P 1990 Nature 343 743
[6] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181 (in Chinese) [封国林、董文杰、贾晓静、曹鸿兴 2002 51 1181]
[7] Hou W, Yang P, Zheng Z H, Gong Z Q 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2106(in Chinese) [侯 威、杨 萍、郑志海、龚志强 2009 58 2106]
[8] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强、封国林、万仕全、李建平 2006 55 477]
[9] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全、张 璐、杨 杰、封国林 2010 59 655]
[10] Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese)[杨 杰、侯 威、封国林 2010 59 664]
[11] Zhi R, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 1837(in Chinese) [支 蓉、廉 毅、封国林2007 56 1837]
[12] Xie K, Ren X J 2008 Sci. Meteorol. Sin. 28 508(in Chinese)[谢 坤、任雪娟 2008 气象科学 28 508]
[13] Zhang L J, Xia J, Hu Z F 2008 Adv. Clim. Chang. Res. 4 140 (in Chinese)[张利平、夏 军、胡志芳 2008 气候变化研究 4 140]
[14] Lu R Y 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 50 1131(in Chinese)[陆日宇 2005科学通报 50 1131]
[15] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强、封国林 2008 57 3920]
[16] Fan K, Lin M J, Gao Y Z 2008 Sci. Chin. 38 1452(in Chinese)[范 可、林美静、高煜中 2008 中国科学38 1452]
[17] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[18] Chou J F 2003 Bimonth. Xinjiang Meteorol. 26 1(in Chinese) [丑纪范 2003 新疆气象 26 1]
[19] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367(in Chinese)[丑纪范1986 高原气象5 367]
[20] Thomas A G 1970 J. Appl. Meteorol. 8 333
[21] Michael K T, Lisa G, Anthony G B 2005 Notes Corresp. 18 1831
[22] Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报29 176]
[23] Chou J F 1974 Sci. Chin. Ser. A 6 635(in Chinese)[丑纪范1974 中国科学A辑 6 635]
[24] Qiu C J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22(in Chinese)[邱崇践、丑纪范1989 大气科学13 22]
[25] Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. Chin. Ser. B 2 216 (in Chinese)[黄建平、 王绍武 1991中国科学B辑 2 216]
[26] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[27] Ren H L, Zhang P Q, Li W J, Chou J F 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 4388(in Chinese)[任宏利、张培群、李维京、丑纪范 2006 55 4388]
[28] Chen H, Lin ZH 2006 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 23 425
[29] Gu X Q 1998 Chin. Sci. Bull. 43 1(in Chinese) [谷湘潜1998 科学通报43 1]
[30] Cao H X 1993 Sci. Chin. Ser. B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴1993 中国科学B辑23 104]
[31] Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 59 206 (in Chinese)[封国林、曹鸿兴、魏凤英、丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[32] Ding Y H, Liu Y M, Song Y J, Li Q Q 2002 Clim. Envir. 7 236 (in Chinese) [丁一汇、 刘一鸣、 宋永加、 李清泉 2002 气候与环境研究 7 236]
[33] Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q, Wang L N, Liu Y M, Shi X L, Zhang Z Q, Liu Y M, Hu G Q, Dang H Y, Zhang F, Chen L J, Sun C R, Zhao Q G, Dong M 2005 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 16 1 (in Chinese) [李维京、 张培群、 李清泉、王兰宁、刘益民、史学丽、张祖强、刘一鸣、胡国权、党鸿雁、张 芳、陈丽娟、孙除荣、赵其庆、董 敏 2005 应用气象学报16 1]
[34] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. Chin. Ser. D 37 988(in Chinese) [任宏利、 丑纪范2007 中国科学D辑37 988]
[35] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Adv. Earth Sci. 22 376(in Chinese)[任宏利、 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[36] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[37] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)[郑志海、任宏利、黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[38] Bao M, Ni Y Q, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Sci. Bull. 49 1112 (in Chinese)[鲍 名、 倪允琪、 丑纪范 2004 科学通报 49 1112]
[39] Shi Y S, Yao X X, Yang X L, Li Z T 2008 Sci. Meteorol. Sin. 28 377 (in Chinese)[史印山、姚学祥、杨晓亮、李宗涛 2008 气象科学 28 377]
[40] Mao Y J 2005 Bull. Sci. Tech. 5 533 (in Chinese)[毛燕军 2005 科技通报 5 533]
[41] Yao Y, Yan H S 2008 J. Trop. Meteorol. 24 483 (in Chinese)[姚 愚、严华生2008 热带气象学报24 483]
[42] Zhang H D, Jin R H, Zhang Y S 2008 J. Trop. Meteorol. 24 417(in Chinese)[张恒德、金荣花、张友姝 2008 热带气象学报 24 417]
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[1] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[2] Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[3] Zhao S R, Song Z S 1999 Plateau Meteorol.18 535(in Chinese)[赵声蓉、宋正山 1999 高原气象 18 535]
[4] Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3932 (in Chinese)[侯 威、杨 萍、封国林 2008 57 3932]
[5] Barnett T P 1990 Nature 343 743
[6] Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181 (in Chinese) [封国林、董文杰、贾晓静、曹鸿兴 2002 51 1181]
[7] Hou W, Yang P, Zheng Z H, Gong Z Q 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2106(in Chinese) [侯 威、杨 萍、郑志海、龚志强 2009 58 2106]
[8] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强、封国林、万仕全、李建平 2006 55 477]
[9] Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全、张 璐、杨 杰、封国林 2010 59 655]
[10] Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese)[杨 杰、侯 威、封国林 2010 59 664]
[11] Zhi R, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 1837(in Chinese) [支 蓉、廉 毅、封国林2007 56 1837]
[12] Xie K, Ren X J 2008 Sci. Meteorol. Sin. 28 508(in Chinese)[谢 坤、任雪娟 2008 气象科学 28 508]
[13] Zhang L J, Xia J, Hu Z F 2008 Adv. Clim. Chang. Res. 4 140 (in Chinese)[张利平、夏 军、胡志芳 2008 气候变化研究 4 140]
[14] Lu R Y 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 50 1131(in Chinese)[陆日宇 2005科学通报 50 1131]
[15] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强、封国林 2008 57 3920]
[16] Fan K, Lin M J, Gao Y Z 2008 Sci. Chin. 38 1452(in Chinese)[范 可、林美静、高煜中 2008 中国科学38 1452]
[17] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[18] Chou J F 2003 Bimonth. Xinjiang Meteorol. 26 1(in Chinese) [丑纪范 2003 新疆气象 26 1]
[19] Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367(in Chinese)[丑纪范1986 高原气象5 367]
[20] Thomas A G 1970 J. Appl. Meteorol. 8 333
[21] Michael K T, Lisa G, Anthony G B 2005 Notes Corresp. 18 1831
[22] Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报29 176]
[23] Chou J F 1974 Sci. Chin. Ser. A 6 635(in Chinese)[丑纪范1974 中国科学A辑 6 635]
[24] Qiu C J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22(in Chinese)[邱崇践、丑纪范1989 大气科学13 22]
[25] Huang J P, Wang S W 1991 Sci. Chin. Ser. B 2 216 (in Chinese)[黄建平、 王绍武 1991中国科学B辑 2 216]
[26] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[27] Ren H L, Zhang P Q, Li W J, Chou J F 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 4388(in Chinese)[任宏利、张培群、李维京、丑纪范 2006 55 4388]
[28] Chen H, Lin ZH 2006 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 23 425
[29] Gu X Q 1998 Chin. Sci. Bull. 43 1(in Chinese) [谷湘潜1998 科学通报43 1]
[30] Cao H X 1993 Sci. Chin. Ser. B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴1993 中国科学B辑23 104]
[31] Feng G L, Cao H X, Wei F Y, Chou J F 2001 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 59 206 (in Chinese)[封国林、曹鸿兴、魏凤英、丑纪范 2001 气象学报 59 206]
[32] Ding Y H, Liu Y M, Song Y J, Li Q Q 2002 Clim. Envir. 7 236 (in Chinese) [丁一汇、 刘一鸣、 宋永加、 李清泉 2002 气候与环境研究 7 236]
[33] Li W J, Zhang P Q, Li Q Q, Wang L N, Liu Y M, Shi X L, Zhang Z Q, Liu Y M, Hu G Q, Dang H Y, Zhang F, Chen L J, Sun C R, Zhao Q G, Dong M 2005 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 16 1 (in Chinese) [李维京、 张培群、 李清泉、王兰宁、刘益民、史学丽、张祖强、刘一鸣、胡国权、党鸿雁、张 芳、陈丽娟、孙除荣、赵其庆、董 敏 2005 应用气象学报16 1]
[34] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. Chin. Ser. D 37 988(in Chinese) [任宏利、 丑纪范2007 中国科学D辑37 988]
[35] Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Adv. Earth Sci. 22 376(in Chinese)[任宏利、 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[36] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[37] Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)[郑志海、任宏利、黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[38] Bao M, Ni Y Q, Chou J F 2004 Chin. Sci. Bull. 49 1112 (in Chinese)[鲍 名、 倪允琪、 丑纪范 2004 科学通报 49 1112]
[39] Shi Y S, Yao X X, Yang X L, Li Z T 2008 Sci. Meteorol. Sin. 28 377 (in Chinese)[史印山、姚学祥、杨晓亮、李宗涛 2008 气象科学 28 377]
[40] Mao Y J 2005 Bull. Sci. Tech. 5 533 (in Chinese)[毛燕军 2005 科技通报 5 533]
[41] Yao Y, Yan H S 2008 J. Trop. Meteorol. 24 483 (in Chinese)[姚 愚、严华生2008 热带气象学报24 483]
[42] Zhang H D, Jin R H, Zhang Y S 2008 J. Trop. Meteorol. 24 417(in Chinese)[张恒德、金荣花、张友姝 2008 热带气象学报 24 417]
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