火灾逃生过程的模拟与讨论以吉林禽业火灾为例

侯磊; 刘建国; 潘雪; 郭强; 汪秉宏

doi:10.7498/aps.63.178902

摘要

2013年6月3日，吉林禽业公司发生大火，300多名员工中120人遇难，是我国2000年以来死亡人数最多的一次火灾. 此次火灾造成巨大伤亡的一个重要原因是厂房的6个出口只有3个可用，并且员工不知道每个出口的可用性信息. 本文运用经典的地面场模型对吉林禽业火灾逃生过程进行模拟，研究了厂房各出口的重要性差异以及出口的可用性对逃生效果的影响. 结果表明，如果多开一个出口，最多可挽救54.3%的遇难者，如果6个出口全部可用，76.6% 的遇难者能够逃离. 另外，在出口可用性信息完全掌握的情况下，遇难人数也会减少21.6%. 由此可见，保证人群集聚现场出口的可用性以及信息的及时流通对于保护人民的生命财产安全至关重要.

关键词:

Abstract

In the fire of the factory of Jilin poultry company occurred on 3 June, 2013, which was the biggest fire disaster in the recent 13 years, 120 people were burned. One of the most important reasons lies in the shut off of 3 out of 6 exits, and further, the staff did not know which exit can be used to evacuate. In this paper, we simulate the evacuation process of the fire of Jilin using the foor field model, and show the importance of each exit and the influence of the shut off of exits. Results show that, if only there had been one more exit opened when the fire occurred, about 54.3% of the burned pedestrians could survive, and if all the exits ware opened, 76.6% of the burned pedestrians would survive. In addition, if the pedestrians had got the information of the availability of each exit, the number of burned pedestrians would reduce 21.6%. Hence, it is crucial to maintain the availability of the exits and spread the availability information for preventing loss of life and property.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
上海理工大学复杂系统科学研究中心, 上海 200093

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（批准号：91024026，71171136，71374177，61371125），和上海市一流学科建设项目（XKTX2012）资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Research Center of Complex Systems Science, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China

Funds: Project partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91024026, 71171136, 71374177, 61371125), and the Shanghai top discipline construction project (Grant No. XKTX2012).

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施引文献

[1]	Castellano C, Fortunato S, Loreto V 2009 Rev. Mod. Phys. 81 591
[2]
[3]	Zheng Y, Jia B. Li X G, Zhu N 2012 Physica A 390 3147
[4]	Hou L, Liu J G, Pan X, Wang B H 2014 Physica A 400 93
[5]
[6]
[7]	Ren Z M, Liu J G, Shao F, Hu Z L, Guo Q 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 108902 (in Chinese)[任卓明, 刘建国, 邵凤, 胡兆龙, 郭强 2013 62 108902]
[8]
[9]	Ren Z M, Shao F, Liu J G, Guo Q and Wang B H 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 128901 (in Chinese)[任卓明, 邵凤, 刘建国, 郭强, 汪秉宏 2013 62 128901]
[10]
[11]	Ren Z M, Zeng A, Chen D B, Liao H, Liu J G 2014 EPL (Europhysics Letters) (to be appear)
[12]	Liu J G, Ren Z M, Guo Q, Wang B H 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 178901 (in Chinese)[刘建国, 任卓明, 郭强, 汪秉宏 2013 62 178901]
[13]
[14]
[15]	Helbing D, Farkas I 2000 Nature 407 478
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[17]	Helbing D, Molnr P 1995 Phys. Rev. E 51 4282
[18]	Song W G, Yu Y F, Wang B H, Fan W C 2006 Physica A 371 658
[19]
[20]
[21]	Zhou J W, Kuang H, Liu M R, Kong L J 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 3001 (in Chinese)[周金旺, 邝华, 刘慕仁, 孔令江 2009 58 3001]
[22]
[23]	Yang L Z, Fang W F, Huang R, Deng Z H 2002 Chin. Sci. Bull. 47 896 (in Chinese)[杨立中, 方伟峰, 黄锐, 邓志华 2002 科学通报 47 896]
[24]
[25]	Kirchner A, Nishinari K, Schadschneider A 2003 Phys. Rev. E67 056122
[26]	Chen J, Pang M B, Yang M 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 094502 (in Chinese)[陈静, 庞明宝, 杨敏 2014 63 094502]
[27]
[28]
[29]	Yue H, Shao C F, Yao Z S 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4523 (in Chinese)[岳昊, 邵春福, 姚智胜 2009 58 4523]
[30]	Song W G, Xua X, Wanga B H, Ni S J 2006 Physica A 363 492
[31]
[32]	Guo R Y, Huang H J 2008 Physica A 387 580
[33]
[34]
[35]	Isobe M, Helbing D, Nagatani T 2004 Phys. Rev. E 69 066132
[36]	Hao Q Y, Jiang R, Hu M B, B Jia, Wu Q S 2011 Phys. Rev. E 84 036107
[37]
[38]	Li X, Duan X Y, Dong L Y 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 108901
[39]
[40]
[41]	Zhu N, Jia B, Shao C F, Y H 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 05051
[42]	Guo R Y, Huang H J 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 03051
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[44]
[45]	Ma J, Song W G, Liao G X 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 128901
[46]	Peng Y C, Chou C I 2011 Computer Physics Communications 182 205
[47]
[48]
[49]	Zheng X P, Li W, Guan C 2010 Physica A 389 2177
[50]
[51]	Yang X F, Mao W, Fu Q 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 240511 (in Chinese)[杨晓芳, 茅威, 付强 2013 62 240511]
[52]
[53]	Kirchner A, Schadschneider A 2002 Physica A 312 260
[54]	Nishinari K, Kirchener A, Namazi A, Schadschneider A 2004 IEICE Transaction on Information and Systems E87-D 726
[55]
[56]
[57]	Yamamoto K, Kokubo S, Nishinari K 2007 Physica A 379 654
[58]
[59]	Hoogendoorn S P 2003 Computational Physics of Transport and Interface dynamics, Springer 32 275
[60]	Burstedde C, Klauck K, Schadschneider A, Zittartz J 2001 Physica A 295 507
[61]
[62]	Hou L, Liu J G, Pan X, Song W J, Li X D 2014 Int. J. Mod. Phys. C 25 1450002
[63]
[64]	Hu Z L, Liu J G, Ren Z M 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 218901 (in Chinese)[胡兆龙, 刘建国, 任卓明 2013 62 218901]
[65]

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