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黄土高原地区作为气候敏感区和生态脆弱区地表干 湿状况的年际和年代际变化特征十分明显. 但以往主要是针对夏季进行分析, 而对黄土高原秋季干湿变化规律及大气环流机理的认识非常有限. 本文基于中国589站最近50 a (1961–2010年)月降水和气温月平均资料、NCEP/NCAR提供的再分析资料以及NOAA提供的海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST) 资料, 运用带通/低通滤波、小波分析、EOF/REOF和回归分析等方法, 在对中国秋季干湿时空演化分类的基础上, 通过研究秋季黄土高原中部干湿演变周期、大气环流特征及与海温的多尺度相关关系, 以揭示影响黄土高原中部秋季干湿变化的物理机理, 并确定影响该区域干湿状况的前兆信号. 小波功率谱分析表明, 黄土高原中部秋季干湿指数存在准4 a和准8 a的周期, 1970–1990年准8 a尺度周期振荡尤为明显. 年际(周期≤ 8 a) 尺度上偏湿年的大气环流特征是, 欧亚大陆中高纬呈“双阻型”, 200 hPa西风急流显著北移, 日本海-鄂霍茨克海受反气旋控制, 其底部的偏东水汽输送带将水汽输入研究区. 年代际(周期 > 8 a)尺度上偏湿年的大气环流特征是, 东亚大陆为一致的低值系统; 200 hPa东亚副热带西风急流减弱北移, 研究区主要水汽来源由经孟加拉湾在中南半岛转向的南风水汽输送及中纬度的西风水汽输送组成. 整个序列上, Nino3区SST指数(Nino3I)超前5个月与秋季干湿指数已呈显著的负相关关系, 而孟加拉湾–中国南海SST指数(BayI)则超前3个月与干湿指数呈现显著的负相关关系. 年际尺度上, 秋季Nino3I, BayI均与秋季干湿指数存在显著相关(准4 a, 4–6 a), 而年代际尺度上, 只有BayI与秋季干湿指数存在显著相关性(准10 a). 黄土高原中部秋季干湿的年际和年代际周期的确定、大气环流异常特征的认识及与海温的多尺度相关关系的建立, 不仅揭示了影响该区域干湿变化的物理机理, 也为干旱气候预测提供了重要的前兆信号.The ecological environment is vulnerable and extremely sensitive to climate change in the loess plateau. The interannual and interdecadal variations of dry/wet index are particularly obvious in this region. Up to now, the analisis of the dry/wet variation in the loess plateau has been basically understood during summer, but the autumn dry/wet evolution of the loess plateau and the atmospheric circulation characteristic are still laking in its knowledge. Based on the monthly mean rainfall and temperature of 589 China weather stations, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1961 to 2010, using the EOF/REOF, bandpass filtering, wavelet technique and regression methods, the autumn dry/wet evolution of the loess plateau and the atmospheric circulation characteristic associated with them, and the multi-scale relationship between dry/wet index and SST were analyzed on the basis of classification of dry/wet over China region in autumn. The continuous wavelet transform shows that the autumn wet/dry index exists has ～4 a and 8 a period over the loess plateau, and the ～8 year oscillation from 1970–1990 is rather obvious. On the interannual scales, the atmospheric circulation anomalies of 500 hPa associated with the wet years exhibit a ’double-blocking’ in the mid-high latitude, and the westerly jet stream turns to be weakened and the jet axis moves to the north significantly. Japan-Okhotsk Sea is featured with anticyclone, and the east wind at the bottom of the anticyclone provides favorable moisture for the middle Loess plateau. On the interdecadal scales, the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the wet years show the negative geopotential height anomaly over East Asian, and the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream of 200 hPa is weakened and moves north too. The vapour of the middle Loess plateau comes from two paths, one is the westerly water vapor transport in the middle latitude, and the other is the southerly water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal and turns to the north at the Indo-China Peninsula. When the Nino3 index (Nino3I) is in advance of dry/wet index for 5 months, there is a significantly negative correlation between them. When the Bay of Benga and South China Sea SST index (BayI) goes shead of dry/wet index for 3 months, there is a significantly negative correlation between them. On the interannual scales, the cross wavelet transform indicates that both the Nino3I and BayI have significant connections with the dry/wet index (～4 a and 4–6 a cycles). On the interdecadal scales, only BayI has significant connections with dry/wet index (～10 a cycles). By establishing the interannual and interdecadal variations of dry/wet cycle of the loess plateau, recognizing the atmospheric circulation anomalies, and building the relationship between the dry/wet index and SST, this paper reveals the physical mechanism of the dry/wet variation and finds the early waring signals for drought climate change in the region.
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Keywords:
- middle Loess plateau /
- dry and wet in autumn /
- interannual and interdecadal timescales /
- sea surface temperature
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[12] Lucht W, Prentice I C, Myneni R B, Sitch S, Friedlingstein P, Cramer W, Bousquet P, Buermann W, Smith B 2002 Science 296 1687
[13] Stroeve J, Holland M M, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 doi: 10.1029/2007GL0297
[14] Wang H J 2001 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 18 376
[15] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chin. Sci. Bull. 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 符淙斌 2006 科学通报 51 2429]
[16] Ma Z G, Ren X B 2007 Adv. Clim. Chan. Res. 3 195 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 任小波 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 195]
[17] Zhang Y, Chen F H, Gou X H, Jin L Y, Tian Q H, Wang Y S, Peng J F 2007 Acta Geogra. Sin. 62 1142 (in Chinese) [张永, 陈发虎, 勾晓华, 靳立亚, 田沁花, 王有生, 彭剑峰 2007 地理学报 62 1142]
[18] Wei J, Tao S Y, Zhang Q Y 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 91 (in Chinese) [卫捷, 陶诗言, 张庆云 2003 地理学报 58 91]
[19] Shen B Z, Zhang S X, Yang H W, Wang K, Feng G L 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 109202 (in Chinese) [沈柏竹, 张世轩, 杨涵洧, 王阔, 封国林 2012 61 109202]
[20] Su T, Zhang S X, Zhi R, Chen L J 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 109202 [苏涛, 张世轩, 支蓉, 陈丽娟 2013 62 069203]
[21] Gu W, Li W J, Chen L J, Jia X L 2012 Clim Enviro. Res. 17 467 (in Chinese) [顾薇, 李维京, 陈丽娟, 贾小龙 2012 气候与环境研究 17 467]
[22] Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[23] Sun L C, Zhang C J 2003 Jouranl of Glaciology and Geocryology 25 143 (in Chinese) [宋连春, 张存杰, 2003 冰川冻土 25 143]
[24] Zhang C J, Gao X J, Zhao H Y, 2003 J. Glaci. Geocry. 25 157 (in Chinese) [张存杰, 高学杰, 赵红岩 2003 冰川冻土 25 157]
[25] Li Y H, Li D L, Zhao Q Y, Feng J Y 2000 Clim. Enviro. Res. 25 102 (in Chinese) [李耀辉, 李栋梁, 赵庆云, 冯建英 2000 气候与环境研究 25 102]
[26] Liu X Y, Li D L, Wang J S 2012 J. Des. Res. 32 473 (in Chinese) [刘晓云, 李栋梁, 王劲松 2012 中国沙漠 32 473]
[27] Ma Z G, Hunag G, Gan Wen Q, Chen M L 2005 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 29 671 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 黄刚, 甘文强, 陈明林 2005 大气科学 29 671]
[28] Wu H B, Wu L 2005 Methods for Diagnosing and Forcesting Climate Variability (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p15, 198, 208 (in Chinese) [吴洪宝, 吴蕾 2005 气候变率诊断和预测方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第15, 198, 208页]
[29] Torrence C, Compo G P 1998 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 79 61
[30] Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S 2004 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 11 561
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[32] Niu N, Li J P 2008 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 25 117
[33] Wu H, Feng G L, Hou W, Yan P C 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 059202 (in Chinese) [吴浩, 封国林, 侯威, 彦鹏程 2013 62 059202]
[34] Yao C G, He Z W, Zhan M 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030503
[35] Jiang L L, Luo X Q, Wu D, Zhu S Q 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 090503
[36] Yang J H, Liu X B 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 050504
[37] Wang Z G, Chao J P 1990 Acta Metero. Sin. 48 438 (in Chinese) [王章贵, 巢纪平 1990 气象学报 48 438]
[38] Yan H M, Zhong M, Zhu Y Z 2003 J. Astro. 44 324 (in Chinese) [闫昊明, 钟敏, 朱耀仲 2003 天文学报 44 324]
[39] Wu B Y, Zhang R H 2011 Acta Metero. Sin. 69 220 (in Chinese) [武炳义, 张人禾 2011 气象学报 69 220]
[40] Kuang X Y, Zhang Y C 2006 Acta Metero. Sin. 64 564 (in Chinese) [况雪源, 张耀存 2006 气象学报 64 564]
[41] Gao Y X, Xu S Y 1999 The Colloquium of Gao Youxi Academician (Guangzhou: Sun Yat-sen University Press) p170 (in Chinese) [高由禧, 徐淑英 1999 高由禧院士文集 (广州: 中山大学出版社)第170页]
[42] Ding Y H 1991 Advanced Synoptic Meteorology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p792 (in Chinese) [丁一汇 1991 高等天气学 (北京: 气象出版社) 第792页]
[43] Wu H, Hou W, Qian Z H, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149205 (in Chinese) [吴浩, 侯威, 钱中华, 胡经国 2012 61 149205]
[44] Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]
[45] Zhang L, Zhang D Q, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 5896 (in Chinese) [张璐, 章大全, 封国林 2012 59 5896]
[46] He X C, Li Q P, Ding Y H, He J H 2007 Acta Metero. Sin. 65 18 (in Chinese) [何溪澄, 李巧萍, 丁一汇, 何金海 2007 气象学报 65 18]
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[1] Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 129201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 汪萍, 张凯静 2013 62 129201]
[2] Zhang Q, Wang S 2008 Adv. Earth. Sci. 23 167 (in Chinese) [张强, 王胜 2008 地球科学进展 23 167]
[3] Hung J P, Zhang W, Zuo J Q, Bi J R, Shi J S, Wang X, Chang Z L, Huang Z W, Yang S, Zhang B D, Wang G Y, Feng G H, Yuan J Y, Zhang L, Zuo H C, Wang S G, Fu C B, Chou J F 2008 Adv. Atmo. Sci. 25 906
[4] Zhang Q, Zeng J, Zhang L Y, Yao T 2012 Chin Sci. Earth. Sci. 42 1385 (in Chinese) [张强, 曾剑, 张立阳, 姚彤 中国科学: 地球科学 42 1385]
[5] Zhang Q, Sun Z X, Wang S 2011 Chin J. Geophys 54 1722 (in Chinese) [张强, 孙昭萱, 王胜 2011 地球 54 1722]
[6] Zhang Q, Li H Y, Zhang L Y, Yue P, Shi J S 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 019201 (in Chinese) [张强, 李宏宇, 张立阳, 岳平, 史晋森 2013 31 019201]
[7] Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, Wang P 2007 Prog. Natur. Sci. 17 42
[8] Zhang Q, Li H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 716 (in Chinese) [张强, 李宏宇 2010 59 716]
[9] Yue P, Zhang Q, Niu S J, Wang R Y, Sun X Y, Wang S 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 219201 (in Chinese) [岳平, 张强, 牛生杰, 王润元, 孙旭映, 王胜 2012 61 219201]
[10] Yue P, Zhang Q, Niu S J, Cheng H, Wang X Y 2011 Acta meteorol. Sin 25 774
[11] Zeng Q C, Zhou G Q, Pu Y F, Chen W, Li R F, Liao H, Lin Z H, Liu H Z, Wang B Z, Xie Z H, Xu Y F, Xue F, Zeng X D, Zhang F 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 653 (in Chinese) [曾庆存, 周广庆, 浦一芬, 陈文, 李荣凤, 廖宏, 林朝晖, 刘辉志, 王必正, 谢正辉, 徐永福, 薛峰, 曾晓东, 张凤 2008 大气科学 32 653]
[12] Lucht W, Prentice I C, Myneni R B, Sitch S, Friedlingstein P, Cramer W, Bousquet P, Buermann W, Smith B 2002 Science 296 1687
[13] Stroeve J, Holland M M, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 doi: 10.1029/2007GL0297
[14] Wang H J 2001 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 18 376
[15] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chin. Sci. Bull. 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 符淙斌 2006 科学通报 51 2429]
[16] Ma Z G, Ren X B 2007 Adv. Clim. Chan. Res. 3 195 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 任小波 2007 气候变化研究进展 3 195]
[17] Zhang Y, Chen F H, Gou X H, Jin L Y, Tian Q H, Wang Y S, Peng J F 2007 Acta Geogra. Sin. 62 1142 (in Chinese) [张永, 陈发虎, 勾晓华, 靳立亚, 田沁花, 王有生, 彭剑峰 2007 地理学报 62 1142]
[18] Wei J, Tao S Y, Zhang Q Y 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 91 (in Chinese) [卫捷, 陶诗言, 张庆云 2003 地理学报 58 91]
[19] Shen B Z, Zhang S X, Yang H W, Wang K, Feng G L 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 109202 (in Chinese) [沈柏竹, 张世轩, 杨涵洧, 王阔, 封国林 2012 61 109202]
[20] Su T, Zhang S X, Zhi R, Chen L J 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 109202 [苏涛, 张世轩, 支蓉, 陈丽娟 2013 62 069203]
[21] Gu W, Li W J, Chen L J, Jia X L 2012 Clim Enviro. Res. 17 467 (in Chinese) [顾薇, 李维京, 陈丽娟, 贾小龙 2012 气候与环境研究 17 467]
[22] Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[23] Sun L C, Zhang C J 2003 Jouranl of Glaciology and Geocryology 25 143 (in Chinese) [宋连春, 张存杰, 2003 冰川冻土 25 143]
[24] Zhang C J, Gao X J, Zhao H Y, 2003 J. Glaci. Geocry. 25 157 (in Chinese) [张存杰, 高学杰, 赵红岩 2003 冰川冻土 25 157]
[25] Li Y H, Li D L, Zhao Q Y, Feng J Y 2000 Clim. Enviro. Res. 25 102 (in Chinese) [李耀辉, 李栋梁, 赵庆云, 冯建英 2000 气候与环境研究 25 102]
[26] Liu X Y, Li D L, Wang J S 2012 J. Des. Res. 32 473 (in Chinese) [刘晓云, 李栋梁, 王劲松 2012 中国沙漠 32 473]
[27] Ma Z G, Hunag G, Gan Wen Q, Chen M L 2005 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 29 671 (in Chinese) [马柱国, 黄刚, 甘文强, 陈明林 2005 大气科学 29 671]
[28] Wu H B, Wu L 2005 Methods for Diagnosing and Forcesting Climate Variability (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p15, 198, 208 (in Chinese) [吴洪宝, 吴蕾 2005 气候变率诊断和预测方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第15, 198, 208页]
[29] Torrence C, Compo G P 1998 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 79 61
[30] Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S 2004 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 11 561
[31] Wei F Y 2007 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p37, 63 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第37, 63页]
[32] Niu N, Li J P 2008 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 25 117
[33] Wu H, Feng G L, Hou W, Yan P C 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 059202 (in Chinese) [吴浩, 封国林, 侯威, 彦鹏程 2013 62 059202]
[34] Yao C G, He Z W, Zhan M 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030503
[35] Jiang L L, Luo X Q, Wu D, Zhu S Q 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 090503
[36] Yang J H, Liu X B 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 050504
[37] Wang Z G, Chao J P 1990 Acta Metero. Sin. 48 438 (in Chinese) [王章贵, 巢纪平 1990 气象学报 48 438]
[38] Yan H M, Zhong M, Zhu Y Z 2003 J. Astro. 44 324 (in Chinese) [闫昊明, 钟敏, 朱耀仲 2003 天文学报 44 324]
[39] Wu B Y, Zhang R H 2011 Acta Metero. Sin. 69 220 (in Chinese) [武炳义, 张人禾 2011 气象学报 69 220]
[40] Kuang X Y, Zhang Y C 2006 Acta Metero. Sin. 64 564 (in Chinese) [况雪源, 张耀存 2006 气象学报 64 564]
[41] Gao Y X, Xu S Y 1999 The Colloquium of Gao Youxi Academician (Guangzhou: Sun Yat-sen University Press) p170 (in Chinese) [高由禧, 徐淑英 1999 高由禧院士文集 (广州: 中山大学出版社)第170页]
[42] Ding Y H 1991 Advanced Synoptic Meteorology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p792 (in Chinese) [丁一汇 1991 高等天气学 (北京: 气象出版社) 第792页]
[43] Wu H, Hou W, Qian Z H, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149205 (in Chinese) [吴浩, 侯威, 钱中华, 胡经国 2012 61 149205]
[44] Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]
[45] Zhang L, Zhang D Q, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 5896 (in Chinese) [张璐, 章大全, 封国林 2012 59 5896]
[46] He X C, Li Q P, Ding Y H, He J H 2007 Acta Metero. Sin. 65 18 (in Chinese) [何溪澄, 李巧萍, 丁一汇, 何金海 2007 气象学报 65 18]
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