Research on drought in southwest China based on the theory of run and two-dimensional joint distribution theory

Zuo Dong-Dong; Hou Wei; Yan Peng-Cheng; Feng Tai-Chen

doi:10.7498/aps.63.230204

Abstract

Based on the standardized precipitation index data of 89 meteorological stations in southwest China (Sichuan Province, Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Chongqing) during 1961-2010, the probability and interval time were analyzed by employing the theory of run and the Copula function. The droughts with duration less than 4 months and the severity less than 3 account for 80% of all the droughts in southwest China. Drought types are mainly light within a month, moderate within a month, severe within a season and severe within inter-seasons. The frequency of occurring of drought with a duration less than 3 months and the severity less than 1 is higher in the eastern and western areas, and the central region has higher frequencies of occurrence of drought with a duration greater than 3 months and with severity greater than 1.5. Return periods of drought in eastern and western areas are longer than that of central region. More obvious spatial difference appears with longer duration and greater severity. The probability differences of the same drought type in different climatic types are within 0.05, indicating that there is no wide-range fluctuation in the occurrence probabilities of all the drought types as the time goes on.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
3.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305056, 41175067) and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901).

References

[1]	Gao H, Yang S 2009 J. Geophys. Res. 114 D24104
[2]	Qian W H, Shan X L, Zhu Y F 2011 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28 310
[3]	Xin X G, Yu R C, Zhou T J, Wang B 2006 J. Climate 19 3197
[4]	Xin X G, Yu R C, Zhou T J 2009 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 33 1165 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 宇如聪, 周天军 2009 大气科学 33 1165]
[5]	Yu W J, Shao M Y, Ren M L, Zhou H J, Jiang Z H, Li D L 2013 Acta Ecol. Sin. 33 317
[6]	Yang J, Gong D Y, Wang W S, Hu M, Mao R 2012 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 115 173
[7]	Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[8]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[9]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[10]	Huang J P, Minnis P, Yan H, Yi Y, Chen B, Zhang L, Ayers J K 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 6863
[11]	Huang J P, Guan X, Ji F 2012 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12 5391
[12]	Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 129201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 汪萍, 张凯静 2013 62 129201]
[13]	Dai X G, Zhang K J 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 张凯静 2012 61 199201]
[14]	McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J 1993 Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology Anaheim, USA, January 17-22, 1993 p179
[15]	McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J 1995 9th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology Dallas, USA, January 15-20, 1995 p233
[16]	Kangas R S, Brown T J 2007 Int. J. Climatol. 27 1303
[17]	Alley W M 1985 J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 21 105
[18]	Lana X, Burgueno A 1998 Int. J. Climatol. 18 93
[19]	Hou W, Zhang C J, Gao G 2013 Arid Zone Res. 30 74 (in Chinese) [侯威, 张存杰, 高歌 2013 干旱区研究 30 74]
[20]	Sklar A 1959 Fonctions de Répartition àn Dimensions et Leurs Marges (Paris: Publications de l'Institut de Statistique de L'Université de Paris) pp229-231
[21]	Liu C L, Zhang Q, Vijay P S, Cui Y 2011 Nat. Hazards 59 1533
[22]	Shiau J T, Reza M, Saralees N 2012 Environ. Model. Assess. 17 469
[23]	Ummul F A R, Panlop Z 2014 Theor. Appl. Climatol. 115 153
[24]	Kao S C, Rao S G 2010 J. Hydrol. 380 121
[25]	Li J, Li Y, Song S B, Cui C F 2012 J. China Hydrol. 32 43 (in Chinese) [李计, 李毅, 宋松柏, 崔晨风 2012 水文 32 43]
[26]	Liu J G, Wan J H, Tan X M, Ma J M, Zhang N Q 2011 J. Disaster Preven. Miti. Eng. 31 196 (in Chinese) [刘建刚, 万金红, 谭徐明, 马建明, 张念强 2011 防灾减灾工程学报 31 196]
[27]	Li Y H, Xu H M, Liu D 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 122 (in Chinese) [李永华, 徐海明, 刘德 2009 气象学报 67 122]
[28]	Song J, Yang H, Li C Y 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1009 (in Chinese) [宋洁, 杨辉, 李崇银 2011 大气科学 35 1009]
[29]	Herbst P H, Bredenkamp D B, Barker H M G 1966 J. Hydrol. 4 264
[30]	Guttman N B 1998 J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 34 113
[31]	Mohan S, Rangacharya N C V 1991 Hydrol. Sci. J. 36 11
[32]	Shen H W, Guillermo Q T 1995 J. Hydraul. Eng. 121 413
[33]	Zelenhastić E, Salvai A 1987 Water Resour. Res. 23 156
[34]	Shiau J T, Hsieh W S 2001 J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 127 30
[35]	Fu G T, David B 2014 J. Hydrol. 510 49
[36]	Zhang L, Singh V P 2007 J. Hydrol. 332 93

Cited By

[1]	Gao H, Yang S 2009 J. Geophys. Res. 114 D24104
[2]	Qian W H, Shan X L, Zhu Y F 2011 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28 310
[3]	Xin X G, Yu R C, Zhou T J, Wang B 2006 J. Climate 19 3197
[4]	Xin X G, Yu R C, Zhou T J 2009 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 33 1165 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 宇如聪, 周天军 2009 大气科学 33 1165]
[5]	Yu W J, Shao M Y, Ren M L, Zhou H J, Jiang Z H, Li D L 2013 Acta Ecol. Sin. 33 317
[6]	Yang J, Gong D Y, Wang W S, Hu M, Mao R 2012 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 115 173
[7]	Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[8]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[9]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[10]	Huang J P, Minnis P, Yan H, Yi Y, Chen B, Zhang L, Ayers J K 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 6863
[11]	Huang J P, Guan X, Ji F 2012 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12 5391
[12]	Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 129201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 汪萍, 张凯静 2013 62 129201]
[13]	Dai X G, Zhang K J 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 张凯静 2012 61 199201]
[14]	McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J 1993 Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology Anaheim, USA, January 17-22, 1993 p179
[15]	McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J 1995 9th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology Dallas, USA, January 15-20, 1995 p233
[16]	Kangas R S, Brown T J 2007 Int. J. Climatol. 27 1303
[17]	Alley W M 1985 J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 21 105
[18]	Lana X, Burgueno A 1998 Int. J. Climatol. 18 93
[19]	Hou W, Zhang C J, Gao G 2013 Arid Zone Res. 30 74 (in Chinese) [侯威, 张存杰, 高歌 2013 干旱区研究 30 74]
[20]	Sklar A 1959 Fonctions de Répartition àn Dimensions et Leurs Marges (Paris: Publications de l'Institut de Statistique de L'Université de Paris) pp229-231
[21]	Liu C L, Zhang Q, Vijay P S, Cui Y 2011 Nat. Hazards 59 1533
[22]	Shiau J T, Reza M, Saralees N 2012 Environ. Model. Assess. 17 469
[23]	Ummul F A R, Panlop Z 2014 Theor. Appl. Climatol. 115 153
[24]	Kao S C, Rao S G 2010 J. Hydrol. 380 121
[25]	Li J, Li Y, Song S B, Cui C F 2012 J. China Hydrol. 32 43 (in Chinese) [李计, 李毅, 宋松柏, 崔晨风 2012 水文 32 43]
[26]	Liu J G, Wan J H, Tan X M, Ma J M, Zhang N Q 2011 J. Disaster Preven. Miti. Eng. 31 196 (in Chinese) [刘建刚, 万金红, 谭徐明, 马建明, 张念强 2011 防灾减灾工程学报 31 196]
[27]	Li Y H, Xu H M, Liu D 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 122 (in Chinese) [李永华, 徐海明, 刘德 2009 气象学报 67 122]
[28]	Song J, Yang H, Li C Y 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1009 (in Chinese) [宋洁, 杨辉, 李崇银 2011 大气科学 35 1009]
[29]	Herbst P H, Bredenkamp D B, Barker H M G 1966 J. Hydrol. 4 264
[30]	Guttman N B 1998 J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 34 113
[31]	Mohan S, Rangacharya N C V 1991 Hydrol. Sci. J. 36 11
[32]	Shen H W, Guillermo Q T 1995 J. Hydraul. Eng. 121 413
[33]	Zelenhastić E, Salvai A 1987 Water Resour. Res. 23 156
[34]	Shiau J T, Hsieh W S 2001 J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 127 30
[35]	Fu G T, David B 2014 J. Hydrol. 510 49
[36]	Zhang L, Singh V P 2007 J. Hydrol. 332 93

[1]	Li Hong-Yu, Fu Cong-Bin, Guo Wei-Dong, Ma Fang. Study of energy partitioning and its feedback on the microclimate over different surfaces in an arid zone. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(5): 059201. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.059201
[2]	Zuo Dong-Dong, Hou Wei, Wang Wen-Xiang. Sensitivity analysis of sample number on the drought descriptive model built by Copula function in southwest China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2015, 64(10): 100203. doi: 10.7498/aps.64.100203
[3]	Wang Wen-Xiang, Zuo Dong-Dong, Feng Guo-Lin. Analysis of the drought vulnerability characteristics in Northeast China based on the theory of information distribution and diffusion. Acta Physica Sinica, 2014, 63(22): 229201. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.229201
[4]	Liang Jie-Ning, Zhang Lei, Zhang Wu, Shi Jin-Sen. Energy balance analysis over Loess Plateau and the consequences for carbon dioxide flux. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(9): 099203. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.099203
[5]	Zhou Jie, Wu Yong-Ping, Feng Guo-Lin, Hu Jing-Guo. Spatial and temporal characteristics of moisture cycle factors over China analyzed with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(19): 199202. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.199202
[6]	Yue Ping, Zhang Qiang, Zhao Wen, Wang Jin-Song, Wang Run-Yuan, Yao Yu-Bi, Wang Sheng, Hao Xiao-Cui, Yang Fu-Lin, Wang Ruo-An. Effects of clouds and precipitation disturbance on the surface radiation budget and energy balance over loess plateau semi-arid grassland in China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(20): 209201. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.209201
[7]	Yue Ping, Zhang Qiang, Li Yao-Hui, Wang Run-Yuan, Wang Sheng, Sun Xu-Ying. Bulk transfer coefficients of momentum and sensible heat over semiarid grassland surface and their parameterization scheme. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(9): 099202. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.099202
[8]	Ye Min, Qian Zhong-Hua, Wu Yong-Ping. Spatiotemporal evolution of the droughts and floods over China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2013, 62(13): 139203. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.139203
[9]	Wang Sheng, Zhang Qiang. Atmospheric physical characteristics of dew formation in semi-arid in loess plateau. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(5): 059203. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.059203
[10]	Yang Jie, Hou Wei, Feng Guo-Lin. A prediction theory of record-breaking PDSI of China. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(1): 664-675. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.664
[11]	Zhang Da-Quan, Zhang Lu, Yang Jie, Feng Guo-Lin. The impact of temperature and precipitation variation on drought in China in last 50 years. Acta Physica Sinica, 2010, 59(1): 655-663. doi: 10.7498/aps.59.655
[12]	Hou Wei, Yang Ping, Feng Guo-Lin. The decadal variability and its cause of the extreme drought in china. Acta Physica Sinica, 2008, 57(6): 3932-3940. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.3932
[13]	Hu Heng, Pan Long-Fa, Qi Guo-Sheng, Hu Hua, Xu Duan-Yi. Study of multi-level run-length limited photo-chromic storage. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(4): 1759-1763. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.1759
[14]	WANG CHUN-LEI, QIN ZI-KAI, D. L. LIN. GREEN'S FUNCTION THEORY OF PHASE TRANSITION IN HYDROGEN-BOND FERROELECTRICS (Ⅱ). Acta Physica Sinica, 1990, 39(4): 547-554. doi: 10.7498/aps.39.547
[15]	HUANG SHI-HUA, LOU LI-REN. TRANSFER FUNCTION THEORY FOR FLUORESCENCE DYNAMICS. Acta Physica Sinica, 1989, 38(3): 422-429. doi: 10.7498/aps.38.422
[16]	SHUAI ZHI-GANG, SUN XIN, FU ROU-LI. CORRELATED-BASIS-FUNCTION THEORY FOR EXCITED STATES. Acta Physica Sinica, 1989, 38(10): 1648-1657. doi: 10.7498/aps.38.1648
[17]	WANG CHUN-LEI, ZHANG JIN-BO, QIN ZI-KAI, D. L. LIN. GREEN'S FUNCTION THEORY OF PHASE TRANSITIONS IN HYDROGEN-BOND FERROELECTRICS (Ⅰ). Acta Physica Sinica, 1989, 38(11): 1740-1747. doi: 10.7498/aps.38.1740
[18]	SUN XIN, LI TIE-CHENG, G. W. WU. CORRELATED WAVE FUNCTION THEORY FOR METAL SURFACES (Ⅰ)——THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK. Acta Physica Sinica, 1982, 31(11): 1466-1473. doi: 10.7498/aps.31.1466
[19]	WANG WAI-TONG, LIN ZHONG-HENG, SU ZHAO-BIN, HAO BAI-LIN. THE CLOSED TIME PATH GREEN'S FUNCTIONS AND THE THEORY OF NONLINEAR RESPONSE (Ⅰ). Acta Physica Sinica, 1982, 31(11): 1483-1492. doi: 10.7498/aps.31.1483
[20]	WANG WAI-TONG, LIN ZHONG-HENG, SU ZHAO-BIN, HAO BAI-LIN. THE CLOSED TIME PATH GREEN'S FUNCTIONS AND THE THEORY OF NONLINEAR RESPONSE (Ⅱ). Acta Physica Sinica, 1982, 31(11): 1493-1500. doi: 10.7498/aps.31.1493

Catalog

Vol. 63, Issue 23 - 2014-12-05

Metrics

Abstract views: 7968
PDF Downloads: 712
Cited By: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

Search

Article

留言板