基于信息分配和扩散理论的东北地区干旱脆弱性特征分析

王文祥; 左冬冬; 封国林

doi:10.7498/aps.63.229201

摘要

基于信息分配和扩散理论, 结合标准化降水指数和东北三省(黑龙江、吉林、辽宁)旱灾灾损指数, 综合考虑了气象因子与社会因子, 分析了我国东北三省19712012年的干旱脆弱性特征, 并进一步计算了我国东北三省的干旱风险. 使用信息分配方法估计干旱强度概率分布, 采用二维正态信息扩散方法构造了干旱强度与旱灾灾损的脆弱性关系, 将干旱强度的概率分布与脆弱性折线相乘求和(离散分布)或积分(连续分布)即可得到多年平均风险. 研究表明, 针对灾损的小样本事件引入信息分配和扩散方法对小样本数据进行分析, 获取的干旱强度概率分布比简单直方图法所得更加平滑, 而以事件为因、灾损为果得到干旱强度-旱灾灾损的脆弱性关系, 物理意义明确, 所得脆弱性关系折线也比较符合实际情况, 并且不同样本长度所得结果相近, 对样本长度不敏感, 较好地克服了小样本分析的不稳定性.

关键词:

Abstract

The drought vulnerability characteristics from 1971 to 2012 in Northeast China are analysed and the risk in Northeast China is calculated based on the theory of information distribution and diffusion, combining with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the drought damage index (DDI) in Northeast China, with considering the meteorological factors and social factors. The probability density function (PDF) of DSI is estimated by using the method of information distribution. The vulnerability of the relationship between DSI and DDI is constructed by using the method of two-dimensional normal information diffusion. Then the average risk can be obtained by calculating the sum (discrete distribution) or integral (continuous distribution) of the product of the PDF of DSI and the vulnerability curve. The results show that the introduction of information distribution and diffusion method to analyze the problem of vulnerability for the situation of small sample could render the PDF of DSI smoother. What is more, the vulnerability of the relationship between DSI and DDI through the DSI to obtain the DDI has clearer physical meaning. Therefore the results could be realistic. More significantly, similar results can be obtained with different simple lengths, which means that the method is insensitive to the simple length and it can well overcome the instability of analysis of the small sample.

Keywords:

information distribution and diffusion /
standardized precipitation index /
vulnerability /
risk

作者及机构信息

1.
扬州大学物理科学与技术学院, 扬州 225000

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:41305056,41175067)和国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(批准号:2012CB955901)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Department of Physics Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225000, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305056, 41175067) and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901).

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施引文献

[1]	Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[2]
[3]	Sheffield J, Wood E F, Roderick M L 2012 Nature 491 435
[4]	Kingtse C M, Jae-Kyung E S, Yoo S H 2009 J. Climate. 22 5962
[5]
[6]	Duan Y, Wang W, Cai X J 2013 Plateau Meteorol. 32 1126 (in Chinese) [段莹, 王文, 蔡晓军 2013 高原气象 32 1126]
[7]
[8]	Xie W S, Tian H 2011 Meteorol. Monthly 37 503 (in Chinese) [谢五三, 田红 2011气象 37 503]
[9]
[10]
[11]	Yuan W P, Zhou G S 2004 Adv. Earth Sci. 19 982 (in Chinese) [袁文平, 周广胜 2004 地球科学进展 19 982]
[12]	Hou W, Zhang C J, Gao G 2013 Arid Zone Res. 30 74 (in Chinese) [侯威, 张存杰, 高歌 2013 干旱区研究 30 74]
[13]
[14]
[15]	Zhang Q, Ju X S, Li S H 1998 Meteorol. Sci. Technol. 2 48 (in Chinese) [张强, 鞠笑生, 李淑华 1998 气象科技 2 48]
[16]	Hou W, Zhang C J, Gao G 2012 Meteorol. Monthly 38 701 (in Chinese) [侯威, 张存杰, 高歌 2012 气象 38 701]
[17]
[18]
[19]	How W, Yang P, Zheng Z H, Gong Z Q 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2106 (in Chinese) [侯威, 杨萍, 郑志海, 龚志强 2009 58 2106]
[20]	How W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3932 (in Chinese) [侯威, 杨萍, 封国林 2008 57 3932]
[21]
[22]	How W, Yang J, Feng G L 2014 Plateau Meteorol. 33 432 (in Chinese) [侯威, 杨杰, 封国林 2014 高原气象 33 432]
[23]
[24]	How W, Zhao J H, Feng G L 2014 Plateau Meteorol. 33 443 (in Chinese) [侯威, 赵俊虎, 封国林 2014 高原气象 33 443]
[25]
[26]
[27]	How W, Yang J, Zhao J H 2013 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 24 695 (in Chinese) [侯威, 杨杰, 赵俊虎 2013 应用气象学报 24 695]
[28]	Wang Z L, Wang J S, Li Y H, Wang C H 2013 Plateau Meteorol. 30 839 (in Chinese) [王芝兰, 王劲松, 李耀辉, 王澄海 2013 高原气象 30 839]
[29]
[30]	Wang J S, Guo J Y, Zhou Y W, Yang L F 2007 Arid Land Geography 30 60 (in Chinese) [王劲松, 郭江勇, 周跃武, 杨兰芳 2007 干旱区地理 30 60]
[31]
[32]
[33]	Dai X G, Fu C B, Wang P 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 850
[34]
[35]	Zeng H L, Gao X Q, Zhang W 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 1265
[36]	Pang X L, Huang C F, Ai F L 2012 Chin. Agricult. Sci. Bull. 28 271 (in Chinese) [庞西磊, 黄崇福, 艾福利 2012 中国农学通报 28 271]
[37]
[38]
[39]	Wang Y, Li Y H, Zhao F N, Hu T T 2013 J. Arid Meteorol. 31 43 (in Chinese) [王莺, 李耀辉, 赵福年, 胡田田 2013 干旱气象 31 43]
[40]	Li W L, Zhang D Y, Zhang L J 2009 Arid Land Geography 32 754 (in Chinese) [李文亮, 张冬有, 张丽娟 2009 干旱区地理 32 754]
[41]
[42]
[43]	Adger W N 2006 Global Environ. Change 16 268
[44]
[45]	Hans-Martin F, Klein R J T 2006 Climatic Change 75 301
[46]
[47]	Shamsuddin S, Houshang B 2008 Nat. Hazards 46 391
[48]	Smit B, Wandel J 2006 Global Environ. Change 16 282
[49]
[50]	Tan L R, Chen K, Wang J, Yu L Z 2011 Sci. Geograph. Sin. 31 1111 (in Chinese) [谭丽荣, 陈珂, 王军, 俞立中 2011 地理科学 31 1111]
[51]
[52]
[53]	Birkmann J, Luber G, O'Neill B, Takahashi K 2014 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability (IPCO) (Cambridye: Cambridye University Press) Cha. 19
[54]	Wang C H, Wang K L, Xiong Y, Xu L F, Yang X L 2003 Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin 12 586 (in Chinese) [汪朝辉, 王克林, 熊鹰, 许联芳, 杨勋林 2003 长江流域资源与环境 12 586]
[55]
[56]	Chen F L, Yan L, Guo Z H 2013 J. Appl. Oceanography 32 577 (in Chinese) [陈菲莉, 颜利, 郭洲华 2013 应用海洋学学报 32 577]
[57]
[58]
[59]	Zhou Y, Wang J A 2012 Adv. Earth Sci. 27 435 (in Chinese) [周瑶, 王静爱 2012 地球科学进展 27 435]
[60]	Smith D I 1994 Water SA Manuscript 20 231
[61]
[62]	Huang C F, Guo J, Ai F L, Wu T 2013 J. Natural Disasters 22 11 (in Chinese) [黄崇福, 郭君, 艾福利, 吴彤 2013 自然灾害学报 22 11]
[63]
[64]	Huang C F 2001 Int. J. General Syst. 30 603
[65]
[66]	Zhang R, Xu Z S, Huang Z S, Zeng G, Shen S H 2012 Adv. Earth Sci. 27 1229 (in Chinese) [张韧, 徐志升, 黄志松, 曾刚, 申双和 2012 地球科学进展 27 1229]
[67]
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[71]
[72]	McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J 1995 9th Conference on Applied Climatology Dallas, Texas, Jan. 15-20, 1995 pp233-236
[73]
[74]	Agnew C, Warren A 1996 J. Arid Envrion. 33 309
[75]
[76]	Huang C F 2012 Natural Disaster Risk Analysis and Management (Beijing: Science Press) pp47-49 (in Chinese) [黄崇福 2012 自然灾害风险分析与管理 (北京: 科学出版社)第4749页]
[77]	Huang C F 2008 J. Basic Sci. Engineer. 16 371 (in Chinese) [黄崇福 2008 应用基础与工程科学学报 16 371]
[78]
[79]
[80]	Yan B W, Guo S L, Xiao Y, Fang B 2007 Arid Zone Res. 24 537 (in Chinese) [闫宝伟, 郭生练, 肖义, 方彬 2007 干旱区研究 24 537]
[81]
[82]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林 2009 58 4342]
[83]
[84]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Q. J. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[85]
[86]	Huang J P, Yi Y H 1991 Sci. China B 34 1246
[87]
[88]	Huang J P, Wang S W 1992 Sci. China B 35 207

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