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On the basis of the potential field data on 500 hPa from 2000-2010 from NCEP/NCAR, introducing the ideas of EOF(empirical orthogonal function) time-space separation and the dynamic system reconstruction of time series, with the advantages of the global optimization and parallel calculation by genetic assistance, dynamic model inversion is carried out, thus a nonlinear forecast model of the subtropical high activity and aberrance is established. And a mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high activity was carried out. The results of dynamic model forecast experiment showed that the mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high pressure by our model can be very actual. Especially, the aberrance of the subtropical high pressure can be drawn and forecast. A new method of idea is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high activity.
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Keywords:
- subtropical high pressure /
- 500 hPa potential field /
- dynamic retrieve /
- GA
[1] Lau K M, Li M T 1984 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 65 114
[2] Zhu Q G, He J H, Wang P X 1986 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 3 466
[3] Huang R H, Wu Y F 1989 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 6 21
[4] Wu G X, Chou J F, Liu Y M 2003 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 27 503 (in Chinese) [吴国雄, 丑纪范, 刘屹岷 2003 大气科学 27 503]
[5] Zhao Z G 1999 Summertime Floods and Drought s in China and t he Associated Circulations (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p45 (in Chinese) [赵振国 1999 中国夏季旱涝及环境场(北京: 气象出版社) 第45页]
[6] Mu Q Z, Wang SW, Zhu J H 2001 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 25 787 (in Chinese) [慕巧珍, 王绍武, 朱锦红 2001 大气科学 25 787]
[7] Lu R Y 2002 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 19 1004
[8] Sui C H, Chung P H, Li T 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 11701
[9] Kang I S, Lee J Y, Park C K 2004 J. Climate 17 834
[10] ShiH B, Zhou T J, Wan H 2008 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 32 36 (in Chinese) [施洪波, 周天军, 万慧 2008 大气科学 32 36]
[11] Li L J, Wang B, Wang Y Q 2007 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 24 323
[12] Wang B, Wan H, Ji Z Z 2004 Science in China A 47 (Suppl.) 4
[13] Zhou T J, Yu R C 2006 J. Climate 19 5843
[14] Li L J, Wang B, Zhou T J 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 18807
[15] Hong M, Zhang R, He J H, Xue F, Ge J J 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 6871 (in Chinese) [洪梅, 张韧, 何金海, 薛峰, 葛晶晶 2010 59 6871]
[16] Zhang R, Hong M 2008 Chinese Journal of Ceophysics 51 203 (in Chinese) [张韧, 洪梅 2008 地球 51 203]
[17] Chen T L, Gao Z Y, Li K P 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1213
[18] Dai D, Ma X K, You Y, Li F C 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 2459 (in Chinese) [戴栋, 马西奎, 李富才, 尤勇 2002 51 2459]
[19] Li Z C, Chen D H 2002 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 13 1 (in Chinese) [李泽春, 陈德辉 2002 应用气象学报 13 1]
[20] Tan J Q, Xie Z H, Ji L R 2003 Advances of Atmospheric Sciences 20 837
[21] Zou L W, Zhou T J, Wu B, Chen H M, Li L J 2009 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 33 959 (in Chinese) [邹立维, 周天军, 吴波, 陈昊明, 李立娟 2009 大气科学 33 959]
[22] Lecture F 1981 Notes in Mathematics 898 361
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[1] Lau K M, Li M T 1984 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 65 114
[2] Zhu Q G, He J H, Wang P X 1986 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 3 466
[3] Huang R H, Wu Y F 1989 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 6 21
[4] Wu G X, Chou J F, Liu Y M 2003 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 27 503 (in Chinese) [吴国雄, 丑纪范, 刘屹岷 2003 大气科学 27 503]
[5] Zhao Z G 1999 Summertime Floods and Drought s in China and t he Associated Circulations (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p45 (in Chinese) [赵振国 1999 中国夏季旱涝及环境场(北京: 气象出版社) 第45页]
[6] Mu Q Z, Wang SW, Zhu J H 2001 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 25 787 (in Chinese) [慕巧珍, 王绍武, 朱锦红 2001 大气科学 25 787]
[7] Lu R Y 2002 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 19 1004
[8] Sui C H, Chung P H, Li T 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 11701
[9] Kang I S, Lee J Y, Park C K 2004 J. Climate 17 834
[10] ShiH B, Zhou T J, Wan H 2008 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 32 36 (in Chinese) [施洪波, 周天军, 万慧 2008 大气科学 32 36]
[11] Li L J, Wang B, Wang Y Q 2007 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 24 323
[12] Wang B, Wan H, Ji Z Z 2004 Science in China A 47 (Suppl.) 4
[13] Zhou T J, Yu R C 2006 J. Climate 19 5843
[14] Li L J, Wang B, Zhou T J 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 18807
[15] Hong M, Zhang R, He J H, Xue F, Ge J J 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 6871 (in Chinese) [洪梅, 张韧, 何金海, 薛峰, 葛晶晶 2010 59 6871]
[16] Zhang R, Hong M 2008 Chinese Journal of Ceophysics 51 203 (in Chinese) [张韧, 洪梅 2008 地球 51 203]
[17] Chen T L, Gao Z Y, Li K P 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1213
[18] Dai D, Ma X K, You Y, Li F C 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 2459 (in Chinese) [戴栋, 马西奎, 李富才, 尤勇 2002 51 2459]
[19] Li Z C, Chen D H 2002 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 13 1 (in Chinese) [李泽春, 陈德辉 2002 应用气象学报 13 1]
[20] Tan J Q, Xie Z H, Ji L R 2003 Advances of Atmospheric Sciences 20 837
[21] Zou L W, Zhou T J, Wu B, Chen H M, Li L J 2009 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 33 959 (in Chinese) [邹立维, 周天军, 吴波, 陈昊明, 李立娟 2009 大气科学 33 959]
[22] Lecture F 1981 Notes in Mathematics 898 361
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