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Ensemble prediction is an effective approach to accounting for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. By combining the predictability of extended-range, both predictable components and unpredictable random components with different characteristics are treated with different ensemble prediction schemes and strategies. A new predictability-based extended-range ensemble prediction method (PBEP) is proposed. In this method, for predictable component, the uncertainty of model is taken into account through the use of multiple error correction scheme; while the random component probability distribution is obtained from the climate probability distribution of historical data, for the sake of avoiding the influence of model error. Prediction results show that the ensemble prediction method can improve the forecast skill in all regions of the world, and the extents of improvement are different for waves with different spatial scales compared with the operational dynamical extended-range ensemble prediction system of NCC/CMA, exhibiting its potential application perspective to operational extended-range prediction.
[1] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2] Chou J F 1989 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 6 335
[3] Chen B H, Li J P, Ding R Q 2006 Science in China (Series D) 49 1111
[4] Buizza R, Houtekamer, P L, Toth Z, Pellerin G, Wei M, Zhu Y 2005 Mon. Wea. Rev. 133 1076
[5] Zhu Y 2005 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 22 781
[6] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰2003 52 2347]
[7] Toth Z, Kalnay E 1997 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 3297
[8] Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer T N, Petroliagis T 1996 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc 122 73
[9] Houtekamer, P L, Lefaivre L, Derome J, Ritchie H, Mitchell H L 1996 Mon. Wea. Rev. 124 1225
[10] Gong J D, Li W J, Chou J F 1999 Chinese Science Bulletin 44 1113 (in Chinese) [龚建东, 李维京, 丑纪范1999科学通报 44 1113]
[11] Mu M, Jiang Z N 2007 Chinese Science Bulletin 52 1457 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 姜智娜2007 科学通报 52 1457]
[12] Duan W S, Mu M 2009 Science in China (Series D) 52 884
[13] Wei M, Toth Z, Wobus R, Zhu Y, Bishop C H, Wang X 2006 Tellus 58 28
[14] Buizza R, Miller M, Palmer T N 1999 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 125 2887
[15] Mu M, Duan W S, Wang Q, Zhang R 2010 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 17 211
[16] Krishnamurti T N, Kishtawal C M, Zhang Z, Larow T, Bachiochi D, Williford E, Gadgil S, Surendran S 2000 J. Climate 13 4196
[17] Zheng Z H 2010 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [郑志海 2010 博士学位论文 (兰州:兰州大学)]
[18] Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Scientia Meteorologica Sinica 30 569(in Chinese) [丑纪范,郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 30 569]
[19] Wang P, Dai X G 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 4961 (in Chinese) [汪萍,戴新刚 2005 54 4961]
[20] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[21] Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. 15 882
[22] Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Chou J F, Ren H L 2010 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 21 139 (in Chinese) [郑志海,封国林,丑纪范,任宏利 2010 应用气象学报 21 139]
[23] Shi N, Chen H, Chen Y, 2001 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 17 215 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈辉, 谌芸 2001 热带气象学报 17 215]
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[1] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2] Chou J F 1989 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 6 335
[3] Chen B H, Li J P, Ding R Q 2006 Science in China (Series D) 49 1111
[4] Buizza R, Houtekamer, P L, Toth Z, Pellerin G, Wei M, Zhu Y 2005 Mon. Wea. Rev. 133 1076
[5] Zhu Y 2005 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 22 781
[6] Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰2003 52 2347]
[7] Toth Z, Kalnay E 1997 Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 3297
[8] Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer T N, Petroliagis T 1996 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc 122 73
[9] Houtekamer, P L, Lefaivre L, Derome J, Ritchie H, Mitchell H L 1996 Mon. Wea. Rev. 124 1225
[10] Gong J D, Li W J, Chou J F 1999 Chinese Science Bulletin 44 1113 (in Chinese) [龚建东, 李维京, 丑纪范1999科学通报 44 1113]
[11] Mu M, Jiang Z N 2007 Chinese Science Bulletin 52 1457 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 姜智娜2007 科学通报 52 1457]
[12] Duan W S, Mu M 2009 Science in China (Series D) 52 884
[13] Wei M, Toth Z, Wobus R, Zhu Y, Bishop C H, Wang X 2006 Tellus 58 28
[14] Buizza R, Miller M, Palmer T N 1999 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 125 2887
[15] Mu M, Duan W S, Wang Q, Zhang R 2010 Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 17 211
[16] Krishnamurti T N, Kishtawal C M, Zhang Z, Larow T, Bachiochi D, Williford E, Gadgil S, Surendran S 2000 J. Climate 13 4196
[17] Zheng Z H 2010 Ph. D. Dissertation (Lanzhou: Lanzhou University) (in Chinese) [郑志海 2010 博士学位论文 (兰州:兰州大学)]
[18] Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Scientia Meteorologica Sinica 30 569(in Chinese) [丑纪范,郑志海, 孙树鹏 2010 气象科学 30 569]
[19] Wang P, Dai X G 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 4961 (in Chinese) [汪萍,戴新刚 2005 54 4961]
[20] Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 119 547
[21] Gao L, Ren H L, Li J P, Chou J F 2006 Chin. Phys. 15 882
[22] Zheng Z H, Feng G L, Chou J F, Ren H L 2010 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science 21 139 (in Chinese) [郑志海,封国林,丑纪范,任宏利 2010 应用气象学报 21 139]
[23] Shi N, Chen H, Chen Y, 2001 Journal of Tropical Meteorology 17 215 (in Chinese) [施能, 陈辉, 谌芸 2001 热带气象学报 17 215]
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