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The traditional detection method of abrupt change may pay more attention on the "point of abrupt change" and neglect the process of its onset, development and extinction. This paper has proposed a new detection method to obtain the abrupt change process (ACP); it can extract suitable parameters from real time series by using a piecewise function which is based on a logistic model that reflects the ACP. With the help of parameters' physical meaning, we researched and analyzed the whole ACP, deepened the understanding and awareness of ACP, to lay the scientific foundation for further study on the formation mechanism, affecting factors and trends of the abrupt change. Besides, by detecting the PDO time series' ACP, we also find that the time series began to change in 1940/1942, 1977, 1987, and the duration of abrupt change is locked in some fixed values; furthesmore, the phase graph of the system showed that a normal system world have 3 basic states.
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Keywords:
- mean abrupt change /
- extract parameters /
- abrupt change process /
- duration of abrupt change
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[2] Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482 ]
[3] Li J P, Chou J F, Shi J E 1996 Journal of Beijing Meteorological college 1 7 (in Chinese) [李建平, 丑纪范, 史久恩 1996 北京气象学院 1 7]
[4] Yamamoto R, Iwashima T, Sanga N K 1985 J. Meteor. Soc. 63 1157
[5] Goossens C, Berger A 1986 Annals of Geophysics 4 385
[6] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰, 李建平 2005 54 5494]
[7] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 万仕全, 李建平 2006 55 477]
[8] He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 59 8264]
[9] He W P, He T, Cheng H Y, Zhang W, Wu Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 049202 (in Chinese) [何文平, 何涛, 成海英, 张文, 吴琼 2012 60 049202]
[10] Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 61 069201]
[11] Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]
[12] Robert M. May 1976 Nature 261 459
[13] Liu B Z,Peng J H 2004 Nonlinear Dynamics (Beijing: Higher Education Press) p215-218 (in Chinese) [刘秉正, 彭建华 2004 非线性动力学 (北京: 高等教育出版社) 第215–218页]
[14] Yan P C, Hou W, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 189202 (in Chinese) [颜鹏程, 侯威, 胡经国 2012 61 189202]
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[1] Thom R 1972 Stability Structural and Morphogenesis (Sichuan:Sichuan Education Press) p73 (in Chinese) [雷内·托姆 1972 结构稳定性与形态发生学 (四川: 四川教育出版社) 第73页]
[2] Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482 ]
[3] Li J P, Chou J F, Shi J E 1996 Journal of Beijing Meteorological college 1 7 (in Chinese) [李建平, 丑纪范, 史久恩 1996 北京气象学院 1 7]
[4] Yamamoto R, Iwashima T, Sanga N K 1985 J. Meteor. Soc. 63 1157
[5] Goossens C, Berger A 1986 Annals of Geophysics 4 385
[6] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰, 李建平 2005 54 5494]
[7] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 万仕全, 李建平 2006 55 477]
[8] He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 59 8264]
[9] He W P, He T, Cheng H Y, Zhang W, Wu Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 049202 (in Chinese) [何文平, 何涛, 成海英, 张文, 吴琼 2012 60 049202]
[10] Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 61 069201]
[11] Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]
[12] Robert M. May 1976 Nature 261 459
[13] Liu B Z,Peng J H 2004 Nonlinear Dynamics (Beijing: Higher Education Press) p215-218 (in Chinese) [刘秉正, 彭建华 2004 非线性动力学 (北京: 高等教育出版社) 第215–218页]
[14] Yan P C, Hou W, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 189202 (in Chinese) [颜鹏程, 侯威, 胡经国 2012 61 189202]
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