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We investigate precursors and predictability of extreme events of Lorenz system with different percentile. The precursors and predictability of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extremes in China are analyzed, and obtained how the quality of the prediction depends on the size of the extreme events and on the correlation strength. Results indicate that for extreme events of Lorenz system and PDSI series, the stronger the extreme, the higher the predictablility. Moreover, we analyzed precursors and predictability of eight regions in China and provide some due scientific basis for flood and drought predictions.
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Keywords:
- extreme events /
- precursors /
- predictability
[1] Wei F Y 2007 Modern Technology of Statistical Climate Detection and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p6 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第6页]
[2] Render S, Mark R P 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[3] Jan F E, Jan W K, Armin B, Shlomo H 2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 016130
[4] Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全、杨 杰、王启光、封国林 2009 58 4354 ]
[5] Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, How W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林、杨 杰、万仕全、侯 威、支 蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[6] Sarah H, Eduardo G A, Detlef H, Holger K 2007 Phys. Rev. E 75 016706
[7] Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 14 1959
[8] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[9] Lorenz E N 1997 The Essence of Chaos (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p33 (in Chinese) [洛伦兹 1997 混沌的本质 (北京: 气象出版社) 第33页]
[10] Kantz H, Holstein D, Ragwitz M, Vitanov N K 2004 Physica A 342 315
[11] Gober M, Wilson C A, Milton S F, Stephenson D B 2004 J. Hydrol. 288 225
[12] Lamper D, Howison S D, Johnson N F 2002 Phys. Rev. Lett. 88 1
[13] Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p61
[14] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorl. 5 1117
[15] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Karl T R 1998 Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 3367
[16] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorol. 5 1117
[17] Karl T R 1983 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 22 1356
[18] Karl T R 1986 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 25 77
[19] Karl T R, Koscielny A J 1982 J. Climate 2 313
[20] Nkemdirim L, Weber L 1999 J. Climate 12 2434
[21] Zou X K, Zhai P M, Zhang Q 2005 Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 04707
[22] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chinese Sci. Bull. 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国、符淙斌 2006 科学通报 51 2429]
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[1] Wei F Y 2007 Modern Technology of Statistical Climate Detection and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p6 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第6页]
[2] Render S, Mark R P 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[3] Jan F E, Jan W K, Armin B, Shlomo H 2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 016130
[4] Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全、杨 杰、王启光、封国林 2009 58 4354 ]
[5] Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, How W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林、杨 杰、万仕全、侯 威、支 蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[6] Sarah H, Eduardo G A, Detlef H, Holger K 2007 Phys. Rev. E 75 016706
[7] Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 14 1959
[8] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[9] Lorenz E N 1997 The Essence of Chaos (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p33 (in Chinese) [洛伦兹 1997 混沌的本质 (北京: 气象出版社) 第33页]
[10] Kantz H, Holstein D, Ragwitz M, Vitanov N K 2004 Physica A 342 315
[11] Gober M, Wilson C A, Milton S F, Stephenson D B 2004 J. Hydrol. 288 225
[12] Lamper D, Howison S D, Johnson N F 2002 Phys. Rev. Lett. 88 1
[13] Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p61
[14] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorl. 5 1117
[15] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Karl T R 1998 Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 3367
[16] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorol. 5 1117
[17] Karl T R 1983 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 22 1356
[18] Karl T R 1986 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 25 77
[19] Karl T R, Koscielny A J 1982 J. Climate 2 313
[20] Nkemdirim L, Weber L 1999 J. Climate 12 2434
[21] Zou X K, Zhai P M, Zhang Q 2005 Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 04707
[22] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chinese Sci. Bull. 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国、符淙斌 2006 科学通报 51 2429]
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