基于游程理论和两变量联合分布的中国西南地区干旱特征研究

左冬冬; 侯威; 颜鹏程; 封泰晨

doi:10.7498/aps.63.230204

摘要

基于中国西南地区(四川省、云南省、贵州省和重庆市)89个站点19612010年的逐月标准化降水指数序列, 利用游程理论和Copula函数分析了这一地区不同等级和不同历时干旱的出现概率及重现期特征. 结果表明: 西南地区的干旱事件多为历时小于4个月、强度小于3的干旱事件; 月内轻旱、月内中旱、季内特旱和跨季特旱的概率较大.干旱历时小于3个月和干旱强度为中旱以下的干旱类型多出现在西南地区的东部和西部, 而干旱历时大于3个月和干旱强度为重旱以上的干旱类型多出现在西南地区中部. 西南地区东部和西部的重现期大于中部地区, 且随着干旱历时和干旱强度的增大, 重现期空间差异越明显. 而且, 各气候态下相同干旱类型的概率差值不大, 概率波动范围为 0.05, 即随着时间推移, 各干旱类型出现的概率均未出现较大幅度的变化.

关键词:

Abstract

Based on the standardized precipitation index data of 89 meteorological stations in southwest China (Sichuan Province, Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Chongqing) during 1961-2010, the probability and interval time were analyzed by employing the theory of run and the Copula function. The droughts with duration less than 4 months and the severity less than 3 account for 80% of all the droughts in southwest China. Drought types are mainly light within a month, moderate within a month, severe within a season and severe within inter-seasons. The frequency of occurring of drought with a duration less than 3 months and the severity less than 1 is higher in the eastern and western areas, and the central region has higher frequencies of occurrence of drought with a duration greater than 3 months and with severity greater than 1.5. Return periods of drought in eastern and western areas are longer than that of central region. More obvious spatial difference appears with longer duration and greater severity. The probability differences of the same drought type in different climatic types are within 0.05, indicating that there is no wide-range fluctuation in the occurrence probabilities of all the drought types as the time goes on.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
扬州大学物理科学与技术学院, 扬州 225002;

2.
中国气象局国家气候中心, 气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081;

3.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:41305056,41175067)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2012CB955901)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;

2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;

3.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305056, 41175067) and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901).

参考文献

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施引文献

[1]	Gao H, Yang S 2009 J. Geophys. Res. 114 D24104
[2]	Qian W H, Shan X L, Zhu Y F 2011 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28 310
[3]	Xin X G, Yu R C, Zhou T J, Wang B 2006 J. Climate 19 3197
[4]	Xin X G, Yu R C, Zhou T J 2009 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 33 1165 (in Chinese) [辛晓歌, 宇如聪, 周天军 2009 大气科学 33 1165]
[5]	Yu W J, Shao M Y, Ren M L, Zhou H J, Jiang Z H, Li D L 2013 Acta Ecol. Sin. 33 317
[6]	Yang J, Gong D Y, Wang W S, Hu M, Mao R 2012 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 115 173
[7]	Huang R H, Liu Y, Wang L, Wang L 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 443 (in Chinese) [黄荣辉, 刘永, 王林, 王磊 2012 大气科学 36 443]
[8]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[9]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[10]	Huang J P, Minnis P, Yan H, Yi Y, Chen B, Zhang L, Ayers J K 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 6863
[11]	Huang J P, Guan X, Ji F 2012 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12 5391
[12]	Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 129201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 汪萍, 张凯静 2013 62 129201]
[13]	Dai X G, Zhang K J 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 张凯静 2012 61 199201]
[14]	McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J 1993 Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology Anaheim, USA, January 17-22, 1993 p179
[15]	McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J 1995 9th AMS Conference on Applied Climatology Dallas, USA, January 15-20, 1995 p233
[16]	Kangas R S, Brown T J 2007 Int. J. Climatol. 27 1303
[17]	Alley W M 1985 J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 21 105
[18]	Lana X, Burgueno A 1998 Int. J. Climatol. 18 93
[19]	Hou W, Zhang C J, Gao G 2013 Arid Zone Res. 30 74 (in Chinese) [侯威, 张存杰, 高歌 2013 干旱区研究 30 74]
[20]	Sklar A 1959 Fonctions de Répartition àn Dimensions et Leurs Marges (Paris: Publications de l'Institut de Statistique de L'Université de Paris) pp229-231
[21]	Liu C L, Zhang Q, Vijay P S, Cui Y 2011 Nat. Hazards 59 1533
[22]	Shiau J T, Reza M, Saralees N 2012 Environ. Model. Assess. 17 469
[23]	Ummul F A R, Panlop Z 2014 Theor. Appl. Climatol. 115 153
[24]	Kao S C, Rao S G 2010 J. Hydrol. 380 121
[25]	Li J, Li Y, Song S B, Cui C F 2012 J. China Hydrol. 32 43 (in Chinese) [李计, 李毅, 宋松柏, 崔晨风 2012 水文 32 43]
[26]	Liu J G, Wan J H, Tan X M, Ma J M, Zhang N Q 2011 J. Disaster Preven. Miti. Eng. 31 196 (in Chinese) [刘建刚, 万金红, 谭徐明, 马建明, 张念强 2011 防灾减灾工程学报 31 196]
[27]	Li Y H, Xu H M, Liu D 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 122 (in Chinese) [李永华, 徐海明, 刘德 2009 气象学报 67 122]
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[29]	Herbst P H, Bredenkamp D B, Barker H M G 1966 J. Hydrol. 4 264
[30]	Guttman N B 1998 J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 34 113
[31]	Mohan S, Rangacharya N C V 1991 Hydrol. Sci. J. 36 11
[32]	Shen H W, Guillermo Q T 1995 J. Hydraul. Eng. 121 413
[33]	Zelenhastić E, Salvai A 1987 Water Resour. Res. 23 156
[34]	Shiau J T, Hsieh W S 2001 J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. 127 30
[35]	Fu G T, David B 2014 J. Hydrol. 510 49
[36]	Zhang L, Singh V P 2007 J. Hydrol. 332 93

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