基于临界慢化现象的气候突变前兆信号的初步研究

吴浩; 侯威; 颜鹏程; 封国林

doi:10.7498/aps.61.209202

摘要

近年来,临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋于临界性灾变方面展示了重要潜力. 基于临界慢化的理念,研究了气候突变的早期预警信号.针对20世纪70年代末80年代初的气候突变, 对全国月平均温度资料和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数进行分析,分别计算了表征临界慢化现象的方差和自相关系数.结果表明,气候发生突变前,全国月平均温度和PDO指数都存在明显的临界慢化现象, 这表明临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个早期信号.将临界慢化理论用于气候突变前兆信号的研究, 对深入认识气候突变和捕捉气候突变前兆信号都具有重要的现实意义和科学价值.

关键词:

Abstract

In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in the area of disclosing whether complex dynamic system tends to critical cataclysm. Based on the concepts of critical slowing down, the observed data of pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index and the national average monthly temperature are processed in this article to study the precursory signals of abrupt climate change. Take the abrupt climate change in a period from the late1970s to the early 1980s for example, the variances and autocorrelation coefficients which can characterize critical slowing down are calculated separately. The results show that the PDO index and the national average monthly temperature both have obviously a critical slowing down phenomenon before the abrupt climate change takes place, which indicates that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change. The introduction of critical slowing down theory into abrupt climate change precursory signals and study on it have practical significance and important scientific value for thoroughly understanding the abrupt climate change and for catching the precursory signals of abrupt climate change.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
扬州大学物理科学与技术学院, 扬州 225002;

2.
国家气候中心, 北京 100081;

3.
西北师范大学物理与电子工程学院, 兰州 730070

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号: 2012CB955902)和国家自然科学基金(批准号: 41175067, 41105033)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;

2.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;

3.
College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175067, 41105033).

参考文献

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施引文献

[1]	Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]
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[4]	Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]
[5]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[6]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational Data (Beijing: the Weather Publishing Company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社) 第5-8页]
[7]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 54 5494]
[8]	Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 54 5487]
[9]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 3180]
[10]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 56 3619]
[11]	He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 58 2862 ]
[12]	He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 59 8264]
[13]	He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 60 029203]
[14]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604
[15]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[16]	Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[17]	Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecol. Lett. 9 311
[18]	Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecol. Lett. 11 450
[19]	Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science Press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象(北京:科学出版社)]
[20]	Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球 54 1817]
[21]	Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp62-76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京:气象出版社) 第62-76页]
[22]	Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[23]	Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes E H II 2008 Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[24]	Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2009 Acta Meteo. Sin. 67 307 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 支蓉, 封国林, 张强 2009 气象学报 67 307]
[25]	Xiao D, Li J P 2007 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 31 839 (in Chinese) [肖栋, 李建平 2007 大气科学 31 839]
[26]	Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 61 069201]
[27]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3920 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2008 57 3920]
[28]	Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]

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