中国夏冬两季最概然温度分布及其增温趋势减缓

钱忠华; 封国林; 龚志强

doi:10.7498/aps.59.7498

摘要

利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心1961—2008年夏、冬两季日平均温度资料,基于偏态分布函数提出最概然温度.研究表明,最概然温度比平均温度更能合理地代表气象观测站的背景温度场.就年代际而言,在20世纪90年代中期之前,中国夏季年最概然温度以相对低温为主,随后呈现波动增温趋势,但自2005年增温趋势有所减缓.冬季年最概然温度在1961—1986年这一时段以相对低温为主,1987年到21世纪初显著变暖,但2000年后增温趋势减缓.总体而言,冬季增温幅度较夏季强,且增温时间早于夏季5—10年.本文定义的1961

关键词:

Abstract

Most probable temperature (MPT) is defined according to the skewed function by using daily average temperature records of the National Meteorological Information Center from 1961 to 2008 in China, it can represent every stations background temperature explicitly. MPT interannual variations show that MPT in summer was relativelly low-temperature-major before the mid-1990s and from then on was warming with fluctuation, but since 2005 the trend slowed down, and that MPT in winter was relatively low-temperature-major in 1961—1986, and from 1987 to the beginning of the 21st century was warming up obviously, but since 2000 the warming trend slowed down. The warming amplitude in winter was stronger than that in summer and the time of beginning of warming in winter was earlier than that in summer by about 5—10 years. Studying three climate states of MPT changes of 1961—1990, 1971—2000 and 1981—2008, we found that in summer MPT got warmer obviously in the third climate state, while in winter in the second state. MPT warming trend was slowing down in the third state. Its worthy of note that in Sichuan, Guangdong and Guangxi MPT even began to decline in the last few years. Whether it means climatic transformation or not needs further research.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

(1)兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000; (2)兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000,中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京 100029,扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,扬州 225002

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金 (批准号:40930952, 40875040, 40775048)、科技部支撑项目 (批准号:2007BAC29B01)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(批准号:GYHY200806005)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

(1)Department of Atmospheric and Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; (2)Department of Atmospheric and Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China, Key Laboratoy of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperature East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, Ch

参考文献

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[30]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[31]	Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Zhou L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2113 (in Chinese) [支蓉、龚志强、郑志海、周磊 2009 58 2113]
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施引文献

[1]	Karl T R, Kukla G 1991 Geophys. Res. Lett. 18 2253
[2]	Karl T R, Jones P D, Knight R W 1993 Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74 1007
[3]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Chin. Phys. 12 1076
[4]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强、王晓娟、支蓉、封国林 2009 58 4342]
[5]	Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736
[6]	Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 3932 (in Chinese) [侯威、杨萍、封国林 2008 57 3932]
[7]	Feng G L, Wang Q G, Hou W, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2853 (in Chinese) [封国林、王启光、侯威、龚志强、支蓉 2009 58 2853]
[8]	Zhang D Q, Qian Z H 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 4634 (in Chinese)[章大全、钱忠华 2008 57 4634]
[9]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林、龚志强、董文杰、李建平 2005 54 5494]
[10]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-temporal Distribution of the Observational Data (Beijing:Metrological press) (in Chinese) [封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯威、万仕全、支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(北京:气象出版社)第27—第57页]
[11]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 21
[12]	Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Zhou L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2113 (in Chinese) [支蓉、龚志强、郑志海、周磊 2009 58 2113]
[13]	He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[14]	Wang Q G, Hou W, Zheng Z H, Gao R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 6640 (in Chinese) [王启光、侯威、郑志海、高荣 2009 58 6640 ]
[15]	Zhi R, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 1837 (in Chinese) [支蓉、廉毅、封国林 2007 56 1837]
[16]	Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA:Cambridge University Press) p316
[17]	Feng G L, Hou W, Dong W J 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 962 (in Chinese) [封国林、侯威、董文杰 2006 55 962 ]
[18]	Ding Y G 1994 Sci. Atoms. Sin. 18 552 (in Chines) [丁裕国 1994 大气科学 18 552]
[19]	Wang Z C 2008 Statistic and Thermodynamic Physics (fourth edition)(Beijing:Higher Education Press) p256(in Chinese) [汪志诚 2008 热力学统计物理(第四版)(北京:高等教育出版社)第256页]
[20]	Yang Z L, Abeysinghe T 2002 Econom. Lett. 76 259
[21]	Cho K, Yeo I K, Johnson R A, Loh W Y 2001 Stat. Probabil. Lett. 51 337
[22]	Cheng L X, Zhou X J, Li W L 2004 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 62 634 (in Chinese) [程隆勋、周秀骥、李维亮 2004 气象学报 62 634]
[23]	Wei F Y, Cao H X, 2003 J. Appl. Meteorol. Sci. 14 80 (in Chinese) [魏凤英、曹鸿兴 2003 应用气象学报 14 80]
[24]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林、龚志强、支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[25]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[26]	Ding Y G, Liu J F, Zhang Y C 2004 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 28 771 (in Chinese) [丁裕国、刘吉峰、张耀存 2004 大气科学 28 771 ]
[27]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181 (in Chinese) [封国林、董文杰、贾晓静、曹鸿兴 2002 51 1181]
[28]	Feng G L,Gao X Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2008 Chaos Soliton. Fract. 37 487
[29]	Cheng B Y, Ding Y G, Wang F 2003 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 27 920 (in Chinese) [程炳岩、丁裕国、汪方 2003 大气科学 27 920]
[30]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[31]	Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Zhou L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2113 (in Chinese) [支蓉、龚志强、郑志海、周磊 2009 58 2113]
[32]	Redner S, Petersen M R 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[33]	Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林、杨杰、万仕全、侯威、支蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61 ]
[34]	Wang Y, Shi N, Gu J Q, Feng G L, Zhang L B 2006 Sci. Atmos. Sin. 30 162 (in Chinese) [王颖、施能、顾骏强、封国林、张立波 2006 大气科学 30 162]
[35]	Feng C B 1994 Sci. Atmos. Sin. 18 373 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]
[36]	Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climat. 14 1959
[37]	Bamett T P 1990 Nature 343 743
[38]	Woo M K 1992 Climat. Change 20 313
[39]	Nagavajan R, Govindan R B 2006 Physica A 364 271
[40]	Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强、周磊、支蓉、封国林 2008 57 5351]

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