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选取全球历史气候网日值数据集中4个具有长时间大气温度序列的站点并统计其逐月距平值, 利用二阶去趋势的涨落分析法分析研究站点不同时段的气温序列长程相关性特征, 并计算4站在不同时段的最高气温、最低气温的相对变化趋势. 利用傅里叶滤波法生成具有与各站不同时段气温序列相同的长程相关性强度及数据长度相等的代用序列, 并估算出其源于系统内部自然变率的“增/降温”范围, 经分析可知气温序列内部自然变率导致的趋势变化范围与其长度成反比, 而与序列的长程相关性强弱成正比. 最后对比实际温度序列的相对变化趋势以及在95%和99%的置信概率下自然变率的趋势范围, 除SAGINAW MBS INTL AP站日最高气温序列外, 各站点的日最高气温和最低气温长时间序列普遍表现为明显的外部变化趋势, 近30年各站最高、最低气温序列的变化趋势则未超自然变率的趋势范围, 虽不能排除外部趋势的存在, 但与气候系统内部各因子相互作用的影响相比, 这种外部趋势并不显著. 该方法可判别全球变暖背景下气候因子的变化趋势是否显著地由气候系统外部因子引起, 从而能有针对性地对系统外(内)部影响因子展开进一步的研究.Long-term historical air temperature records of four stations from Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily are analyzed in this study. By applying detrended fluctuation analysis of the second order to the monthly anomalies, different long-term correlations are found in different time periods at both the maximum and minimum temperatures, which indicate the existence of internal stochastic trend. By generating surrogate data with the same long-term correlations and data length, internal stochastic trends are estimated with confidence probability intervals of 95% and 99% provided. We find the longer data length, the shorter confidence probability interval we have; the stronger long-term correlation, the wider confidence probability interval is obtained. By comparing the temperature trends observed from the historical temperature records with the corresponding confidence probability intervals of the internal stochastic trends, significant external trends can be detected. We find that except for the maximum temperature in SAGINAW MBS INTL AP, temperatures from the four stations all show significant external trends when long historical data (>100 years) are considered. However, if only the past 30 years are taken into account, the observed trends are still not strong enough to exceed the confidence probability interval. Although we cannot exclude the existence of external trends, considering the possible influence from internal stochastic trends, the external trends are not significant. From this detection method, we can judge, in the context of global warming, whether an observed trend is significantly induced by external forcing. Therefore, it is useful for our further study targeting the internal (external) climatic impact factors.
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Keywords:
- long-term persistence /
- external trend /
- de-trended fluctuation analysis /
- Fourier-filtering method
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[2] Chou J F 2002 Nonlinear and Complexity in Atmospherics Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) (in Chinese) [丑纪范2002大气科学中的非线性与复杂性 (北京: 气象出版社)]
[3] Diao Y N, Feng G L, Liu S D, Liu S K, Luo D H, Huang S X, Lu W S, Chou J F 2004 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 21 399
[4] Ding R Q, Feng G L, Liu S D, Liu S K, Huang S X, Fu Z T 2007 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 24 1077
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[20] Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L, Zhu S S 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[21] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[22] He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 58 2862]
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[24] Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333 (in Chinese) [杨萍, 侯威, 封国林 2008 57 5333]
[25] Zheng Z H, Feng A X, Deng B S, Wang Q G, Hou W 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 7491 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 冯爱霞, 邓北胜, 王启光, 侯威 2010 59 7491]
[26] Zhao J H, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2012 Acta Meteor. Sin. 70 302 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2012 气象学报 70 302]
[27] Hurst H E 1951 Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng. 116 770
[28] Yu Z G, Vo A, Gong Z M, Long S C 2002 Chin. Phys. 11 1313
[29] Hou F Z, Zhuang J J, Ning X B, Yang X D, Huo C Y 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 852
[30] Franzke C 2012 J. Climate 25 4172
[31] Lennartz S, Bunde A 2011 Phys. Rev. E 84 021129
[32] Lennartz S, Bunde A 2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 16706
[33] Yuan N, Fu Z, Mao J 2010 Physica A 389 4087
[34] Peng C K, Havlin S, Schwartz M, Stanley H E 1991 Phys. Rev. A 44 2239
[35] Jenkinson A F 1977 U. K. Met. Office Synoptic Clim. Branch Memo. 58 41
[36] Yuan N, Fu Z 2014 J. Climate 27 1742
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[1] Liu S D, Liu S K 1997 Chin. Sci. Bull. 42 1565 (in Chinese) [刘式达, 刘式适 1997 科学通报 42 1565]
[2] Chou J F 2002 Nonlinear and Complexity in Atmospherics Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) (in Chinese) [丑纪范2002大气科学中的非线性与复杂性 (北京: 气象出版社)]
[3] Diao Y N, Feng G L, Liu S D, Liu S K, Luo D H, Huang S X, Lu W S, Chou J F 2004 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 21 399
[4] Ding R Q, Feng G L, Liu S D, Liu S K, Huang S X, Fu Z T 2007 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 24 1077
[5] Yang P C, Bian J C, Wang G L, Zhou X J 2003 Chin. Sci. Bull. 48 1470 (in Chinese) [杨培才, 卞建春, 王革丽, 周秀骥 2003 科学通报 48 1470]
[6] Gao X Q, Wan S Q, He W P, Feng G L, Li J P, Dong W J 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 628
[7] Huang N E, Wu Z 2008 Rev. Geophys. 46 RG2006
[8] Rybski D, Bunde A 2009 Physica A 388 1687
[9] Chen Y, Xu Y P, Yin Y X 2008 J. Nanjing Univ. (Natural Sciences) 44 683 (in Chinese) [陈莹, 许有鹏, 尹义星2008 南京大学学报 (自然科学) 44 683]
[10] Gao L H, Fu Z T 2013 Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 6 74
[11] Jiang T H, Deng L T 2005 Plateau Meteor. 24 410 (in Chinese) [江田汉, 邓莲堂 2005 高原气象 24 410]
[12] Zheng Z F, Zhang X L, Cao H X, Xie Z, Pan J H 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. 50 420 (in Chinese) [郑祚芳, 张秀丽, 曹鸿兴, 谢庄, 潘家华 2007 地球 50 420]
[13] Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Roman H E, Goldreich Y, Schellnhuber H J 1998 Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 729
[14] Chen X, Lin G, Fu Z 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 07804
[15] Feng T, Fu Z, Deng X, Mao J 2009 Phys. Lett. A 373 4134
[16] Liu S D, Yuan N M, Fu Z T, Liu S K 2013 Sci. Sin.: Phys. Mech. Astron. 43 1327 (in Chinese) [刘式达, 袁乃明, 付遵涛, 刘式适 2013 中国科学: 物理学 力学 天文学 43 1327]
[17] Kantelhardt K, Koscielny-Bunde E, Rego H H A, Havlin S, Bunde A 1999 Phys. A 273 46
[18] Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S, Simons M, Stanley H E, Goldberger A L 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[19] Sheng P, Wang J F, Zhao S L, Tang T Q 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 080205
[20] Xu Z X, Yin K X, Xu Y L, Zhu S S 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 050503
[21] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[22] He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 58 2862]
[23] Feng G L, Wang Q G, Hou W, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2853 (in Chinese) [封国林, 王启光, 侯威, 龚志强, 支蓉 2009 58 2853]
[24] Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333 (in Chinese) [杨萍, 侯威, 封国林 2008 57 5333]
[25] Zheng Z H, Feng A X, Deng B S, Wang Q G, Hou W 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 7491 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 冯爱霞, 邓北胜, 王启光, 侯威 2010 59 7491]
[26] Zhao J H, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2012 Acta Meteor. Sin. 70 302 (in Chinese) [赵俊虎, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2012 气象学报 70 302]
[27] Hurst H E 1951 Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng. 116 770
[28] Yu Z G, Vo A, Gong Z M, Long S C 2002 Chin. Phys. 11 1313
[29] Hou F Z, Zhuang J J, Ning X B, Yang X D, Huo C Y 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 852
[30] Franzke C 2012 J. Climate 25 4172
[31] Lennartz S, Bunde A 2011 Phys. Rev. E 84 021129
[32] Lennartz S, Bunde A 2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 16706
[33] Yuan N, Fu Z, Mao J 2010 Physica A 389 4087
[34] Peng C K, Havlin S, Schwartz M, Stanley H E 1991 Phys. Rev. A 44 2239
[35] Jenkinson A F 1977 U. K. Met. Office Synoptic Clim. Branch Memo. 58 41
[36] Yuan N, Fu Z 2014 J. Climate 27 1742
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