Behavior characteristics from self-organization to criticality caused by cumulative damage leading to instability of locked segments in seismogenic fault system

Wu Xiao-Wa; Qin Si-Qing; Xue Lei; Yang Bai-Cun; Zhang Ke

doi:10.7498/aps.67.20180614

Abstract

Each of the seismogenic locked segments in a well-defined seismic zone can accumulate high strain energy to bring about a major earthquake. Hence, better understanding the physical implication of self-organized criticality in the locked segment (rock) failure process is crucial to achieving insights into such issues as earthquake predictability and so on. We point out that there exist two critical points in the locked segment fracturing process. The first critical point is volume expansion point, which is the starting point of self-organization, at which a rupture event with high energy occurs. It can be regarded as the only identified precursor to macroscopic rupture of locked segment. The second critical point is the peak strength point, namely, the instability point, at which a major earthquake which is able to generate obvious surface rupture zones takes place. According to our previous research on the theoretical relationship of strain ratio between the two points as well as the constrained expressions concerning earthquake magnitudes and elastic strain energy, also known as the theory about the brittle failure of multiple locked segments in a seismogenic fault system, we can predict some characteristic earthquakes occurring at the first and the second critical point of locked segment, e.g., the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman MW9.0 earthquake in Indonesia, the 2008 Sichuan MS8.1 earthquake in China, and the 2011 Tōhoku MW9.0 earthquake in Japan. This was obtained by retrospectively analyzing the earthquake cases in 62 seismic zones covering the circum-Pacific seismic belt and the Eurasia seismic belt. The present results show that the self-organized process before the locked segment (rock) instability must arise due to its heterogeneity; there exists a causal link between the self-organization and criticality; it is possible to predict some large earthquakes (e.g. characteristic earthquakes) just because of the existence of self-organized process. We emphasize here that the damage process between the two critical points is not transient behavior, usually a long-term process; the evolution of characteristic earthquakes follows a deterministic rule; there is no probability with which small earthquakes can cascade into a large event (e.g. characteristic earthquakes). In summary, this study can help to comprehend the evolutionary mechanism of characteristic earthquakes, provide a physical basis of understanding the generation process of earthquakes, and clarify such issues as the identification of earthquake types and predictability of earthquakes.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;
2.
Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
3.
Institutions of Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
4.
College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Corresponding author: Qin Si-Qing, qsqhope@mail.iggcas.ac.cn

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41572311, U1704243, 41302233, 41877218).

References

[1]	Bak P, Tang C, Wiesenfeld K 1987 Phys. Rev. Lett. 59 381
[2]	Gutenberg B, Richter C F 1944 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34 185
[3]	Geller R J, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, Mulargia F 1997 Science 275 1616
[4]	Stark P B 1996 Res. Lett. 23 1399
[5]	Wyss M, Aceves B R L, Park S K 1997 Science 278 487
[6]	Sykes L R, Shaw B E, Scholz C H 1999 Pure Appl. Geophys. 155 207
[7]	Crampin S, Gao Y 2010 Geophys. J. Int. 180 1124
[8]	Wu Z L 1998 Earthquake Research in China 14 1 (in Chinese)[吴忠良 1998 中国地震 14 1]
[9]	Frette V, Christensen K, Malthe-Srenssen A, Feder J, Jssang T, Mrakin P 1996 Nature 379 49
[10]	Ramos O, Altshuler E, Mly K J 2009 Phys. Rev. Lett. 102 078701
[11]	Wu X W, Qin S Q, Xue L, Yang B C, Li P, Zhang K 2016 Chinese J. Geophys. 59 3696 (in Chinese)[吴晓娲, 秦四清, 薛雷, 杨百存, 李培, 张珂 2016 地球 59 3696]
[12]	Qin S Q, Xu X W, Hu P, Wang Y Y, Huang X, Pan X H 2010 Chinese J. Geophys. 53 1001 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 徐锡伟, 胡平, 王媛媛, 黄鑫, 泮晓华 2010 地球 53 1001]
[13]	Sornette A, Sornette D 1989 EPL 9 197
[14]	Chen K, Bak P, Obukhov S P 1991 Phys. Rev. A 43 625
[15]	Zheng J 1992 Prog. Geophys. 7 20 (in Chinese)[郑捷 1992 地球物理学进展 7 20]
[16]	Godano C, Alonzo M L, Caruso V 1993 Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 80 117
[17]	Yoshioka N 2003 Earth Planets Space 55 283
[18]	Lu K Q, Hou M Y, Jiang Z H, Wang Q, Sun G, Liu J X 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 119103 (in Chinese)[陆坤权, 厚美瑛, 姜泽辉, 王强, 孙刚, 刘寄星 2012 61 119103]
[19]	Brace W F, Paulding B W, Scholz C H 1966 J. Geophys. Res. 71 3939
[20]	Bieniawski Z T 1967 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 4 395
[21]	Bieniawski Z T 1967 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 4 407
[22]	Martin C D, Chandler N A 1994 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 31 643
[23]	Xue L, Qi M, Qin S Q, Li G L, Li P, Wang M M 2015 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 48 1763
[24]	Xue L, Qin S Q, Sun Q, Wang Y Y, Lee M L, Li W C 2014 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 47 1183
[25]	Chen H R, Qin S Q, Xue L, Yang B C, Zhang K, Wu X W 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 2200 (in Chinese)[陈竑然, 秦四清, 薛雷, 杨百存, 张珂, 吴晓娲 2017 地球物理学进展 32 2200]
[26]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Zhang K 2018 Chinese J. Geophys. 61 616 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 张珂 2018 地球 61 616]
[27]	Lei X L, Masuda K, Nishizawa O, Jouniaux L, Liu L, Ma W, Satoh T, Kusunose K 2004 J. Struct. Geol. 26 247
[28]	Zhao X G, Wang J, Ma L K, Su R, Cai M, Wang G B 2013 Proceedings of the 3rd ISRM SINOROCK Symposium. London: CRC Press/Balkema, p75
[29]	Sun J 1999 Rheology of Rock and Soil Materials and its Engineering Application 1 (Beijing: China Architecture and Building Press) p434 (in Chinese)[孙钧 1999岩土材料流变及其工程应用 1 (北京: 中国建筑工业出版社) 第434页]
[30]	Hudson J A, Crouch S L, Fairhurst C 1972 Eng. Geol. 6 155
[31]	Meng X Y, Li S H, Zhang J F 2004 Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng. 23 1760 (in Chinese)[孟祥跃, 李世海, 张均锋 2004 岩石力学与工程学报 23 1760]
[32]	Qin S Q, Li P, Yang B C, Xue L, Wu X W 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 574 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 李培, 杨百存, 薛雷, 吴晓娲 2016 地球物理学进展 31 574]
[33]	Qin S Q, Yang B C, Wu X W, Xue L, Li P 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 115 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 吴晓娲, 薛雷, 李培 2016 地球物理学进展 31 115]
[34]	Qin S Q, Yang B C, Xue L, Li P, Wu X W 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 559 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 薛雷, 李培, 吴晓娲 2016 地球物理学进展 31 559]
[35]	Qin S Q, Li P, Xue L, Li G L, Wang M M 2014 Prog. Geophys. 29 1526 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 李培, 薛雷, 李国梁, 王苗苗 2014 球物理学进展 29 1526]
[36]	Li P, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Yang B C, Zhang K 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 1450 (in Chinese)[李培, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 杨百存, 张珂 2016 地球物理学进展 31 1450]
[37]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 1067 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学进展 32 1067]
[38]	Qin S Q, Yang B C, Xue L, Li P, Wu X W 2015 Prog. Geophys. 30 2013 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 薛雷, 李培, 吴晓娲 2015 地球物理学进展 30 2013]
[39]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 1953 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学进展 32 1953]
[40]	Xue L, Qin S Q, Li P, Li G L, Oyediran I A, Pan X H 2014 Eng. Geol. 182 79
[41]	Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P 2010 Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng. 29 873 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 王媛媛, 马平 2010 岩石力学与工程学报 29 873]
[42]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Chen H R, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Chinese J. Geophys. 60 1746 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 陈竑然, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球 60 1746]
[43]	Song Z P 2011 Global Earthquake Catalog 1 (Beijing: Seismological Press) pp1-450 (in Chinese)[宋治平 2011 全球地震目录 1 (北京: 地震出版社) 第1450页]

Cited By

[1]	Bak P, Tang C, Wiesenfeld K 1987 Phys. Rev. Lett. 59 381
[2]	Gutenberg B, Richter C F 1944 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 34 185
[3]	Geller R J, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, Mulargia F 1997 Science 275 1616
[4]	Stark P B 1996 Res. Lett. 23 1399
[5]	Wyss M, Aceves B R L, Park S K 1997 Science 278 487
[6]	Sykes L R, Shaw B E, Scholz C H 1999 Pure Appl. Geophys. 155 207
[7]	Crampin S, Gao Y 2010 Geophys. J. Int. 180 1124
[8]	Wu Z L 1998 Earthquake Research in China 14 1 (in Chinese)[吴忠良 1998 中国地震 14 1]
[9]	Frette V, Christensen K, Malthe-Srenssen A, Feder J, Jssang T, Mrakin P 1996 Nature 379 49
[10]	Ramos O, Altshuler E, Mly K J 2009 Phys. Rev. Lett. 102 078701
[11]	Wu X W, Qin S Q, Xue L, Yang B C, Li P, Zhang K 2016 Chinese J. Geophys. 59 3696 (in Chinese)[吴晓娲, 秦四清, 薛雷, 杨百存, 李培, 张珂 2016 地球 59 3696]
[12]	Qin S Q, Xu X W, Hu P, Wang Y Y, Huang X, Pan X H 2010 Chinese J. Geophys. 53 1001 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 徐锡伟, 胡平, 王媛媛, 黄鑫, 泮晓华 2010 地球 53 1001]
[13]	Sornette A, Sornette D 1989 EPL 9 197
[14]	Chen K, Bak P, Obukhov S P 1991 Phys. Rev. A 43 625
[15]	Zheng J 1992 Prog. Geophys. 7 20 (in Chinese)[郑捷 1992 地球物理学进展 7 20]
[16]	Godano C, Alonzo M L, Caruso V 1993 Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 80 117
[17]	Yoshioka N 2003 Earth Planets Space 55 283
[18]	Lu K Q, Hou M Y, Jiang Z H, Wang Q, Sun G, Liu J X 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 119103 (in Chinese)[陆坤权, 厚美瑛, 姜泽辉, 王强, 孙刚, 刘寄星 2012 61 119103]
[19]	Brace W F, Paulding B W, Scholz C H 1966 J. Geophys. Res. 71 3939
[20]	Bieniawski Z T 1967 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 4 395
[21]	Bieniawski Z T 1967 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 4 407
[22]	Martin C D, Chandler N A 1994 Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. 31 643
[23]	Xue L, Qi M, Qin S Q, Li G L, Li P, Wang M M 2015 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 48 1763
[24]	Xue L, Qin S Q, Sun Q, Wang Y Y, Lee M L, Li W C 2014 Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 47 1183
[25]	Chen H R, Qin S Q, Xue L, Yang B C, Zhang K, Wu X W 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 2200 (in Chinese)[陈竑然, 秦四清, 薛雷, 杨百存, 张珂, 吴晓娲 2017 地球物理学进展 32 2200]
[26]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Zhang K 2018 Chinese J. Geophys. 61 616 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 张珂 2018 地球 61 616]
[27]	Lei X L, Masuda K, Nishizawa O, Jouniaux L, Liu L, Ma W, Satoh T, Kusunose K 2004 J. Struct. Geol. 26 247
[28]	Zhao X G, Wang J, Ma L K, Su R, Cai M, Wang G B 2013 Proceedings of the 3rd ISRM SINOROCK Symposium. London: CRC Press/Balkema, p75
[29]	Sun J 1999 Rheology of Rock and Soil Materials and its Engineering Application 1 (Beijing: China Architecture and Building Press) p434 (in Chinese)[孙钧 1999岩土材料流变及其工程应用 1 (北京: 中国建筑工业出版社) 第434页]
[30]	Hudson J A, Crouch S L, Fairhurst C 1972 Eng. Geol. 6 155
[31]	Meng X Y, Li S H, Zhang J F 2004 Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng. 23 1760 (in Chinese)[孟祥跃, 李世海, 张均锋 2004 岩石力学与工程学报 23 1760]
[32]	Qin S Q, Li P, Yang B C, Xue L, Wu X W 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 574 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 李培, 杨百存, 薛雷, 吴晓娲 2016 地球物理学进展 31 574]
[33]	Qin S Q, Yang B C, Wu X W, Xue L, Li P 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 115 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 吴晓娲, 薛雷, 李培 2016 地球物理学进展 31 115]
[34]	Qin S Q, Yang B C, Xue L, Li P, Wu X W 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 559 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 薛雷, 李培, 吴晓娲 2016 地球物理学进展 31 559]
[35]	Qin S Q, Li P, Xue L, Li G L, Wang M M 2014 Prog. Geophys. 29 1526 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 李培, 薛雷, 李国梁, 王苗苗 2014 球物理学进展 29 1526]
[36]	Li P, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Yang B C, Zhang K 2016 Prog. Geophys. 31 1450 (in Chinese)[李培, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 杨百存, 张珂 2016 地球物理学进展 31 1450]
[37]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 1067 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学进展 32 1067]
[38]	Qin S Q, Yang B C, Xue L, Li P, Wu X W 2015 Prog. Geophys. 30 2013 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 杨百存, 薛雷, 李培, 吴晓娲 2015 地球物理学进展 30 2013]
[39]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Prog. Geophys. 32 1953 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球物理学进展 32 1953]
[40]	Xue L, Qin S Q, Li P, Li G L, Oyediran I A, Pan X H 2014 Eng. Geol. 182 79
[41]	Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P 2010 Chin. J. Rock Mech. Eng. 29 873 (in Chinese)[秦四清, 王媛媛, 马平 2010 岩石力学与工程学报 29 873]
[42]	Yang B C, Qin S Q, Xue L, Chen H R, Wu X W, Zhang K 2017 Chinese J. Geophys. 60 1746 (in Chinese)[杨百存, 秦四清, 薛雷, 陈竑然, 吴晓娲, 张珂 2017 地球 60 1746]
[43]	Song Z P 2011 Global Earthquake Catalog 1 (Beijing: Seismological Press) pp1-450 (in Chinese)[宋治平 2011 全球地震目录 1 (北京: 地震出版社) 第1450页]

[1]	Shi Yan, Zhang Tian-Hui. Control of self-organization: From equilibrium to non-equilibrium. Acta Physica Sinica, 2020, 69(14): 140503. doi: 10.7498/aps.69.20200161
[2]	Sun Bao-An, Wang Li-Feng, Shao Jian-Hua. Self-organized critical behavior in plastic flow of amorphous solids. Acta Physica Sinica, 2017, 66(17): 178103. doi: 10.7498/aps.66.178103
[3]	Yu Xu-Tao, Xu Jin, Zhang Zai-Chen. Routing protocol for wireless ad hoc quantum communication network based on quantum teleportation. Acta Physica Sinica, 2012, 61(22): 220303. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.220303
[4]	Jia Quan-Jie, Chen Yu, Tian Xue-Yan, Yao Jiang-Feng, Zhao Su-Ling, Gong Wei, Fan Xing, Xu Zheng, Zhang Fu-Jun. Study of crystalline structure change of annealing-induced self-organization in polymer field-effect transistors. Acta Physica Sinica, 2011, 60(5): 057201. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.057201
[5]	Bai Ke-Zhao, Chen Rui-Xiong, Liu Mu-Ren, Kong Ling-Jiang, Zheng Rong-Sen. Study of the grade roundabout crossing. Acta Physica Sinica, 2009, 58(7): 4500-4505. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.4500
[6]	Zhang Wen-Zhu, Yuan Jian, Yu Zhe, Xu Zan-Xin, Shan Xiu-Ming. Study of the global behavior of wireless sensor networks based on cellular automata. Acta Physica Sinica, 2008, 57(11): 6896-6900. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.6896
[7]	Huang Li-Qing, Pan Hua-Qiang, Wang Jun, Tong Hui-Min, Zhu Ke, Ren Guan-Xu, Wang Yong-Chang. Spontaneous formation of ordered Sn nanodot array on porous anodic alumina membrane. Acta Physica Sinica, 2007, 56(11): 6712-6716. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.6712
[8]	Zhang Lin, Kong Hong-Yan, Yang Guo-Jian. Self-organization of light driven atoms induced by recoil effect in a harmonic trap. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(10): 5122-5128. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.5122
[9]	Liu Yu-Min, Yu Zhong-Yuan, Yang Hong-Bo, Huang Yong-Zhen. Effect of the longitudinal and transverse stacking period of InAs/GaAs quantum dots on the distribution of strain field. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(10): 5023-5029. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.5023
[10]	Liu Lei, Xu Sheng-Hua, Liu Jie, Duan Li, Sun Zhi-Wei, Liu Ren-Xiao, Dong Peng. Crystallization of charged colloidal particles: an experimental study. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(11): 6168-6174. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.6168
[11]	Zhou Hai-Ping, Cai Shao-Hong, Wang Chun-Xiang. Self-organized criticality in one-dimensional sandpile model with avalanche probability included. Acta Physica Sinica, 2006, 55(7): 3355-3359. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.3355
[12]	Dong Qing-Rui, Niu Zhi-Chuan. Excitonic energy of vertically stacked self-assmbled InAs quantum dots. Acta Physica Sinica, 2005, 54(4): 1794-1798. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.1794
[13]	Zhang Yong-Ju, Yu Sen-Jiang. Self-organization of ordered surface patterns in nearly free sustained Al films. Acta Physica Sinica, 2005, 54(10): 4867-4873. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.4867
[14]	He Ya-Feng, Dong Li-Fang, Liu Fu-Cheng, Fan Wei-Li. Localized hexagonal structure in dielectric barrier discharge. Acta Physica Sinica, 2005, 54(9): 4236-4239. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.4236
[15]	Li Liang-Xin, Hu Yong-Hua. Intersubband and intraband transitions of self-assembled quantum wires for the infrared detectors. Acta Physica Sinica, 2005, 54(2): 848-856. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.848
[16]	Gong Long-Yan, Tong Pei-Qing. Dynamical phase transition and self-organized critical phenomena in the two-dim ensional gas lattice model. Acta Physica Sinica, 2003, 52(11): 2757-2761. doi: 10.7498/aps.52.2757
[17]	Quan Hong-Jun, Wang Bing-Hong, Yang Wei-Song, Wang Wei-Ning, Luo Xiao-Shu. The self-organized segregation effect of evolutionary minority game with imitation. Acta Physica Sinica, 2002, 51(12): 2667-2670. doi: 10.7498/aps.51.2667
[18]	HE SHENG-TAI, YAO JIAN-NIAN, WANG YU-PING, JIANG PENG, SHI DONG-XIA, XIE SI-SHEN, PANG SHI-JIN, GAO HONG-JUN. SELF-ASSEMBLED TWO-DIMENSIONAL ORDERED ARRAYOF SILVER NANOPARTICLES. Acta Physica Sinica, 2001, 50(4): 765-768. doi: 10.7498/aps.50.765
[19]	LV ZHEN-DONG, LI QING, XU JI-ZONG, ZHENG BAO-ZHEN, XU ZHONG-YING, GE WEI-KUN. EXCITON DYNAMICS IN SELF-ORGANIZED InAs/GaAs QUANTUM DOTS. Acta Physica Sinica, 1999, 48(4): 744-750. doi: 10.7498/aps.48.744
[20]	WANG ZHI-MING, FENG SONG-LIN, Lv ZHEN-DONG, YANG XIAO-PING, CHEN ZONG-GUI, SONG CHUN-YING, XU ZHONG-YING, ZHENG HOU-ZHI, WANG FENG-LIAN, HAN PAI-DE, DUAN XIAO-FENG. STUDY OF VERTICALLY ALIGNING GROWTH OF SELF-ASSEMBLED InAs/GaAs QUANTUM DOTS. Acta Physica Sinica, 1998, 47(1): 89-93. doi: 10.7498/aps.47.89

Catalog

Vol. 67, Issue 20 - 2018-10-20

Metrics

Abstract views: 6867
PDF Downloads: 124
Cited By: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

Search

Article

留言板