A study on precipitation trend and fluctuation mechanism in northwestern China over the past 60 years

Dai Xin-Gang; Wang Ping; Zhang Kai-Jing

doi:10.7498/aps.62.129201

Abstract

This paper focuses on the mechanism of the trend and oscillation in precipitation records in northwestern China over the past 60 years. The results from regression and orthogonal wavelet decomposition show a clearly ascending in annual precipitation since 2000, which is contributed mostly by significant increase in autumn and winter precipitations, while almost no trend can be identified in spring and summer time, which shows a weak descending in non-linear form. This may be in connection with different warming rates in seasons. There is a significant anti-correlation between the precipitation and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on the inter-annual scale. About 80% of their variances concentrate on inter-annual and multi-decadal scales. The multi-decadal components of NAO index have a phase leading about 10 years to corresponding precipitation, about 4-5 years leg for AMO. Hence, NAO index can be used as an indicator for inter-decadal change of the precipitation. Other results from combination-difference analysis show that the NAO in extreme negative phase could lead to the precipitation increase in central Asia and northwestern China, owing to increase in eastward water-vapor transport from south Europe to Northwestern China, which causes an increase in column water vapor content in the above areas, and meanwhile the transient eddy activity becomes intensified in the areas or north with a further south route moving from Europe, Central Asia throughout northwestern China. On the contrary, a dry climate might appear in the areas when meet extreme positive phase of NAO. Thus, NAO's oscillation is one of the most important mechanisms for inter-annual change in precipitation of northwestern China.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
3.
Qingdao Meteorological Agency, Qingdao 266003, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40775048, 41075058), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430201), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201106016).

References

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[34]	Daubechies I 1988 Pure Appl. Math. 41 909
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[36]	Bretherton C S, Widmann M, Dymnikov V P , Wallace J M, Bladé I 1999 J. Climate 12 1990
[37]	Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, Giorgi F 2012 Chin. Sci. Bull. 57 374 (in Chinese) [高学杰, 石英, 张冬峰, Giorgi F 2012 科学通报 57 374]
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[40]	Peixoto J P, Oort A H (Translated by Wu G X et al) 1995 Physics of Climate (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p12 (in Chinese) [Peixoto J P, Oort A H著 (吴国雄等译) 1995 气候物理学 (北京: 气象出版社) 第12页]

Cited By

[1]	Tao S, Chen L X 1987 Monsoon Meteorology (New York: Oxford University Press) pp60-92
[2]	Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang K J 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 119201
[3]	Zhang K J, Dai X G, Wang P 2011 Chin. J. Geophy. Res. 54 870
[4]	Dai X G, Li W J, Ma Z G, Wang P 2007 Prog. Natur. Sci. 17 42
[5]	Chen F H, Huang X Z, Yang M L 2006 Quart. Sci. 26 881 (in Chinese) [陈发虎, 黄小忠, 杨美临 2006 第四纪研究 26 881]
[6]	Han J P, Wang H J 2007 Chin. J. Geophys. Res. 50 1666 (in Chinese) [韩晋平, 王会军 2007 地球 50 1666]
[7]	Dai X G, Wang P, Zhang P Q, Chou J F 2003 Prog. Natur. Sci. 14 598
[8]	Zhang L B, Feng G L, Guo L N, Shi N 2006 J. Nanjing Institute Meteor 29 1 (in Chinese) [张立波, 封国林, 郭利娜, 施能 2006 南京气象学院学报 29 1]
[9]	Wang H J 2001 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 18 376
[10]	Dai X G, Ren Y Y, Chen H W 2007 Acta Meteor Sin. 65 1002 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 任宜勇, 陈洪武 2007 气象学报 65 1002]
[11]	Liu H W, Ding Y H 2011 J. Appl. Meteor. 22 129 (in Chinese) [刘海文, 丁一汇 2011 应用气象学报 22 129]
[12]	Ma Z G 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 1199 (in Chinese) [马柱国 2007 科学通报 52 1199]
[13]	Ye D Z, Fu C B, Ji J J, Dong W J, Lü J H, Wen G, Yan X D 2001 Adv. Geos. 16 453 (in Chinese) [叶笃正, 符淙斌, 季劲钧, 董文杰, 吕建华, 温刚, 延晓冬 2001 地球科学进展 16 453]
[14]	Yang L M, Zhang Q Y 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 32 1187 (in Chinese) [杨莲梅, 张庆云 2008 大气科学 32 1187]
[15]	Dai X G, Zhang K J 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 199201 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 张凯静 2012 61 199201]
[16]	Ambaum M H P, Hoskins B J, Stephenson D B 2001 J. Clim. 14 3495
[17]	Wallace J M 2000 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 126 791
[18]	Li C Y, Gu W 2010 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 34 865 (in Chinese) [李崇银顾薇 2010大气科学 34 865]
[19]	Ji M X, Huang J P, Wang S W, Wang X, Zheng Z H, Ge J M 2008 Plateau Meteor 27 415 (in Chinese) [季明霞, 黄建平, 王绍武, 王鑫, 郑志海, 葛觐铭 2008 高原气象 27 415]
[20]	Luo D, Gong T, Diao Y 2007 J. Atmos. Sci. 64 3
[21]	Luo D H, Diao Y, Feldstein S B 2010 J. Atmos. Sci. 68 577
[22]	Amir S, Huang J P, Higuchi K 2001 Int. J. Clim. 21 355
[23]	Sun J Q, Wang H J 2012 J. Geophys. Res. 117 D08110
[24]	Fu C B, Zeng Z M 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull. 50 1512 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 曾昭美 2005 科学通报 50 1512]
[25]	Lucht W, Prentice I C, Myneni R B, Sitch S, Friedlingstein P, Cramer W, Bousquet P, Buermann W, Smith B 2002 Science 296 1687
[26]	Stroeve J, Holland M M, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M 2007 Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 doi: 10.1029/2007GL0297
[27]	Zhang K J, Dai X G, Wang P 2011 Chin. J. Geophys. 54 2477 (in Chinese) [张凯静, 戴新刚, 汪萍 2011 地球 54 2477]
[28]	Li J, Wang J 2003 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 20 661
[29]	Enfield D B, Mestas-Nunez A M, Trimble P J 2001 Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 2077
[30]	Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V, Rowell D P, Kent E C, Kaplan A 2003 J. Geophys. Res. 108 4407
[31]	Barnett T P, Pierce D W, Latif M, Dommenget D, Saravanan R 1999 Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 615
[32]	Uppala S M, Kållberg P W, Simmons A J, Andrae U, Bechtold V D C, Fiorino M, Gibson J K, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly G A, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan P, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda M A, Beljaars A C M, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, HAlm E, Hoskins B J, Isaksen L, Janssen P A E M, McNally A P, Mahfouf J F, Jenne R, Morcrette J J, Rayner N A, Saunders R W, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth K E, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J 2005 J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131 2961
[33]	Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B 2013 Theor. Appl. Climatology doi 10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x
[34]	Daubechies I 1988 Pure Appl. Math. 41 909
[35]	Fan K, Wang H J 2009 Weather and Forecasting 24 974
[36]	Bretherton C S, Widmann M, Dymnikov V P , Wallace J M, Bladé I 1999 J. Climate 12 1990
[37]	Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, Giorgi F 2012 Chin. Sci. Bull. 57 374 (in Chinese) [高学杰, 石英, 张冬峰, Giorgi F 2012 科学通报 57 374]
[38]	Dong B, Sutton R T, Woollings T 2011 Clim. Dyn. 37 1621
[39]	Zuo J Q, Li W J, Ren H L, Chen L J 2012 Chin. J. Geophys. 55 384 (in Chinese) [左金清, 李维京, 任宏利, 陈丽娟 2012地球 55 384]
[40]	Peixoto J P, Oort A H (Translated by Wu G X et al) 1995 Physics of Climate (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p12 (in Chinese) [Peixoto J P, Oort A H著 (吴国雄等译) 1995 气候物理学 (北京: 气象出版社) 第12页]

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Vol. 62, Issue 12 - 2013-06-20

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