中国冬季区域性极端低温事件分类及其与气候指数极端性的联系

王晓娟; 沈柏竹; 龚志强; 封国林

doi:10.7498/aps.62.229201

摘要

基于区域性极端低温事件客观识别技术, 对1951–2010年中国冬季的区域性极端低温事件进行客观识别. 根据事件的空间分布特征, 将综合指数前60位的事件划分为全国型、东部型、东北-华北型、华北-华南型、北方型和西北-华南型六类; 通过分析不同区域类型低温事件形成的环流背景场验证了分类的有效性. 在此基础上, 以1971年1月21日开始的典型事件为例, 分析了事件对应的海温场、高度场和风场的异常, 确定与区域性极端低温事件联系较密切的可能气候因子, 进而分析不同类型事件与各气候指数异常的对应关系. 总体而言, 赤道中东太平洋海温指数异常偏小、北太平洋涛动指数异常偏小、北极涛动指数异常偏小和冬季风异常偏强时, 发生区域性极端低温事件的概率较高; 且这四种指数的历年冬季平均值达到15%(或85%)极端阈值的年份中, 发生区域性极端低温事件的百分率分别达到80.0%, 77.8%, 60.0%和62.5%, 从而为区域性极端低温事件的诊断和预测研究等提供了一定的参考.

关键词:

Abstract

We identify China regional low temperature extreme events (RELTEs) in winter during the periods from 1951 to 2010 using objective identification technique for regional low temperature extreme events (OITRELTEs). The 559 RELTEs are identified and classified into 6 types, i.e., nationwide style, east style, northeast-north China style, north-south China style, south style, and northwest-south China style, according to the spatial distribution of these events. The circulation backgrounds of different styles of low temperature events are also analyzed. In addition, taking the classical event that began from January 21st in 1971 for example, anomaly characteristics of sea surface temperature, geopotential height and winds vectors are investigated specifically. Based on these analyses, the corresponding relationships between different types of events and anomalies of climatic indices are further studied, and the relations between mainly influencing index and event are obtained for different types of events. On the whole, when the NINO3.4, the Pacific decadal oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation are small and the winter wind index is strong, the probability with which the RELTE happens is high; in the years in which the winter average values of the four indices reach 15% of extreme threshold, the percentages of occurrence of RELTE reach up to 80.0%, 77.8%, 60.0% and 62.5%, respectively. Therefore, certain signals can be offered for diagnosing and predicting the RELTE from the index anomalies.

Keywords:

regional low temperature extreme events /
spatial distribution /
climatic index /
extreme

作者及机构信息

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;

2.
常熟理工学院物理与电子工程学院, 常熟 215500;

3.
国家气候中心监测诊断室, 北京 100081;

4.
中国气象局国家气候中心开放实验室, 北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号: 41305075)、国家重点基础研究计划 (批准号: 2012CB955203, 2012CB955902)和公益性行业专项(批准号: GYHY201106016)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Department of Atmospheric and Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

2.
College of Physics and Electronic Project, Changshu Institute of Technology, Changshu 215500, China;

3.
Laboratory for Climate Monitoring and Diagnose, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;

4.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305075), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203, 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research Projects for Public Interest, China (Grant No. GYHY201106016).

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[22]	Shi N 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 844
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施引文献

[1]	Zhao Z C, Wang S W, Xu Y, Ren G Y, Luo Y, Gao X J 2005 Climat. Environ. Res. 10 808 (in Chinese) [赵宗慈, 王绍武, 徐影, 任国玉, 罗勇, 高学杰 2005 气候与环境研究 10 808]
[2]	Tang G L, Ding Y H, Wang S W, Ren G Y, Liu H B, Zhang L 2009 Adv. Climate Change Res. 5 1673 (in Chinese) [唐国利, 丁一汇, 王绍武, 任国玉, 刘洪滨, 张莉 2009 气候变化研究进展 5 1673]
[3]	Ren G Y, Guo J, Xu M Z, Chu Z Y, Zhang L, Zou X K, Li Q X, Liu X N 2005 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 63 942 (in Chinese) [任国玉, 郭军, 徐铭志, 初子莹, 张莉, 邹旭凯, 李庆祥, 刘小宁 2005 气象学报 63 942]
[4]	Ding Y H, Wang Z Y, Song Y F, Zhang J 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 808 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 王遵娅, 宋亚芳, 张锦 2008 气象学报 66 808]
[5]	Wang D H, Liu C J, Liu Y, Wei F Y, Zhao N, Jiang Z N, Li Y, Chen J Y, Wang Y F, Shi X H, Xu X D 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 405 (in Chinese) [王东海, 柳崇健, 刘英, 魏凤英, 赵南, 姜智娜, 李英, 陈菊英, 王亚非, 施晓晖, 徐祥德 2008 气象学报 66 405]
[6]	Shen B Z, Liu S, Lian Y, Feng G L, Li S F, Gong Z Q 2011Acta Meteorol. Sin. 69 320 (in Chinese) [沈柏竹, 刘实, 廉毅, 封国林, 李尚锋, 龚志强 2011 气象学报 69 320]
[7]	Wang X J, Shen B Z, Gong Z Q, Feng G 2013 Acta Meteorol. Sin. (in Chinese) [王晓娟, 沈柏竹, 龚志强, 封国林 2013 气象学报] (in press)
[8]	Feng G L, Hou W, Zhi R, Gong Z Q 2011 Research on Detecting, Diagnosing and Predictability of Extreme Climate Events (Beijing: Science Press) p5 (in Chinese) [封国林, 侯威, 支蓉, 龚志强 2011 极端气候事件的检测、诊断和可预测性研究 (北京: 科学出版社) 第5页]
[9]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 封国林 2009 58 4342]
[10]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[11]	Gong Z Q, Zou M W, Gao X Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 3947 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 邹明玮, 高新全, 董文杰 2005 54 3947]
[12]	Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L, Zhang Q 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 25 142
[13]	Hou W, Zhang D Q, Qian Z H, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 109203 (in Chinese) [侯威, 章大全, 钱忠华, 封国林 2011 60 109203]
[14]	Peng J B, Bueh C 2011 Atmosph. Ocean. Sci. Lett. 4 281
[15]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H 2011 Adv. Atmosph. Sci. 28 338
[16]	Ren F M, Cui D L, Gong Z Q 2012 J. Climate 25 7015
[17]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Cui D L, Wang Y J, Ren F M, Feng G L, Zhang Q, Zou X K, Wang X L 2012 J. Appl. Meteorol. 23 195 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 崔冬林, 王艳姣, 任福民, 封国林, 张强, 邹旭凯, 王小玲 2012 应用气象学报 23 195]
[18]	Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Ren F M, Feng G L 2012 Adv. Climate Change Res. 8 8 (in Chinese) [王晓娟, 龚志强, 任福民, 封国林 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 8]
[19]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H 2012 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 36 1269 (in Chinese) [张宗婕, 钱维宏 2012 大气科学 36 1269]
[20]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Feng G L, Ren F M 2013 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 37 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 封国林, 任福民 2013 大气科学 37] (in press)
[21]	Dai X G, Fu Z B, Wang P 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 850
[22]	Shi N 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 844
[23]	Peng J B, Bueh C 2011 Atmosph. Ocean. Sci. Lett. 4 281
[24]	Wang Q G, Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2853 (in Chinese) [王启光, 支蓉, 龚志强, 封国林 2009 58 2853]
[25]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4342 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 支蓉, 封国林 2009 58 4342]
[26]	Kistler R, Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M 2001 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 82 247
[27]	Smith T M, Reynolds R W 2003 J. Climate 16 1495
[28]	Liu Z X, Lian Y, Shen B Z, Gao Z T, Tang X L 2003 J. Appl. Meteorol. 14 553 (in Chinese) [刘宗秀, 廉毅, 沈柏竹, 高枞亭, 唐晓玲 2003 应用气象学报 14 553]
[29]	Lian Y, Shen B Z, Gao Z T 2004 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 2 781 (in Chinese) [廉毅, 沈柏竹, 高枞亭 2004 气象学报 2 781]
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[31]	Mu M Q, Li C Y 1999 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 23 276 (in Chinese) [穆明权, 李崇银 1999 大气科学 23 276]
[32]	He X C, Li Q P, Ding Y H, He J H 2007 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 65 18 (in Chinese) [何溪澄, 李巧萍, 丁一汇, 何金海 2007 气象学报 65 18]
[33]	Chen W 2002 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 26 595 (in Chinese) [陈文 2002 大气科学 26 595]
[34]	Wang X J, Feng A X, Zhi R, Feng G L 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 029201
[35]	Shen B Z, Lin Z D, Lu R Y 2011 Sci. China: Earth Sci. 54 1095
[36]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2005 Chin. Phys. 14 21

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