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近年来, 临界慢化现象在揭示复杂动力系统是否趋向于临界性突变方面展示了重要潜力. 在此基于临界慢化的理念, 对含有不同噪声的中国一级气象地理区划的11大区域的气温观测资料进行处理, 研究气候突变的前兆信号. 首先利用Mann-Kendall (M-K)方法准确的找出各个区域的突变位置, 然后计算了表征临界慢化现象的自相关系数以此寻找气候突变前兆信号, 并研究了不同噪声对气候突变前兆信号的影响. 结果表明, 针对不同的信噪比、不同区域的气温资料在气候突变发生前5–10年均出现了自 相关系数增大的临界慢化现象, 临界慢化现象可能是气候突变发生前的一个前兆信号; 噪声对气候突变前兆信号的检测结果影响较小, 论证了临界慢化现象检测突变前兆信号的可靠性, 为该方法在实际观测资料中的应用提供了实验基础.In recent years, critical slowing down phenomenon has shown great potentials in disclosing whether a complex dynamic tends toward critical cataclysm. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the observed data of temperature in different regions in China which have different noises are processed in this article to study the precursory signal of abrupt climate change. First, Mann-Kendall(M-K)method is used to find the locations of the abrupt climate change in different regions, then the autocorrelation coefficient which can characterize critical slowing down is calculated; the appearance-time moments of early warning signals of abrupt climate change under the influence of different noises are also stadied. The results show that for different signal-to-noise ratios, the critical slowing down phenomenon has appeared in the data 5-10 years before the abrupt climate change took place, which indicateds that critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change and the noise has less influence on the test results for early warning signals of abrupt climate change. Accordingly, it demonstrates the reliability of critical slowing down phenomenon to test the precursory signals of abrupt climate change, which provideds an experimental basis for the wide applications of the present method in real observation data.
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Keywords:
- abrupt climate change /
- critical slowing down /
- M-K method /
- precursory signals
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[6] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational data (Beijing: the weather publishing company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第5–8页]
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[16] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 3180]
[17] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 56 3619］
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[19] Dong W J, Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Li J P 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [董文杰, 封国林, 龚志强, 李建平 2005 54 5494]
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[22] He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 58 2862]
[23] He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 59 8264]
[24] He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 60 029203]
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[26] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 15 601
[27] Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[28] Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecology Letters 9 311
[29] Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecology Letters 11 450
[30] Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象 北京: 科学出版社]
[31] Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chinese J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球 54 1817]
[32] Wu H, Hou W, Yan P C, Feng G L 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 612 09202 (in Chinese) [吴浩, 侯威, 颜鹏程, 封国林 2012 612 209202]
[33] Wu H, Hou W, Yan P C Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese) [吴浩, 侯威, 颜鹏程 2013 ] (已接收)
[34] Yan P C, Hou W, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 189202 (in Chinese) [颜鹏程, 侯威, 胡经国 2012 61 189202]
[35] China Meteorological Administration forecast Disaster Reduction Division, National Meteorological Center 2006 China Meteorological geographical divisions Manual (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) 12-16 (in Chinese) [中国气象局预测减灾司, 中国气象局国家气象中心 2006 中国气象地理区划手册 (北京: 气象出版社) 第12–16页]
[36] Jones P D, Groisman P Y, Coughlan M, Plummer N, Wang W C, Karl T R 1990 Nature 347 169
[37] Lenton T M 2011 Nature climate change 2 201
[38] Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[39] Dakos V, Scheffer M, Van Nes E H, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H 2008 P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[40] Lenton T M, Livina V N,Dakos V, Van Nes E H, Scheffer M 2012 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 370 1185
[41] Zhao X C, Wu H B, He L 2008 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 31 819 (in Chinese) [赵晓川, 吴洪宝, 何浪 2008 南京气象学院学报 31 819]
[42] Mann H B 1945 Econometrika 13 245
[43] Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) 62 76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 62 76]
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[1] Fu C B, Wang Q 1992 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 16 482 (in Chinese) [符淙斌, 王强 1992 大气科学 16 482]
[2] Alley R B, Marotzke J, Nordhaus W D, Overpeck J T, Peteet D M, Pielke R A, Pierrehumbert R T, Rhines P B, Stocker T F, Talley L D, Wallace J M 2005 Science 299 5615
[3] Fu C B 1994 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 18 373 (in Chinese) [符淙斌 1994 大气科学 18 373]
[4] Wang S W, Ye J L 1995 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 19 545 (in Chinese) [王邵武, 叶瑾琳 1995 大气科学 19 545]
[5] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 892 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 支蓉 2008 气象学报 66 892]
[6] Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Methods on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Obserbational data (Beijing: the weather publishing company) p5-8 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰, 龚志强, 侯威, 万仕全, 支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第5–8页]
[7] Chou J F 1997 Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences 5 325 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1997 中国科学院院刊 5 325]
[8] Yang P C, Bian J C, Wang G L, Zhou X J 2003 Chinese Science Bulletin 48 1470 (in Chinese) [杨培才, 卞建春, 王革丽, 周秀骥 2003 科学通报 48 1470]
[9] Mu M, Duan W S 2005 Chinese Science Bulletin 24 2695 (in Chinese) [穆穆, 段晚锁 2005 科学通报 24 2695]
[10] Wu H, Hou W, Qian Z H, Hu J G 2012Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149205 (in Chinese) [吴浩, 侯威, 钱忠华, 胡经国 2012 61 149205]
[11] Thompson R 1992 Structural stability and Morphogenesis (Sichuan: Sichuan Education Press) p54-59 (in Chinese) [雷内·托姆 1992 结构稳定性与形态发生学 (四川: 四川教育出版社) 第54–59页]
[12] Jin H M, He W P, Hou W, Zhang D Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 069201 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 侯威, 章大全 2012 61 069201]
[13] Jin H M, He W P, Zhang W, Feng A X, Hou W 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 129202 (in Chinese) [金红梅, 何文平, 张文, 冯爱霞, 侯威 2012 61 129202]
[14] Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林, 龚志强, 董文杰 2005 54 5494]
[15] Wan S Q, Feng G L, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5487 (in Chinese) [万仕全, 封国林, 董文杰 2005 54 5487]
[16] Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 3180 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 3180]
[17] Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 56 3619］
[18] Zhang L, Zhang D Q, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 5896 (in Chinese) [张璐, 章大全, 封国林 2010 59 5896]
[19] Dong W J, Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Li J P 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [董文杰, 封国林, 龚志强, 李建平 2005 54 5494]
[20] Wang Q G, Zhang Z P 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 1976 (in Chinese) [王启光, 张增平 2008 57 1976]
[21] Hou W, Zhi R, Yang P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2097 (in Chinese) [侯威, 支蓉, 杨萍 2009 58 2097]
[22] He W P, Wu Q, Zhang W, Wang Q G, Zhang Y 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 2862 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 张文, 王启光, 张勇 2009 58 2862]
[23] He W P, Deng B S, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng H Y 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 8264 (in Chinese) [何文平, 邓北胜, 吴琼, 张文, 成海英 2010 59 8264]
[24] He W P, Wu Q, Cheng H Y, Zhang W 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029203 (in Chinese) [何文平, 吴琼, 成海英, 张文 2011 60 029203]
[25] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, He T, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2012 Int. J. Climatol. 32 1604
[26] He W P, Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2008 Nonlinear Proc. Geoph. 15 601
[27] Scheffer M, Bascompte J, William A 2009 Nature 461 53
[28] Carpenter S R, Brook W A 2006 Ecology Letters 9 311
[29] Guttal V, Jayaprakash C 2008 Ecology Letters 11 450
[30] Yu L, Hao B L 1984 Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Beijing: Science press) (in Chinese) [于渌, 郝柏林 1984 相变和临界现象 北京: 科学出版社]
[31] Yan R, Jiang C S, Zhang L P 2011 Chinese J. Geophys. 54 1817 (in Chinese) [晏锐, 蒋长胜, 张浪平 2011 地球 54 1817]
[32] Wu H, Hou W, Yan P C, Feng G L 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 612 09202 (in Chinese) [吴浩, 侯威, 颜鹏程, 封国林 2012 612 209202]
[33] Wu H, Hou W, Yan P C Acta Phys. Sin. (in Chinese) [吴浩, 侯威, 颜鹏程 2013 ] (已接收)
[34] Yan P C, Hou W, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 189202 (in Chinese) [颜鹏程, 侯威, 胡经国 2012 61 189202]
[35] China Meteorological Administration forecast Disaster Reduction Division, National Meteorological Center 2006 China Meteorological geographical divisions Manual (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) 12-16 (in Chinese) [中国气象局预测减灾司, 中国气象局国家气象中心 2006 中国气象地理区划手册 (北京: 气象出版社) 第12–16页]
[36] Jones P D, Groisman P Y, Coughlan M, Plummer N, Wang W C, Karl T R 1990 Nature 347 169
[37] Lenton T M 2011 Nature climate change 2 201
[38] Bence J R 1995 Ecology 76 628
[39] Dakos V, Scheffer M, Van Nes E H, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H 2008 P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105 14308
[40] Lenton T M, Livina V N,Dakos V, Van Nes E H, Scheffer M 2012 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 370 1185
[41] Zhao X C, Wu H B, He L 2008 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 31 819 (in Chinese) [赵晓川, 吴洪宝, 何浪 2008 南京气象学院学报 31 819]
[42] Mann H B 1945 Econometrika 13 245
[43] Wei F Y 1999 Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) 62 76 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 1999 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 62 76]
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