基于随机重排去趋势波动分析的极端低温事件研究及其综合指标的建立

侯威; 章大全; 钱忠华; 封国林

doi:10.7498/aps.60.109203

摘要

将去趋势波动分析法(detrended fluctuation analysis,DFA)和替代数据法相结合,同时引入启发式分割算法和卡方检验,提出了一种确定极端气候事件阈值的新方法,称为随机重排去趋势波动分析(stochastic re-sort detrended fluctuation analysis, S-DFA)方法. 同百分位阈值方法相比,S-DFA方法明确指出了极端事件和非极端事件之间的临界值. 基于中国气象局公布的中国165个国际交换站19612006年无缺测的逐日日平均气温资料,利用随机重排去趋势波动分析(S-DFA)方法计算并分析了中国极端低温事件阈值的空间分布特征,并对S-DFA方法在实际资料中的应用进行了检验. 从可预报性的角度给出了极端低温事件综合指标的定义. 这一综合指标将极端低温事件的发生频次和强度综合起来,且兼顾了不同地区各自特有的区域气候背景,进一步说明了综合指标定义的合理性. 基于极端低温事件综合指标的空间分布规律,将中国19612006年间极端低温事件分为四个不同等级的地区. 极端低温综合指标整体表现出下降趋势,在20世纪80年代初期之前综合指标的变化具有两个明显的准10年周期,而在这之后则一直处于下降趋势且大大低于平均值,直到90年代中期以后才再次上升至平均值附近.

关键词:

Abstract

By combining the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method with surrogate data method, and using the heuristic segmentation algorithm as well as Chi-Square statistics, we develop a new method to determine the threshold of extreme events, e.g. stochastically re-sorting detrended fluctuation analysis(S-DFA) method. By using the S-DFA method, we obtain the thresholds of extremely low temperature events from 1961 to 2006 in China and analyze their spatiao temporal characteristics of distribution. We also validate the effectiveness of the S-DFA method through extreme event detection using the temperature series. By defining the composite index of extremely low temperature events from the angle of predictability, this composite index is integrated with the information about the frequency and the strength of the extremely low temperature events, with considering the characteristic of regional climate system. Based on the composite index, we divide the extremely low temperature events during 19612006 in China into four different zones according to their own rank. The composite index of extremely low temperature tends to be katabatic on the whole, Before the the early 80's in the 20th century, the composite index changed according to two distinct 10-year quasi-periods, and after that the composite index was in a downward trend and was well below the average. Until after the mid-90's in the 20th century, it rose to about average value once again.

Keywords:

stochastic re-sort detrended fluctuation analysis /
extreme event /
threshold /
composite index

作者及机构信息

1.
国家气候中心,北京 100081;

2.
中国科学院大气物理研究所,东亚区域气候环境重点实验室,北京 100029;

3.
兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000;

4.
扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,扬州 225002

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:41005043,40905034)、国家科技支撑计划(批准号:2007BAC29B01,2009BAC51B04)和全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(批准号: 2010CB950504)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;

2.
Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperature East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;

3.
College of Atmospheric and Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

4.
College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China

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[72]	Ju J H, Ren J Z, Lv J M 2004 Plateau Meteorology 23 429 (in Chinese)[琚建华、任菊章、吕俊梅 2004 高原气象 23 429]
[73]
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施引文献

[1]	Xiong K G, Yang J, Wang S Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2009 Acta Phys.Sin. 58 2843 (in Chinese) [熊开国、杨杰、万仕全、封国林、胡经国 2009 58 2843 ]
[2]
[3]	Feng G L, Dong WJ, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear Theories and Metho-ds on Spatial-Temporal Distribution of the Observational Data (Beijing: MetrologicalPress) p84 (in Chinese) [封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯威、万仕全、支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法 (北京: 气象出版社)]
[4]
[5]	Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全、杨杰、王启光、封国林 2009 58 4354]
[6]	Easterling D R, Evans J L, Groisman P Y 2006 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81 417
[7]
[8]
[9]	Render S, Petersen M R 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[10]	Zhai P M,Pan X H 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58(supplement) 1(in Chinese) [翟盘茂、潘晓华 2003 地理学报 58(增刊) 1]
[11]
[12]
[13]	Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全、张璐、杨杰、封国林 2010 59 655]
[14]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰、侯威、封国林 2010 59 664]
[15]
[16]	Wan S Q, Gu C H, Kang J P 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 676 (in Chinese) [万仕全、顾承华、康建鹏 2010 59 676]
[17]
[18]
[19]	Zhang L, Zhang D Q, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 5896 (in Chinese)[张璐、章大全、封国林 2010 59 5896]
[20]
[21]	Cai M, Ding Y G, Jiang Z H 2007 Plateau Meteorology 26 309 (in Chinese) [蔡敏、丁裕国、江志红 2007 高原气象 26 309]
[22]	Wang Z F, Qian Y F, Lin H J 2008 Plateau Meteorology 27 113 (in Chinese) [王志福、钱永甫、林惠娟 2008 高原气象 27 113]
[23]
[24]	Yang J H, Jiang Z H 2008 Plateau Meteorology 27 331 (in Chinese) [杨金虎、江志红 2008 高原气象 27 331]
[25]
[26]
[27]	Liu L H, Zhai P M, Zheng Z G 2010 Plateau Meteorology 29 403 (in Chinese) [刘莉红、翟盘茂、郑祖光 2010 高原气象 29 403]
[28]
[29]	Cheng B Y, Ding Y G, Wang F 2003 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 27 920 (in Chinese) [程炳岩、丁裕国、汪方 2003大气科学 27 920]
[30]
[31]	Zhang S Y, Song Y L 2004 Plateau Meteorology 59 83 (in Chinese)[张尚印、宋艳玲 2004地理学报 59 83]
[32]
[33]	Peng C K, Buldyrev S V, Havlin S 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
[34]
[35]	He W P, Feng GL, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F 2009 Non. Proc. Geophys. 15 601
[36]	Janosi I M,Janecsko B,Kondor I 1999 Physica A 269 111
[37]
[38]
[39]	Ausloos M 2006 Physica A 285 48
[40]
[41]	Fraedrich K 2002 Stoch. Dynam. 2 403
[42]
[43]	Lux T, Marehesi M 1999 Nature 397 498
[44]
[45]	Yang P, Hou W, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5333(in Chinese)[杨萍、侯威、封国林 2008 57 5333]
[46]	Theiler J, Linsay P S 1993 M Rubin Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past (Addison-Wesley, Reading Mass. Press) p429
[47]
[48]	Timmer J 1998 Phys. Rev. E 58 5153
[49]
[50]
[51]	Theiler J, Eubank S, Longtin A 1992 Physica D 58 77
[52]
[53]	Kugiumtzis D 2006 Phys. Rev. E 62 25
[54]	Timmer J 2006 Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 2647
[55]
[56]	Stam C J, Mpijn J P, Pritchard W S 1998 Physica D 112 361
[57]
[58]
[59]	Bernaola G P 2001 Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 168
[60]
[61]	Oliver J L, Bernaola G P, Carpena P, Romn R R 2001 Gene 276 47
[62]	Chernoff H, Lehmann E L 1954 The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 25 579
[63]
[64]	Plackett R L 1993 International Statistical Review 51 59
[65]
[66]	Greenwood P E, Nikulin M S 1996 Wiley, New York. ISBN 047155779X
[67]
[68]
[69]	Wallace J M,Gutzler D S 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 784
[70]
[71]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 1999 Acta Geographica Sinica 54 125 (in Chinese)[龚道溢、王绍武 1999 地理学报 54 125]
[72]	Ju J H, Ren J Z, Lv J M 2004 Plateau Meteorology 23 429 (in Chinese)[琚建华、任菊章、吕俊梅 2004 高原气象 23 429]
[73]
[74]
[75]	Gong D Y, Zhu J H, Wang S W 2002 Plateau Meteorology 21 8 (in Chinese)[龚道溢、朱锦红、王绍武 2002 高原气象 21 8]
[76]
[77]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 2003 Act. Geo. Sin. 58 559(in Chinese)[龚道溢、王绍武 2003 地理学报 58 559]
[78]	Kapur J N, Sahoo P K, Wong A K. 1985 CVGIP 29 273
[79]
[80]	Wong A K C, Sahoo P K. 1989 IEEE Trans. SMC 19 866
[81]
[82]
[83]	Pal N R, Pal S K 1991 IEEE Trans. SMC 21 1260

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