全球变暖对高温破纪录事件规律性的影响

宗序平; 李明辉; 熊开国; 胡经国

doi:10.7498/aps.59.8272

摘要

分别采用高斯分布函数和偏态分布函数分析了厦门市1954—2004年51年日观测温度资料中的高温破纪录事件的统计规律,并以此采用蒙特卡罗方法对厦门市未来高温破纪录事件发展趋势进行了模拟.结果显示:厦门近50年来6月的日温度观测资料更符合偏态函数统计规律性; 但理论研究表明偏态函数与高斯函数有着同样的收敛极限,即Gumbel 分布函数. 模拟结果还显示:在全球增暖背景下的基于偏态函数分布的蒙特卡罗模拟能较好地揭示未来厦门市极端事件发生规律, 并对厦门未来的10年6月份日温度概率分布做了预测.全球增暖背景,一方

关键词:

Abstract

Statistical characteristic of daily temperature series (1954—2004) of Xiamen station is analyzed by using Gaussian and skew distribution functions, and then the future probable trend of record temperature events (RBTE) is also simulated by using Monte-Carlo(MC) methods based on the Gaussian and skew distribution functions, respectively. Results show that the statistical property of nearly 50a daily observation temperature data in June of Xiamen station is more consistent with that obtained from the skew function. However, the theoretical study shows that the skew function and Gaussian function have the same limit of convergence, i.e. the Gumbel distribution function. The results also show that the MC simulation based on the skew distribution with global warming background can reveal the future probable extreme events well, and the Xiamen's daily temperature distribution of June in the next 10 a is predicted. The global warming background can lead the occurrence probabilities of high-temperature record-breaking event and the average daily temperature to increase. In addition, based on the observed date in China, the spatial temperature distribution of the occurrence with the max probability over China in coming 10 years is also presented.

Keywords:

record-breaking high temperature events /
Monte Carlo simulation /
skew distribution function

作者及机构信息

(1)扬州大学数学科学与技术学院,扬州 225002; (2)扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,扬州 225002

基金项目: 科技部支撑项目"极端气候事件的检测和可预测性关键技术研发" (批准号:2007BAC29B01),国家自然科学基金 (批准号:40875040, 40775048),国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2006CB400503),公益性行业科研专项(批准号:GYHY200906014)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

(1)College of Mathematical Science,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225002,China; (2)College of Physics Science and Technology,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225002,China

参考文献

[1]	Meehl G A,Karl T,Easterling D R,Changnon S,Pielke R,Changnon D,Evans J,Groisman P Y,Knutson T R,Kunkel K E,Mearns L O,Parmesan C,Pulwarty R,Root T,Sylves R T,Whetto P,Zwiers F 2000 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 81 413
[2]	Easterling D R,Evans J L,Groisman P Y,Karl T R,Kunkel K E,Ambenje P 2000 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 81 417
[3]	Feng G L , Dong W J 2003 Chin.Phys 12 1076
[4]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 4342(in Chinese) [龚志强、王晓娟、支蓉、封国林 2009 58 4342]
[5]	Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736
[6]	Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 3932(in Chinese) [侯威、杨萍、封国林 2008 57 3932]
[7]	Feng G L,Wang Q G, Hou W, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 4 (in Chinese) [封国林、王启光、侯威、龚志强、支蓉 2009 58 4]
[8]	Zhang D Q, Qian Z H 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 4634(in Chinese)[章大全、钱忠华 2008 57 4634]
[9]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J,Li J P 2005 Acta. Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林、龚志强、董文杰、李建平 2005 54 5494]
[10]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data (Beijing: Metrological press) (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯威、万仕全、支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(气象出版社)]
[11]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P2005 Chin. Phys. 14 21
[12]	Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Zhou L 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 2113(in Chinese)[支蓉、龚志强、郑志海、周磊 2009 58 2113]
[13]	He W P,Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F2008 Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 15 601
[14]	Wang Q G, Hou W, Zheng Z H, Gao R 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 6640(in Chinese)[王启光、侯威、郑志海、高荣 2009 58 6640 ]
[15]	Zhi R, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta. Phys. Sin. 56 1837(in Chinese) [支蓉、廉毅、封国林 2007 56 1837]
[16]	Xiao Y R 1994 Statistical Computing Method for Probability (Tianjin:Nankai University Press) P130 ( in Chinese) [肖云茹 1994 概率统计计算方法 (天津:南开大学出版社) 第130页]
[17]	Zhang W,Gao X Q,Dong W J,Li J P 2006 Acta. Phys. Sin. 55 2657(in Chinese)[张文、高新全、董文杰、李建平 2006 55 2657]
[18]	Wan S Q,Wang L,Feng G L,He W P,Wang C J,Zhou G H 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 5083 (in Chinese)[万仕全、王令、封国林、何文平、汪婵娟、周国华 2009 58 5083]
[19]	Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林、杨杰、万仕全、侯威、支蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61 ]
[20]	Xiong K G,Feng G L,Wang Q G,Hu J G 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 8107 (in Chinese)[熊开国、封国林、王启光、胡经国 2009 58 8107]
[21]	Redner S,Petersen M R 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[22]	Eichner J F,Kantelhardt J W,Bunde A,Havlin S 2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 016130
[23]	Feng G Li Gao X Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2008 Chaos Solitons and Fractal 37 487
[24]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[25]	Woo M K 1992 Climate Change 20 313
[26]	Mearns L O,Katz R W,Schenider S H 1984 J. Climate App. Meteor. 23 1601
[27]	Bassett G W 1992 Climatic Change 21 303
[28]	Nagarajan R,Govindan R B 2006 Physica A 364 271
[29]	Reitan C H,Moran J M 1977 Mon.Wea.Rev. 105 1442
[30]	Hu Y C,Dong W J,He Y 2007 Adv. Earth. Sci. 22 1066 ( in Chinese) [胡宜昌、董文杰、何勇 2007 地球科学进展 22 1066]
[31]	Ding Y G,Liu J F,Zhang YC 2004 Chin.J. Atmos. Sci. 28 771(in Chinese) [丁裕国、刘吉峰、张耀存 2004 大气科学 28 771]
[32]	Chen B Y,Ding Y G,He J X 2003 J. Trop. Meteor. 19 429 (in Chinese) [程炳岩、丁裕国、何卷雄 2003 热带气象学报 19 429]
[33]	Xu L R,Luo K L,Chang J,Li A Z 2002 J. Grad.Sch Chin. Acad. Sci. 19 121 (in Chinese) [徐立荣、雒昆利、常军、李爱贞 2002 中国科学院研究生院学报19 121]
[34]	Deng H P,Wu Z F 1996 Acta Geogr. Sin. 51 50 (in Chinese) [邓慧平、吴正方 1996 地理学报 51 50]
[35]	Wang D J,Chen B Y,Ding Y G 2003 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 26 263 (in Chinese) [王大钧、程炳岩、丁裕国 2003 南京气象学院学报 26 263 ]
[36]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta. Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[37]	Yu G,Lai G Y,Xue B,Liu X M,Wang S M,Wang A J 2004 J. Lake Sci. 16 193 (in Chinese) [于革、赖格英、薛滨、刘晓玫、王苏民、王爱军 2004 湖泊科学 16 193]
[38]	Duan J N,Li XL,Wang GL,Li B G 2001 J. Soil Water Conserv. 15 99 (in Chinese) [段建南、李旭霖、王改兰、李保国 2001 水土保持学报 15 99 ]
[39]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta. Phys. Sin. 51 1181(in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、贾晓静、曹鸿兴 2002 51 1181]
[40]	Zhang W F,Zhang J 2002 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 22 294 (in Chinese)[张维锋、张军 2002 气象科学 22 294 ]
[41]	Xiong K G,Yang J,Wan S Q,Feng G L,Hu J G 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 2843(in Chinese) [熊开国、杨杰、万仕全、封国林、胡经国 2009 58 2843]
[42]	Wang S G,Shi J H,Yin S J,Wu M X 2004 Introduction of linear Model (Bei Jing:Scientific Press) P175 (in Chinese) [王松贵,史建红,尹素菊,吴密霞 2004 线性模型导论(北京:科学出版社)第175页]
[43]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta. Phys. Sin. 59 664(in Chinese)[杨杰、侯威、封国林 2010 59 664]

施引文献

[1]	Meehl G A,Karl T,Easterling D R,Changnon S,Pielke R,Changnon D,Evans J,Groisman P Y,Knutson T R,Kunkel K E,Mearns L O,Parmesan C,Pulwarty R,Root T,Sylves R T,Whetto P,Zwiers F 2000 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 81 413
[2]	Easterling D R,Evans J L,Groisman P Y,Karl T R,Kunkel K E,Ambenje P 2000 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 81 417
[3]	Feng G L , Dong W J 2003 Chin.Phys 12 1076
[4]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng G L 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 4342(in Chinese) [龚志强、王晓娟、支蓉、封国林 2009 58 4342]
[5]	Zhang D Q, Feng G L, Hu J G 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 736
[6]	Hou W, Yang P, Feng G L 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 3932(in Chinese) [侯威、杨萍、封国林 2008 57 3932]
[7]	Feng G L,Wang Q G, Hou W, Gong Z Q, Zhi R 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 4 (in Chinese) [封国林、王启光、侯威、龚志强、支蓉 2009 58 4]
[8]	Zhang D Q, Qian Z H 2008 Acta. Phys. Sin. 57 4634(in Chinese)[章大全、钱忠华 2008 57 4634]
[9]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Dong W J,Li J P 2005 Acta. Phys. Sin. 54 5494 (in Chinese) [封国林、龚志强、董文杰、李建平 2005 54 5494]
[10]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Gong Z Q, Hou W, Wan S Q, Zhi R 2006 Nonlinear theories and methods on spatial-temporal distribution of the observational data (Beijing: Metrological press) (in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、龚志强、侯威、万仕全、支蓉 2006 观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法(气象出版社)]
[11]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P2005 Chin. Phys. 14 21
[12]	Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Zhou L 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 2113(in Chinese)[支蓉、龚志强、郑志海、周磊 2009 58 2113]
[13]	He W P,Feng G L, Wu Q, Wan S Q, Chou J F2008 Nonlin. Processes Geophys. 15 601
[14]	Wang Q G, Hou W, Zheng Z H, Gao R 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 6640(in Chinese)[王启光、侯威、郑志海、高荣 2009 58 6640 ]
[15]	Zhi R, Lian Y, Feng G L 2007 Acta. Phys. Sin. 56 1837(in Chinese) [支蓉、廉毅、封国林 2007 56 1837]
[16]	Xiao Y R 1994 Statistical Computing Method for Probability (Tianjin:Nankai University Press) P130 ( in Chinese) [肖云茹 1994 概率统计计算方法 (天津:南开大学出版社) 第130页]
[17]	Zhang W,Gao X Q,Dong W J,Li J P 2006 Acta. Phys. Sin. 55 2657(in Chinese)[张文、高新全、董文杰、李建平 2006 55 2657]
[18]	Wan S Q,Wang L,Feng G L,He W P,Wang C J,Zhou G H 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 5083 (in Chinese)[万仕全、王令、封国林、何文平、汪婵娟、周国华 2009 58 5083]
[19]	Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, Hou W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林、杨杰、万仕全、侯威、支蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61 ]
[20]	Xiong K G,Feng G L,Wang Q G,Hu J G 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 8107 (in Chinese)[熊开国、封国林、王启光、胡经国 2009 58 8107]
[21]	Redner S,Petersen M R 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[22]	Eichner J F,Kantelhardt J W,Bunde A,Havlin S 2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 016130
[23]	Feng G Li Gao X Q, Dong W J, Li J P 2008 Chaos Solitons and Fractal 37 487
[24]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[25]	Woo M K 1992 Climate Change 20 313
[26]	Mearns L O,Katz R W,Schenider S H 1984 J. Climate App. Meteor. 23 1601
[27]	Bassett G W 1992 Climatic Change 21 303
[28]	Nagarajan R,Govindan R B 2006 Physica A 364 271
[29]	Reitan C H,Moran J M 1977 Mon.Wea.Rev. 105 1442
[30]	Hu Y C,Dong W J,He Y 2007 Adv. Earth. Sci. 22 1066 ( in Chinese) [胡宜昌、董文杰、何勇 2007 地球科学进展 22 1066]
[31]	Ding Y G,Liu J F,Zhang YC 2004 Chin.J. Atmos. Sci. 28 771(in Chinese) [丁裕国、刘吉峰、张耀存 2004 大气科学 28 771]
[32]	Chen B Y,Ding Y G,He J X 2003 J. Trop. Meteor. 19 429 (in Chinese) [程炳岩、丁裕国、何卷雄 2003 热带气象学报 19 429]
[33]	Xu L R,Luo K L,Chang J,Li A Z 2002 J. Grad.Sch Chin. Acad. Sci. 19 121 (in Chinese) [徐立荣、雒昆利、常军、李爱贞 2002 中国科学院研究生院学报19 121]
[34]	Deng H P,Wu Z F 1996 Acta Geogr. Sin. 51 50 (in Chinese) [邓慧平、吴正方 1996 地理学报 51 50]
[35]	Wang D J,Chen B Y,Ding Y G 2003 J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor. 26 263 (in Chinese) [王大钧、程炳岩、丁裕国 2003 南京气象学院学报 26 263 ]
[36]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta. Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林、戴新刚、王爱慧、丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[37]	Yu G,Lai G Y,Xue B,Liu X M,Wang S M,Wang A J 2004 J. Lake Sci. 16 193 (in Chinese) [于革、赖格英、薛滨、刘晓玫、王苏民、王爱军 2004 湖泊科学 16 193]
[38]	Duan J N,Li XL,Wang GL,Li B G 2001 J. Soil Water Conserv. 15 99 (in Chinese) [段建南、李旭霖、王改兰、李保国 2001 水土保持学报 15 99 ]
[39]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta. Phys. Sin. 51 1181(in Chinese)[封国林、董文杰、贾晓静、曹鸿兴 2002 51 1181]
[40]	Zhang W F,Zhang J 2002 Sci. Meteor. Sin. 22 294 (in Chinese)[张维锋、张军 2002 气象科学 22 294 ]
[41]	Xiong K G,Yang J,Wan S Q,Feng G L,Hu J G 2009 Acta. Phys. Sin. 58 2843(in Chinese) [熊开国、杨杰、万仕全、封国林、胡经国 2009 58 2843]
[42]	Wang S G,Shi J H,Yin S J,Wu M X 2004 Introduction of linear Model (Bei Jing:Scientific Press) P175 (in Chinese) [王松贵,史建红,尹素菊,吴密霞 2004 线性模型导论(北京:科学出版社)第175页]
[43]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta. Phys. Sin. 59 664(in Chinese)[杨杰、侯威、封国林 2010 59 664]

[1]	苏宁, 刘圆圆, 王力, 程建平. 秦始皇陵地宫宇宙射线缪子吸收成像模拟研究. , 2022, 71(6): 064201. doi: 10.7498/aps.71.20211582
[2]	寻之朋, 郝大鹏. 含复杂近邻的二维正方格子键渗流的蒙特卡罗模拟. , 2022, 71(6): 066401. doi: 10.7498/aps.71.20211757
[3]	王丽敏, 段丙皇, 许献国, 李昊, 陈治军, 杨坤杰, 张硕. 基于蒙特卡罗模拟研究锆钛酸铅镧材料的中子辐照损伤. , 2022, 71(7): 076101. doi: 10.7498/aps.71.20212041
[4]	田自宁, 欧阳晓平, 陈伟, 王雪梅, 邓宁, 刘文彪, 田言杰. 基于虚拟源原理的源边界参数蒙特卡罗反演技术. , 2019, 68(23): 232901. doi: 10.7498/aps.68.20191095
[5]	李文芳, 杜金锦, 文瑞娟, 杨鹏飞, 李刚, 张天才. 强耦合腔量子电动力学中单原子转移的实验及模拟. , 2014, 63(24): 244205. doi: 10.7498/aps.63.244205
[6]	华钰超, 董源, 曹炳阳. 硅纳米薄膜中声子弹道扩散导热的蒙特卡罗模拟. , 2013, 62(24): 244401. doi: 10.7498/aps.62.244401
[7]	肖渊, 王晓方, 滕建, 陈晓虎, 陈媛, 洪伟. 激光加速电子束放射照相的模拟研究. , 2012, 61(23): 234102. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.234102
[8]	兰木, 向钢, 辜刚旭, 张析. 一种晶体表面水平纳米线生长机理的蒙特卡罗模拟研究. , 2012, 61(22): 228101. doi: 10.7498/aps.61.228101
[9]	樊小辉, 赵兴宇, 王丽娜, 张丽丽, 周恒为, 张晋鲁, 黄以能. 分子串模型中空间弛豫模式的弛豫动力学的蒙特卡罗模拟. , 2011, 60(12): 126401. doi: 10.7498/aps.60.126401
[10]	陈珊, 吴青云, 陈志高, 许桂贵, 黄志高. ZnO1-xCx稀磁半导体的磁特性的第一性原理和蒙特卡罗研究. , 2009, 58(3): 2011-2017. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.2011
[11]	高飞, 山田亮子, 渡边光男, 刘华锋. 应用蒙特卡罗模拟进行正电子发射断层成像仪散射特性分析. , 2009, 58(5): 3584-3591. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.3584
[12]	熊开国, 封国林, 胡经国, 万仕全, 杨杰. 气候变化中高温破纪录事件的蒙特卡罗模拟研究. , 2009, 58(4): 2843-2852. doi: 10.7498/aps.58.2843
[13]	徐兰青, 李晖, 肖郑颖. 基于蒙特卡罗模拟的散射介质中后向光散射模型及分析应用. , 2008, 57(9): 6030-6035. doi: 10.7498/aps.57.6030
[14]	雷晓蔚, 郑波, 应和平. 二维自旋系统aging现象的数值模拟研究. , 2007, 56(3): 1713-1718. doi: 10.7498/aps.56.1713
[15]	和青芳, 徐征, 刘德昂, 徐叙瑢. 蒙特卡罗方法模拟薄膜电致发光器件中碰撞离化的作用. , 2006, 55(4): 1997-2002. doi: 10.7498/aps.55.1997
[16]	王世奇, 连贵君, 熊光成. La0.7Ca0.3MnO3和CeO2混合块状样品电输运性质及使用分形迭代电阻网络模型的计算模拟. , 2005, 54(8): 3815-3821. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.3815
[17]	王志军, 董丽芳, 尚勇. 电子助进化学气相沉积金刚石中发射光谱的蒙特卡罗模拟. , 2005, 54(2): 880-885. doi: 10.7498/aps.54.880
[18]	王建华, 金传恩. 蒙特卡罗模拟在辉光放电鞘层离子输运研究中的应用. , 2004, 53(4): 1116-1122. doi: 10.7498/aps.53.1116
[19]	郭宝增. 用全带Monte Carlo方法模拟纤锌矿相GaN和ZnO材料的电子输运特性. , 2002, 51(10): 2344-2348. doi: 10.7498/aps.51.2344
[20]	赵辉, 何大伟, 王永生, 徐叙瑢. ZnS型薄膜电致发光器件输运过程的解析能带模拟. , 2000, 49(9): 1867-1872. doi: 10.7498/aps.49.1867

计量

文章访问数: 8753
PDF下载量: 789
被引次数: 0

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

搜索

留言板