东亚北部地区气温的冬季-冬季再现特征研究

王晓娟; 乔少博; 沈柏竹; 封国林

doi:10.7498/aps.63.239202

摘要

对东亚北部(40–50°N, 100–130°E)区域1953–2012年大气温度的冬季-夏季-次年冬季(简称冬季-冬季)的季节变化特征进行了初步研究. 结果表明: 2008年以来, 该区域的气温从低层至高层(1000–400 hPa)连续三年出现冬季偏冷-夏季偏暖-次年冬季偏冷的典型特征, 20世纪50–60年代亦有类似情况; 而20世纪90年代则出现了与此相反的冬季偏暖-夏季偏冷-次年冬季偏暖的变化特征. 将这种典型的气温季节变化特征定义为一种新的变化机理: 冬季-冬季再现(WWR). 根据1953–2012年的历年变化情况将这60年划分为四种不同的类型: 负(正)冬季-冬季再现(negative/positive WWR)型和负(正)冬季-冬季非再现(negative/positive non-WWR)型. 其中, 气温表现为WWR型的年份共计23年, 出现概率近40%, 并且该WWR特征是相对独立于El Niño-南方涛动指数的变化而存在的. 对不同类型年份的位势高度场、垂直速度场及其850 hPa风场进行的合成分析表明: 对于WWR型, 高层(500 hPa)至低层(1000 hPa)的大气内部动力过程具有与气温相匹配的冬季-冬季的再现特征; 而non-WWR型则没有出现类似的特征, 从而在一定程度验证了WWR 存在的可能性. WWR的提出为进一步开展当前全球增暖背景下冬季低温事件的频发提供了一个新的思路.

关键词:

Abstract

Seasonal evolution of atmospheric temperature with winter-summer-the following winter (winter-to-winter) characteristics in the northern area of East Asia (40–50°N, 100–130°E) from 1953 to 2012 has been investigated in this paper. Results indicate that: from 2008 on, the atmospheric temperature in this area had a typical characteristic of cold winter-warm summer-the following cold winter for three consecutive years from the lower layer to the upper layer (1000–400 hPa), and the similar situation also appeared in the period from 1950s to 1960s; however, the opposite variation characteristics of warm winter-cool summer-the following warm winter happened in 1990s. This typical seasonal evolution of atmospheric temperature was defined as a new variation mechanism: winter-to-winter recurrence (WWR). The recent 60 years may be divided into four different types according to the variation of the years from 1953 to 2012: negative (positive) winter-to-winter recurrence (negative/positive WWR) and negative (positive) non winter-to-winter recurrence (negative/positive non-WWR). In the 23 WWR years the probability of occurrence was close to 40%. This WWR characteristic still exists and is independent of the variation of the El Niño southern oscillation index. The synthetic anomalies analysis of geopotential height, vertical speed, and the winter vector at 850 hPa indicates that as for the WWR pattern, the dynamic process of inner atmosphere also has WWR characteristics corresponding to the atmospheric temperature from the lower layer (1000 hPa) to the upper layer (500 hPa) while the non-WWR pattern does not have the similar characters. This study will provide a new idea to further investigate the frequent occurrence of the winter low temperature events on the background of global warming.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;

2.
常熟理工学院物理与电子工程学院, 常熟 215500;

3.
吉林省气象科学研究所, 长春 130061

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:41305075)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2012CB955203,2012CB955902)和公益性行业科研专项(批准号:GYHY201106016)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

2.
College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Changshu Institute of Technology, Changshu 215500, China;

3.
Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province, Changchun 130061, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305075), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203, 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research Projects for Public Interest of China (Grant No. GYHY201106016).

参考文献

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[33]	Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 周磊, 支蓉, 封国林 2008 57 5351]
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[35]	Wang X J, Feng A X, Zhi R, Feng G L 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 029201
[36]	Gong Z Q, Zou M W, Gao X Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 3947 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 邹明玮, 高新全, 董文杰 2005 54 3947]
[37]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2005 Chin. Phys. B 14 21
[38]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 56 3619]
[39]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng A X 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 079201

施引文献

[1]	Ding Y H, Wang Z Y, Song Y F, Zhang J 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 808 (in Chinese) [丁一汇, 王遵娅, 宋亚芳, 张锦 2008 气象学报 66 808]
[2]	Bueh C, Shi N, Xie Z H 2011 Atmos. Sci. Lett. 12 273
[3]	Peng J B, Bueh C 2012 Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett. 5 252
[4]	Shen B Z, Liu S, Lian Y, Feng G L, Li S F, Gong Z Q 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 69 320 (in Chinese) [沈柏竹, 刘实, 廉毅, 封国林, 李尚锋, 龚志强 2011 气象学报 69 320]
[5]	Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Ren F M, Feng G L 2012 Adv. Climate Change Res. 8 8 (in Chinese) [王晓娟, 龚志强, 任福民, 封国林 2012 气候变化研究进展8 8]
[6]	Shi N, Zhu Q G 1996 J. Trop. Meteorol. 12 26 (in Chinese) [施能, 朱乾根 1996 热带气象学报12 26]
[7]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H 2011 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28 338
[8]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Cui D L, Wang Y J, Ren F M, Feng G L, Zhang Q, Zou X K, Wang X L 2012 J. Appl. Meteorol. 23 195 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 王晓娟, 崔冬林, 王艳姣, 任福民, 封国林, 张强, 邹旭凯, 王小玲 2012 应用气象学报 23 195]
[9]	Tang G L, Ding Y H, Wang S W, Ren G Y, Liu H B, Zhang L 2009 Adv. Climate Change Res. 5 71 (in Chinese) [唐国利, 丁一汇, 王绍武, 任国玉, 刘洪滨, 张莉 2009 气候变化研究进展 5 71]
[10]	Shen B Z, Lian Y, Zhang S X, Li S F 2012 Adv. Climate Change Res. 8 434 (in Chinese) [沈柏竹, 廉毅, 张世轩, 李尚锋 2012 气候变化研究进展 8 434]
[11]	He S H, Feng T C, Gong Z Q 2014 Chin. Phys. B 23 059202
[12]	Chen W 2002 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 26 595 (in Chinese) [陈文 2002 大气科学 26 595]
[13]	Wu L, Li C 2007 J. Climate 20 2581
[14]	Liu Q, Wen N, Liu Z 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L18611
[15]	Kim H J, Ahn J B 2012 J. Geophys. Res. 117 D12104
[16]	Huang J P, Yi Y H, Wang S W, Chou J F 1993 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 119 547
[17]	Ju J H, Ren J Z 2005 Sci. Meteorol. Sci. 25 18 (in Chinese) [琚建华, 任菊章 2005 气象科学 25 18]
[18]	Li C Y, Wang L Q, Gu W 2011 J. Atmos. Sci. 35 193 (in Chinese) [李崇银, 王力群, 顾薇 2011 大气科学 35 193]
[19]	Namias J, Born R M 1970 J. Geophys. Res. 75 5952
[20]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Feng G L 2014 Theor. Appl. Climatol. 117 195
[21]	Alexander M A, Deser C 1995 J. Phys. Oceanogr. 25 122
[22]	Alexander M A, Deser C, Timlin M S 1999 J. Climate 12 2419
[23]	Deser C, Alexander M A, Timlin M S 2003 J. Climate 16 57
[24]	Li J P, Zhao X 2010 J. Climate 23 3835
[25]	Zhao X, Li J P 2012 J. Geophys. Res. 117 C12023
[26]	Alexander M A, Blade I, Newman M, Lanzante J R, Lau N C, Scott J D 2002 J. Climate 15 2205
[27]	Huang J P, Higuchi K, Shabbar A 1998 Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 2707
[28]	Ding Y H 1991 Advanced Synoptic Meteorology (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp305-316 (in Chinese) [丁一汇 1991 高等天气学(北京: 气象出版社)第305–316页]
[29]	Ma X Q, Ding Y H, Xu H M 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 380 (in Chinese) [马晓青, 丁一汇, 徐海明 2008 大气科学 32 380]
[30]	Wang D H, Liu C J, Liu Y, Wei F Y, Zhao N, Jiang Z N, Li Y, Chen J Y, Wang Y F, Shi X H, Xu X D 2008 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 66 405 (in Chinese) [王东海, 柳崇健, 刘英, 魏凤英, 赵南, 姜智娜, 李英, 陈菊英, 王亚非, 施晓晖, 徐祥德 2008 气象学报 66 405]
[31]	Bueh C, Fu X Y, Xie Z W 2011 Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett. 4 235
[32]	Jhun J G, Lee E J 2004 J. Climate 17 711
[33]	Gong Z Q, Zhou L, Zhi R, Feng G L 2008 Acta Phys. Sin. 57 5351 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 周磊, 支蓉, 封国林 2008 57 5351]
[34]	Gong Z Q, Zhao J H, Feng G L 2014 Sci. China D 44 17 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 赵俊虎, 封国林 2014 中国科学 D辑 44 17]
[35]	Wang X J, Feng A X, Zhi R, Feng G L 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 029201
[36]	Gong Z Q, Zou M W, Gao X Q, Dong W J 2005 Acta Phys. Sin. 54 3947 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 邹明玮, 高新全, 董文杰 2005 54 3947]
[37]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2005 Chin. Phys. B 14 21
[38]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 3619 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林 2007 56 3619]
[39]	Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R, Feng A X 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 079201

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