数字滤波弱约束四维变分同化在台风初始化中的应用Ⅱ. 数字滤波权重选择

钟剑; 费建芳; 董钢; 程小平; 孙一妹

doi:10.7498/aps.63.149201

摘要

数字滤波权重的选择是影响台风路径和强度预报的重要因素，某些个例中直接决定着台风数值模拟的成功与否，合适的数字滤波权重非常重要. 本文利用2010年3个台风7个不同初始时刻个例，开展数字滤波弱约束四维变分同化（4D-Var）台风初始化试验，分析不同数字滤波权重对台风路径和强度预报的影响；基于上述台风路径和强度预报后验统计信息，以及台风中心区域800 km范围和整个模拟区域3 h平均地面气压倾向信息，提出一种bogus资料同化台风初始化中数字滤波权重优选方案，并进行理论解释说明；同时，指出bogus 资料同化台风初始化中，常规数字滤波权重为1000更合理，明显有别于常规天气和暴雨天气权重设置.

关键词:

Abstract

In Part I, the digital filter weak constraint four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation is implemented with different digital filter weight settings through two typhoon cases. The results show that the influence of the digital filter weight on typhoon track and intensity prediction is large, and how to choose an appropriate digital filter weight is important. In this paper, seven different initial time typhoon cases in 2010 are selected to analyze the effects of different digital filter weight settings on typhoon track and intensity prediction. Based on the track and intensity prediction information of the seven cases, and the three-hour pressure tendency information for the whole domain and the area with 800 km radius from the typhoon center, a method of choosing digital filter weight is proposed for typhoon initialization with bogus data assimilation. Also, the ordinary digital filter weight setting is proposed, which is 1000 and obviously different from the operational and storm cases weight setting.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
中国卫星海上测控部, 江阴 214431;

2.
中国卫星海上测控部飞行器海上测量与控制联合实验室, 江阴 214431;

3.
中国人民解放军理工大学气象海洋学院, 南京 211101

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（批准号：41105065，41230421，41005029，41175025）和国家公益性行业专项（批准号：GYHY201106004）资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
China Satellite Maritime Tracking and Control Department, Jiangyin 214431, China;

2.
Joint Laboratory of Ocean-based Flight Vehicle Measurement and Control, China Satellite Maritime Tracking and Control Department, Jiangyin 214431, China;

3.
Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41105065, 41230421, 41005029, 41175025) and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interesst of China (Grant No. GYHY201106004).

参考文献

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[6]	Zhang L, Huang S X, Shen C, Shi W L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 119201
[7]	Zhang L, Huang S X, Shen C, Shi W L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 129201
[8]	Zhong J, Huang S X, Du H D, Zhang L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 034301
[9]	Zhong J, Huang S X, Fei J F, Du H D, Zhang L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 064301
[10]	Peng S Q, Zou X 2002 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 81 237
[11]	Peng S Q, Zou X 2010 J. Geophys. Res. 115 D23111
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施引文献

[1]	Gauthier P, Thepaut J N 2001 Mon. Wea. Rev. 129 2089
[2]	Huang X Y, Xiao Q N, Barker D M, Zhang X, Michalakes J, Huang W, Henderson T, Bray J, Chen Y S, Ma Z Z, Dudhia J, Guo Y R, Zhang X Y, Won D J, Lin H C, Kuo Y H 2009 Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 299
[3]	Zhong J, Fei J F, Huang S X, Du H D 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149203 (in Chinese) [钟剑, 费建芳, 黄思训, 杜华栋 2012 61 149203]
[4]	Zhang W M, Cao X Q, Song J Q 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 249202 (in Chinese) [张卫民, 曹小群, 宋君强 2012 61 249202]
[5]	Zhong J, Fei J F, Cheng X P, Sun Y M, Shi W 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 119203 (in Chinese) [钟剑, 费建芳, 程小平, 孙一妹, 施威 2014 62 119203]
[6]	Zhang L, Huang S X, Shen C, Shi W L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 119201
[7]	Zhang L, Huang S X, Shen C, Shi W L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 129201
[8]	Zhong J, Huang S X, Du H D, Zhang L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 034301
[9]	Zhong J, Huang S X, Fei J F, Du H D, Zhang L 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 064301
[10]	Peng S Q, Zou X 2002 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 81 237
[11]	Peng S Q, Zou X 2010 J. Geophys. Res. 115 D23111
[12]	Wang S C, Li Y, Zhang W M, Zhao J, Cao X Q 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 099203 (in Chinese) [王舒畅, 李毅, 张卫民, 赵军, 曹小群 2011 60 099203]
[13]	Wee T K, Kuo Y H 2004 Mon. Wea. Rev. 132 543
[14]	Wang W, Cindy B, Michael D, Jimy D, Dave G, Michael K, Kelly K, Lin H C, John M, Syed R, Zhang X 2012 ARW Version 3 Modeling System User's Guide (New York: National Center for Atmospheric Research) pp148-202
[15]	Huang X G, Fei J F, Zhang G S, Lu H C 2004 J. Tropical Meteorol. 20 129 (in Chinese) [黄小刚, 费建芳, 张根生, 陆汉城 2004 热带气象学报 20 129]
[16]	Zhong J, Fei J F, Cheng X P, Huang X G 2014 Sci. China Earth Sci.
[17]	Xiao Q N, Chen L Q, Zhang X Y 2009 J. Appl. Meteor. Climat. 48 680
[18]	Chen M, Huang X Y 2006 Mon. Wea. Rev. 134 1222

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