国家气候中心大气环流模式冬季模式误差特征分析

王皓; 郑志海; 于海鹏; 黄建平; 季明霞

doi:10.7498/aps.63.099202

摘要

本文利用19822010年国家气候中心第二代月动力延伸预测系统中大气环流模式（BCC_AGCM）的回报资料和美国国家环境预测中心和美国国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析资料，分析了该模式对冬季气温预测的误差特征及其与外强迫的联系. 结果表明模式能够在整体上较好地反映出欧亚区域冬季气温的变化趋势，能抓住东亚冬季风区气温年际变化的主要空间模态，对东亚冬季风区冬季气温具有一定的预报能力. 预报误差的空间分布和时间演变特征的结果表明，误差在陆地大于海洋，高纬地区大于低纬地区，同时与海拔高度也有密切关系. 预报误差的主要模态与一些关键区域的海温和海冰存在显著的相关性，表明模式对外强迫异常的响应能力存在缺陷. 这为结合模式对关键区海温和海冰异常的响应能力，有针对性地改进模式对东亚冬季风区冬季气温的预测能力提供了依据.

关键词:

月预报 /
预报误差 /
海温 /
北极海冰

Abstract

By using the National Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC_AGCM) for the second generation monthly dynamic extended range system and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data accumulated during 1982-2010, the model forecast errors in winter temperature prediction and their relationship with external forcing factors are analyzed. Result indicates that the model can well reproduce the variation trends of winter temperature over Eurasia region, and the main interannual variability pattern of winter temperature over East Asian monsoon domain can be successfully presented. It reveals that the model has acceptable performances in winter temperature prediction over East Asian monsoon domain, while the forecast errors are still considerable. In spatial distribution, the forecast errors over lands are larger than those over oceans. Meanwhile, the errors at high latitudes are larger than at low latitudes, and they are also closely related to altitude. The principal components of forecast errors have significant association with the sea surface temperature and the sea ice concentration over some key regions, it is shown that the response capability to external forcings is insufficient. This may provide a valuable reference for improving the prediction skill of winter temperature for East Asian monsoon domain, in combination with the model response to external forcings.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000;

2.
国家气候中心, 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081;

3.
94195部队气象台, 临洮 730500

基金项目: 公益性行业（气象）专项（批准号：GYHY201206009）、国家重点基础研究发展计划（批准号：2013CB430204）、国家自然科学基金青年科学基金（批准号：41105070，41005051）、国家重大科学研究计划（批准号：2012CB955301）和长江学者和创新团队发展计划（批准号：IRT1018）资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
Key laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;

3.
Meteorology Department of 94195 PLA, Lintao 730500, China

Funds: Project supported by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201206009), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41105070, 41005051), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955301), and the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. IRT1018).

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施引文献

[1]	Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[2]	Chen M X, Ji L R 1989 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 47 147 (in Chinese)[陈明行, 纪立人 1989 气象学报 47 147]
[3]
[4]
[5]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese)[封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[6]
[7]	He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 969 (in Chinese)[何文平, 封国林, 董文杰, 李建平 2006 55 969]
[8]	Dai X G, Pu Y F, Wang P 2011 Adv. Meteor. Sci. Technol. 1 26 (in Chinese) [戴新刚, 浦一芬, 汪萍 2011 气象科技进展 1 26]
[9]
[10]	Tibaldi S, Palmer T N, Brankovic C, U Cubasch 1990 Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc. 116 835
[11]
[12]
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[21]
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[86]	Gong D Y, Wang S W 2003 Acta Geographica Sinica 58 559 (in Chinese)[龚道溢, 王绍武 2003 地理学报 58 559]
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[89]	Li Y, Lu R Y, He J H 2007 Chin. J. Atmosph. Sci. 31 505 (in Chinese)[李勇, 陆日宇, 何金海 2007 大气科学 31 505]
[90]
[91]	Wang B, Wu Z W, Chang C P, Liu J 2010 J. Climate 23 1495
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[104]
[105]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 2235
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[107]	Wu T W, Yu R C, Zhang F, Wang Z Z, Dong M, Wang L N Jin X, Chen D L, Li L 2010 Climate Dyn. 32 123
[108]
[109]	Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D 1996 Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77 437
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[111]	Huang J Y 1989 Meteor Mon. 15 3 (in Chinese) [黄嘉佑 1989 气象 15 3]
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[121]	Yang L N 2013 M. S. Thesis (Beijing: Chinese Academy Meteorological Sciences) (in Chinese) [杨柳妮 2013 硕士学位论文(北京: 中国气象科学研究院)]

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