欧亚中高纬阻塞高压关键区高度场动力-统计跨季度预测实验

赵俊虎; 杨杰; 龚志强; 支蓉

doi:10.7498/aps.62.099206

摘要

本文主要利用实际业务模式的预报结果和丰富的历史资料对乌拉尔山、贝加尔湖和鄂霍次克海三个阻塞高压活动关键区夏季平均的500 hPa高度场进行动力-统计跨季度预测实验, 其结果显示该方法能在一定程度上减小模式预报误差, 提高预报技巧, 显示出了良好的业务应用前景. 此外, 敏感性实验显示, 相似指标和相似年选取个数都对预测结果有显著影响.

关键词:

The blocking high in Eurasia mid-high latitudes (EMHBH) is one of the leading members of East Asian summer monsoon circulation system, which also has a crucial influence on the summer flood/drought in China, especially in the region of Yangtze River. However, the objective quantitative prediction of EMHBH is an urgent issue we are facing and also a complicated problem in the current short-term climate prediction. This paper, by using the dynamical and statistical prediction (DSP) methods and based on the forecast data of the numerical modal(CGCM) and the abundant historical observations, has carried out prediction experiments of the above three blocking high regions in the summer averaged 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The results show that the DSP methods can diminish the prediction errors to some extent, which is also suitable for operational application. In addition, sensitivity tests show that the selection of the number of similar targets or similar yeas has significant influences on the prediction results.

Keywords:

作者及机构信息

1.
兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州 730000;

2.
国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室, 北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(批准号:40930952,41105055)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2012CB955902,2013CB430204)资助的课题.

Authors and contacts

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;

2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (Grant Nos. 40930952, 41105055), and the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.s 2012CB955902, 2013CB430204).

参考文献

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[4]	Noar P F 1983 Aust. Met. May. 31 37
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[35]	Li J P, Wang J X L 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 1632
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施引文献

[1]	Berggren R, Bolin B, Rossby C G 1949 Tellus. 1 14
[2]	Rex D F 1950 Tellus. 2 196
[3]	Hartmann D H, Ghan S J 1980 Mon. Wea. Rev. 108 1144
[4]	Noar P F 1983 Aust. Met. May. 31 37
[5]	Kaas E, Branstator G 1993 J. Atoms. Sci. 50 3061
[6]	Pelly J L, Hoskins B J 2003 J. Atmos. Sci. 60 743
[7]	Luo Z X 1989 Science China B 6 665 (in Chinese) [罗哲贤 1989 中国科学(B辑) 6 665]
[8]	Yang Y W 2003 Meteorologica Mon 29 3 (in Chinese) [杨义文 2003 气象 29 3]
[9]	Zhou X P 1957 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 28 75 (in Chinese) [周晓平 1957 气象学报 28 75]
[10]	Li F, Ding Y H 2004 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 62 347 (in Chinese) [李峰, 丁一汇 2004 气象学报 62 347]
[11]	Tang M C 1957 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 28 282 (in Chinese) [汤懋苍 1957 气象学报 28 282]
[12]	Zhang P Z, Yang S L 1996 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 54 633 (in Chinese) [张培忠, 杨素兰 1996 气象学报 54 633]
[13]	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y 1998 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 56 199 (in Chinese) [张庆云, 陶诗言 1998 气象学报 56 199]
[14]	Zhang Q Y, Tao S Y, Peng J B 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 815 (in Chinese) [张庆云, 陶诗言, 彭京备 2008 大气科学 32 815]
[15]	Tao S Y, Zhao Y J, Chen X M 1958 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 29 119 (in Chinese) [陶诗言, 赵煜佳, 陈晓敏 1958 气象学报 29 119]
[16]	Wang Y 1992 J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 70 929
[17]	Chen H Y 1957 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 28 1 (in Chinese) [陈汉耀 1957 气象学报 28 1]
[18]	Li W J 1999 Meteorologica Mon 25 20 (in Chinese) [李维京 1999 气象 25 20]
[19]	Chen J Y, Wang Y H, Wang W 2001 Plateau Meteor 20 388 (in Chinese) [陈菊英, 王玉红, 王文 2001 高原气象 20 388]
[20]	Barnett T P, Preisendorfer R W 1978 J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1771
[21]	Van H M 1994 Tellus 46A 314
[22]	Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176]
[23]	Chou J F 1974 Science China. 6 635 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1974 中国科学 6 635]
[24]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteor 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[25]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[26]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Jia X J, Cao H X 2002 Acta Phys. Sin. 51 1181 [封国林, 董文杰, 贾晓静, 曹鸿兴 2002 51 1181]
[27]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteorologica Sinca 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[28]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Science China. D 37 1589 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 中国科学(D) 37 1589]
[29]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[30]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci.35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支蓉 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[31]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P, Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 69 149204 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 赵俊虎, 封国林, 黄建平, 胡经国 2012 69 149204]
[32]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支蓉, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[33]	Zhao Z G 2000 Summer Drought and Environmental Field in China. (Beijing: Meteorological Press) 75-78 (in Chinese) [赵振国 1999 中国夏季旱涝及环境场 (北京: 气象出版社) 第75—78页]
[34]	Nan S L, Li J P 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 2266
[35]	Li J P, Wang J X L 2003 Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 1632
[36]	Li J P, Wang J X L 2003 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 20 661
[37]	Li Z C, Bi B G, Zhu T, Wang Y H, Niu R Y 2004 Meteorologica Mon 30 4 (in Chinese) [李泽椿, 毕宝贵, 朱彤, 王友恒, 牛若芸 2004 气象 30 4]
[38]	Kang I S, Lee J Y, Park C K 2004 J. Climate 17 834
[39]	Wang S W 1984 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 1 7

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