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基于百分位,研究了Lorenz系统极端事件的前兆信号分布特征及可预测性;利用前兆信号及接收器算子特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC曲线)对中国旱涝极端事件可预测性进行研究,得到了极端事件的可预测效果与序列的自相关性、极端事件的极端程度之间的关系.研究表明,无论是Lorenz系统分量序列还是Palmer干旱指数序列(Palmer drought severity index, PDSI),存在极端事件的可预测性随极端程度增强而增加的现象.同时对各区域极端旱涝事件前兆信号及可预测性进行分析,为中国旱涝极端事件的预测提供一定科学依据.We investigate precursors and predictability of extreme events of Lorenz system with different percentile. The precursors and predictability of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extremes in China are analyzed, and obtained how the quality of the prediction depends on the size of the extreme events and on the correlation strength. Results indicate that for extreme events of Lorenz system and PDSI series, the stronger the extreme, the higher the predictablility. Moreover, we analyzed precursors and predictability of eight regions in China and provide some due scientific basis for flood and drought predictions.
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Keywords:
- extreme events /
- precursors /
- predictability
[1] Wei F Y 2007 Modern Technology of Statistical Climate Detection and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p6 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第6页]
[2] Render S, Mark R P 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[3] Jan F E, Jan W K, Armin B, Shlomo H 2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 016130
[4] Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全、杨 杰、王启光、封国林 2009 58 4354 ]
[5] Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, How W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林、杨 杰、万仕全、侯 威、支 蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[6] Sarah H, Eduardo G A, Detlef H, Holger K 2007 Phys. Rev. E 75 016706
[7] Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 14 1959
[8] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[9] Lorenz E N 1997 The Essence of Chaos (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p33 (in Chinese) [洛伦兹 1997 混沌的本质 (北京: 气象出版社) 第33页]
[10] Kantz H, Holstein D, Ragwitz M, Vitanov N K 2004 Physica A 342 315
[11] Gober M, Wilson C A, Milton S F, Stephenson D B 2004 J. Hydrol. 288 225
[12] Lamper D, Howison S D, Johnson N F 2002 Phys. Rev. Lett. 88 1
[13] Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p61
[14] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorl. 5 1117
[15] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Karl T R 1998 Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 3367
[16] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorol. 5 1117
[17] Karl T R 1983 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 22 1356
[18] Karl T R 1986 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 25 77
[19] Karl T R, Koscielny A J 1982 J. Climate 2 313
[20] Nkemdirim L, Weber L 1999 J. Climate 12 2434
[21] Zou X K, Zhai P M, Zhang Q 2005 Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 04707
[22] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chinese Sci. Bull. 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国、符淙斌 2006 科学通报 51 2429]
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[1] Wei F Y 2007 Modern Technology of Statistical Climate Detection and Prediction (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p6 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第6页]
[2] Render S, Mark R P 2006 Phys. Rev. E 74 061114
[3] Jan F E, Jan W K, Armin B, Shlomo H 2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 016130
[4] Zhang D Q, Yang J, Wang Q G, Feng G L 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 4354 (in Chinese) [章大全、杨 杰、王启光、封国林 2009 58 4354 ]
[5] Feng G L, Yang J, Wan S Q, How W, Zhi R 2009 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 67 61 (in Chinese) [封国林、杨 杰、万仕全、侯 威、支 蓉 2009 气象学报 67 61]
[6] Sarah H, Eduardo G A, Detlef H, Holger K 2007 Phys. Rev. E 75 016706
[7] Bonsal B R, Zhang X B, Vincent L A 2001 J. Climate 14 1959
[8] Lorenz E N 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130
[9] Lorenz E N 1997 The Essence of Chaos (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) p33 (in Chinese) [洛伦兹 1997 混沌的本质 (北京: 气象出版社) 第33页]
[10] Kantz H, Holstein D, Ragwitz M, Vitanov N K 2004 Physica A 342 315
[11] Gober M, Wilson C A, Milton S F, Stephenson D B 2004 J. Hydrol. 288 225
[12] Lamper D, Howison S D, Johnson N F 2002 Phys. Rev. Lett. 88 1
[13] Soloman S, Qin D H, Manning M, Alley R B, Berntsen T 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p61
[14] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorl. 5 1117
[15] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Karl T R 1998 Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 3367
[16] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T 2004 J. Hydrometeorol. 5 1117
[17] Karl T R 1983 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 22 1356
[18] Karl T R 1986 J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 25 77
[19] Karl T R, Koscielny A J 1982 J. Climate 2 313
[20] Nkemdirim L, Weber L 1999 J. Climate 12 2434
[21] Zou X K, Zhai P M, Zhang Q 2005 Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 04707
[22] Ma Z G, Fu C B 2006 Chinese Sci. Bull. 51 2429 (in Chinese) [马柱国、符淙斌 2006 科学通报 51 2429]
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