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中国物理学会期刊

数字滤波弱约束四维变分同化在台风初始化中的应用I.个例试验

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.63.119203

Application of digital filter weak constraint four dimensional variational data assimilation on typhoon initialization I. Numerical experiments

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.63.119203
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  • 传统四维变分(4D-Var)同化台风初始化中,bogus资料的同化将不可避免引起初始时刻风场和质量场之间的非平衡,在预报时段产生高频振荡噪音,进而影响数值模拟效果. 如何有效滤除bogus 资料引入产生的高频噪音非常重要. 本文为第I部分,基于数字滤波弱约束4D-Var方法,开展台风初始化个例试验研究. 2010年Chaba台风两个不同时刻数值试验结果表明:bogus资料4D-Var同化台风初始化中,呈现出与暴雨个例明显不同的3 h地面气压倾向特征,不同数字滤波权重试验在初始时刻差异小,在预报1–4 h差异明显;实施数字滤波弱约束使得初始时刻700 hPa垂直速度场和850 hPa散度场在台风区域减小,bogus资料为引起高频噪音的一个重要因素;数字滤波权重选择是影响台风同化和数值模拟效果的重要因素,合理的数字滤波权重选择试验可明显改善台风路径和强度预报,相对于台风强度预报,路径预报改善更加明显;同时,某些个例中,数字滤波权重的选择直接决定着台风数值模拟的成功与否. 不同台风个例相对最佳数字滤波权重并不相同,如何选择数字滤波权重非常重要. 第II部分中将针对bogus资料同化台风初始化,提出一种数字滤波权重优选方案.

     

    Traditional four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) bogus data assimilation (BDA) will upset the internal dynamical balance of wind and mass fields, which will generate spurious fast oscillations in the prediction and cause the numerical simulation failure. How to effectively suppress the spurious fast oscillations is very important. In this paper (part I), the digital filter weak constraint 4D-Var is tested in BDA experiments. Initialization and simulation experiments are conducted for typhoon Chaba (2010) using this approach. Results show that the initial noise property is different for typhoon case and rainfall case, and the difference in surface pressure tendency is small in assimilation time and large at the initial stage in different digital filter weight setting BDA experiments. The vertical velocity field of 700 hPa and divergence field of 850 hPa in typhoon areas are both weakened in digital filter weak constraint 4D-Var experiments. Compared with the traditional 4D-Var experiment, the track and intensity predictions are improved obviously in digital filter weak constraint 4D-Var experiment with a proper digital filter weight setting, and the track prediction is apparently improved. Meanwhile, the optimal digital filter weight for different typhoon cases is different, and how to optimally select the digital filter weight is very important. In Part Ⅱ, a digital filter weight selection method will be proposed for BDA experiment.

     

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