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中国物理学会期刊

长江中下游汛期降水模式预测误差相似性及其可预报度

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.63.119202

The analogy and predictability of the forecasting model error for the precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer

CSTR: 32037.14.aps.63.119202
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  • 对数值模式预测误差进行相似预报进而订正模式预报结果,是提高模式预报水平的有效手段之一. 本文从数值模式预测误差场存在相似性的角度出发,研究了长江中下游汛期降水逐年模式误差场间的相似性及其可预报性,探讨了数值模式预测误差在历史资料中的相似信息量,发现利用相似误差订正可以明显提高模式预报水平. 进一步对历史模式预测误差场进行经验正交函数(EOF)分解,着重研究了误差场前三个特征向量的空间分布及其时间系数演化规律,发现对各分量分别进行相似预报可以简化预报对象,并且针对性更强,可以提高其潜在预报水平. 在研究数值模式预测误差场相似性的基础上,定义了数值模式预测误差的相似可预报度,用以衡量逐年模式预测误差的可预测性,发现模式预测误差场前三个分量的相似可预报度明显高于原始模式误差场,揭示出有针对性地分别预报模式预测误差各分量的潜在应用价值.

     

    This paper reports an effective method to improve the forecasting level of the numerical model through analogue prediction of errors and correction of the results. The analogy of the precipitation model errors and its predictability are studied for the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer time in the perspective of analogy, which exists in the error field in the forecasting numerical model. The content of the analogy is also investigated according to the historical data. It is found that the forecasting errors could be improved remarkably by analogue error prediction over the regions researched in summer time. The forecasting error field is decomposed by EOF, and then the geographic distribution and time coefficient evolution of the first three principal components are analyzed. The prediction of the precipitation could be simplified by analogue forecasting of the principal components separately, and it is more targeted to improve the potential forecasting level. On the basis of the analogy of the forecasting error field, its analogue predictability is defined to measure the predictability of the errors. The analogue predictability of the first three principal components is significantly higher than that of the original field. It has potential applications to precipitation predication by forecasting the error field principal components.

     

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