Error correction on summer model precipitation of China based on the singular value decomposition

Su Hai-Jing; Wang Qi-Guang; Yang Jie; Qian Zhong-Hua

doi:10.7498/aps.62.109202

Abstract

In this paper, singular value decomposition (SVD) is used to correct the National Climate Center business model CGCM, thus improving the forecast results. By performing the SVD decomposition using field coupling between the summer rainfall patterns forecasted in 1983-2011 and actual rainfall values, by selecting the mode forecast and 3-7 modals that are best correlated with the live precipitation, and comparing these revised results of the different numbers of modal number, and by selecting the number of modals with the best correction effect in the China region, the revised results are obtained from the model predictions. The 2004-2009 cross hindcast experiments and the return results tested by using the anomaly correlation coefficient and the root mean square error as evaluation criterion show that the best corrections are obtained by taking the first five modals in 2004-2009 as the number of modal revised in the year. The examinations of 2004-2009 mode and actual precipitation data demonstrate the correction effect obtained by the five modals is indeed best. A comparison between the result and the systematic errors shows that the Dhamma revised results are better than the systematic errors. Taking the year of 2010 as the forecast year, using the results of the cross-examination of 27 years 1983-2009 to determine the number of modals, and analyzing the forecast results by the determined number of modals constitute a method that has a potential business value.

Keywords:

Authors and contacts

1.
Physical Science and Technology College of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Cadre Training Colleges, Beijing 100081, China;
3.
College of Atmospheric Scicences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Funds: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41105055, 40930952), the Major Global Change Research Program (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant Nos. GYHY201006016, GYHY201106015).

References

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[2]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[3]	Zhao S R, Song Z S 1999 Plateau Meteorol. 18 535 (in Chinese) [赵声蓉, 宋正山 1999 高原气象 18 535]
[4]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 万仕全, 李建平 2006 55 477]
[5]	Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林 2010 59 655]
[6]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 59 664]
[7]	Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Trop. Meteorol. 26 438 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 438]
[8]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China D 37 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学 D辑 37 988]
[9]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Adv. Earth Sci. 22 376 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[10]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[11]	Fan K, Lin M J, Gao Y Z 2008 Sci. China 38 1452 (in Chinese) [范可, 林美静, 高煜中 2008 中国科学 38 1452]
[12]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[13]	Chou J F 2003 Xinjiang Meteorol. 26 1 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2003 新疆气象 26 1]
[14]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[15]	Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176 ]
[16]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 B 辑 23 104]
[17]	Qiu Z J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[18]	Feng G L, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Chou J F 2001 Adv. Atmosph. Sci. 18 701 (in Chinese)
[19]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[20]	Zhen Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[21]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支容 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[22]	Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 213 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 气象学报 70 213]
[23]	Yang J, Zhao J H, Zhen Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[24]	Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteor. 19 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 19 178]
[25]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支容, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[26]	Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林2010 59 655]
[27]	Shi N 2002 Weather Research and Forecasting How Far the Analysis Method (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p129 (in Chinese) [施能 2002 气象科研与预报中的多远分析方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第129页]
[28]	Wei F Y 2007 Diagnosis and Prediction of Modern Climate Statistics Technology (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p144 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第144页]
[29]	Qin Z Q, Lin Z H, Chen H, Sun Z B 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 69 0289 (in Chinese) [秦正坤, 林朝晖, 陈红, 孙照渤 2011 气象学报 69 0289]
[30]	Li F, Lin Z D, Zuo R T, Zeng Q C 2005 Adv. Climate Change Res. 10 658 (in Chinese) [李芳, 林中达, 左瑞亭, 曾庆存 2005 气候与环境研究 10 658]

Cited By

[1]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745
[2]	Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2004 Chin. Phys. 13 1582
[3]	Zhao S R, Song Z S 1999 Plateau Meteorol. 18 535 (in Chinese) [赵声蓉, 宋正山 1999 高原气象 18 535]
[4]	Gong Z Q, Feng G L, Wan S Q, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin. 55 477 (in Chinese) [龚志强, 封国林, 万仕全, 李建平 2006 55 477]
[5]	Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林 2010 59 655]
[6]	Yang J, Hou W, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 664 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 侯威, 封国林 2010 59 664]
[7]	Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Trop. Meteorol. 26 438 (in Chinese) [魏凤英, 黄嘉佑 2010 热带气象学报 26 438]
[8]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Sci. China D 37 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 中国科学 D辑 37 988]
[9]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2007 Adv. Earth Sci. 22 376 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2007 地球科学进展 22 376]
[10]	Feng G L, Dong W J 2003 Acta Phys. Sin. 52 2347 (in Chinese) [封国林, 董文杰 2003 52 2347]
[11]	Fan K, Lin M J, Gao Y Z 2008 Sci. China 38 1452 (in Chinese) [范可, 林美静, 高煜中 2008 中国科学 38 1452]
[12]	Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese) [封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范 2001 50 606]
[13]	Chou J F 2003 Xinjiang Meteorol. 26 1 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 2003 新疆气象 26 1]
[14]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorol. 5 367 (in Chinese) [丑纪范 1986 高原气象 5 367]
[15]	Gu Z C 1958 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 29 176 (in Chinese) [顾震潮 1958 气象学报 29 176 ]
[16]	Cao H X 1993 Sci. China B 23 104 (in Chinese) [曹鸿兴 1993 中国科学 B 辑 23 104]
[17]	Qiu Z J, Chou J F 1989 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 13 22 (in Chinese) [邱崇践, 丑纪范 1989 大气科学 13 22]
[18]	Feng G L, Gao X Q, Dong W J, Chou J F 2001 Adv. Atmosph. Sci. 18 701 (in Chinese)
[19]	Ren H L, Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese) [任宏利, 丑纪范 2005 气象学报 63 988]
[20]	Zhen Z H, Ren H L, Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese) [郑志海, 任宏利, 黄建平 2009 58 7359]
[21]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H, Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese) [王启光, 封国林, 郑志海, 支容 2011 大气科学 35 287]
[22]	Xiong K G, Feng G L, Huang J P, Chou J F 2012 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 70 213 (in Chinese) [熊开国, 封国林, 黄建平, 丑纪范 2012 气象学报 70 213]
[23]	Yang J, Zhao J H, Zhen Z H, Xiong K G, Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 赵俊虎, 郑志海, 熊开国, 沈柏竹 2012 大气科学 36 11]
[24]	Chen G Y, Zhao Z G 1998 Quart. J. Appl. Meteor. 19 178 (in Chinese) [陈桂英, 赵振国 1998 应用气象学报 19 178]
[25]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R, Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese) [杨杰, 王启光, 支容, 封国林 2011 60 029204]
[26]	Zhang D Q, Zhang L, Yang J, Feng G L 2010 Acta Phys. Sin. 59 655 (in Chinese) [章大全, 张璐, 杨杰, 封国林2010 59 655]
[27]	Shi N 2002 Weather Research and Forecasting How Far the Analysis Method (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p129 (in Chinese) [施能 2002 气象科研与预报中的多远分析方法 (北京: 气象出版社) 第129页]
[28]	Wei F Y 2007 Diagnosis and Prediction of Modern Climate Statistics Technology (2nd Ed.) (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p144 (in Chinese) [魏凤英 2007 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术 (北京: 气象出版社) 第144页]
[29]	Qin Z Q, Lin Z H, Chen H, Sun Z B 2011 Acta Meteorol. Sin. 69 0289 (in Chinese) [秦正坤, 林朝晖, 陈红, 孙照渤 2011 气象学报 69 0289]
[30]	Li F, Lin Z D, Zuo R T, Zeng Q C 2005 Adv. Climate Change Res. 10 658 (in Chinese) [李芳, 林中达, 左瑞亭, 曾庆存 2005 气候与环境研究 10 658]

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Vol. 62, Issue 10 - 2013-05-20

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