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在全面分析煤矿长斜井TBM（盾构）施工动态风险特点的基础上，利用多变量混沌时间序列预测方法对其进行预测. 利用主成分分析法，确定影响煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险的主要成分. 对煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险多变量时间序列进行相空间的重构，确定时间延迟τ i 和嵌入维数m i ，采用小数据量法计算煤矿长斜井TBM施工多变量风险时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数，证明了其具有混沌特性，提出了一阶局域法与双隐层神经网络的组合预测模型，该模型能够对多变量风险时间序列随时间的变化进行预测. 仿真实验表明，该预测模型误差小于单变量时间序列的预测误差，具有较强的预测能力和较好的预测效果，可为煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险分析与评估提供一种新的途径.Multi-variable chaotic time series are used to predict the long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine construction by TBM techniques, and principal component analysis (PCA) is used to determine the main factors that impact risk (shield) of the long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM techniques. Phase space of risk time series for construction by TBM are reconstructed; time delay and embedding dimension are determined. Maximum Lyapunov indexes of risk are obtained by using small data quantity method; it is found that the time series have characteristics of chaos. Prediction model is established using the combination of first-order local method and double hidden layer neural network. Simulation experiments show that the combined model has a strong ability of prediction and achieves better effect. As a result, it provides a new way for long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM techniques.
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Keywords:
- long inclined-shaft construction /
- TBM techniques /
- risk prediction /
- time series of multiple index
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[2] Pelizza S, Grasso P 2002 Construction Machinery 5 21(in Chinese)[ 徐书林译 2002 建筑机械 5 21]
[3] Tao L B 2012 Theory and Practice of Risk Analysis on Project-Risk Anakysis on Shanghai Chongming Cross-river Tunnel Engineering (Tongji University Press) (in Chinese) [陶履彬 2012 工程风险分析理论与实践-上海崇明越江通道工程风险分析 (同济大学出版社)]
[4] Zhang X D, Liu X D, Zheng Y, Liu C 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030509
[5] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
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[7] Liu H M, Qi H, Cai Z Q 2003 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering 22 434 (in Chinese)[刘华明, 齐欢, 蔡志强 2003 岩石力学与工程学报 22 434]
[8] Jiang J S, Han L J, He Y N 2005 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering 24 2934 (in Chinese)[蒋斌松, 韩立军, 贺永年 2005 岩石力学与工程学报 24 2934]
[9] Zhao Z G, Tan Y L 2009 Rock and Soil Mechanics 20 2186 (in Chinese) [赵志刚, 谭云亮 2009 岩土力学 20 2186]
[10] Zhao Y P, Zhang L Y, Li D C, Wang L F, Jiang H Z 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 120511 (in Chinese) [赵永平, 张丽艳, 李德才, 王立峰, 蒋洪章 2013 62 120511]
[11] Lei S L 2005 Chongqing University 13 (in Chinese) [雷绍兰 2005 重庆大学 13]
[12] Takens F 1981 Lecture Notes in Mathematics 898 230
[13] Zhang X Q, Liang J 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 190507 (in Chinese) [张学清, 梁军 2012 61 190507]
[14] Liu D Y, Wang Y W, Wang X, He K, Zhang X J, Yang C X 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 150506 (in Chinese) [刘丹阳, 王亚伟, 王仙, 何昆, 张兴娟, 杨春信 2012 61 150506]
[15] Lv J H, Lu J A, Chen S H 2005 The Analysis and Applications of Chaotic Time Series (Wuhan: Wuhan University Press) 72-85 (in Chinese) [吕金虎, 陆君安, 陈士华 2005 混沌时间序列分析及其应用 (武汉:武汉大学出版社) 72–85]
[16] Ma J, Xu P K 2009 Techniques of Automation and Application 28 15 (in Chinese) [马娟, 徐培凯 2009 自动化技术与应用 28 15]
[17] Zuo J, Wang H, Ceng Z F 2008 Statistics and Decision 16 33 (in Chinese) [左俊, 王桓, 曾昭法 2008 统计与决策 16 33]
[18] Ding G, Zhong S S 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 1224 (in Chinese) [丁刚, 钟诗胜 2007 56 1224]
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[1] Yin J T, Shang Y J, Fu B J 2005 Journal of Engineering Geology 24 389 (in Chinese) [尹俊涛, 尚彦军, 傅冰骏 2005 工程地质学报 24 389]
[2] Pelizza S, Grasso P 2002 Construction Machinery 5 21(in Chinese)[ 徐书林译 2002 建筑机械 5 21]
[3] Tao L B 2012 Theory and Practice of Risk Analysis on Project-Risk Anakysis on Shanghai Chongming Cross-river Tunnel Engineering (Tongji University Press) (in Chinese) [陶履彬 2012 工程风险分析理论与实践-上海崇明越江通道工程风险分析 (同济大学出版社)]
[4] Zhang X D, Liu X D, Zheng Y, Liu C 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030509
[5] Tang Y F, Liu S L, Jiang R H, Liu Y H 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 030504
[6] Zhang F F, Liu S T, Yu W Y 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 120505
[7] Liu H M, Qi H, Cai Z Q 2003 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering 22 434 (in Chinese)[刘华明, 齐欢, 蔡志强 2003 岩石力学与工程学报 22 434]
[8] Jiang J S, Han L J, He Y N 2005 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering 24 2934 (in Chinese)[蒋斌松, 韩立军, 贺永年 2005 岩石力学与工程学报 24 2934]
[9] Zhao Z G, Tan Y L 2009 Rock and Soil Mechanics 20 2186 (in Chinese) [赵志刚, 谭云亮 2009 岩土力学 20 2186]
[10] Zhao Y P, Zhang L Y, Li D C, Wang L F, Jiang H Z 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 120511 (in Chinese) [赵永平, 张丽艳, 李德才, 王立峰, 蒋洪章 2013 62 120511]
[11] Lei S L 2005 Chongqing University 13 (in Chinese) [雷绍兰 2005 重庆大学 13]
[12] Takens F 1981 Lecture Notes in Mathematics 898 230
[13] Zhang X Q, Liang J 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 190507 (in Chinese) [张学清, 梁军 2012 61 190507]
[14] Liu D Y, Wang Y W, Wang X, He K, Zhang X J, Yang C X 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 150506 (in Chinese) [刘丹阳, 王亚伟, 王仙, 何昆, 张兴娟, 杨春信 2012 61 150506]
[15] Lv J H, Lu J A, Chen S H 2005 The Analysis and Applications of Chaotic Time Series (Wuhan: Wuhan University Press) 72-85 (in Chinese) [吕金虎, 陆君安, 陈士华 2005 混沌时间序列分析及其应用 (武汉:武汉大学出版社) 72–85]
[16] Ma J, Xu P K 2009 Techniques of Automation and Application 28 15 (in Chinese) [马娟, 徐培凯 2009 自动化技术与应用 28 15]
[17] Zuo J, Wang H, Ceng Z F 2008 Statistics and Decision 16 33 (in Chinese) [左俊, 王桓, 曾昭法 2008 统计与决策 16 33]
[18] Ding G, Zhong S S 2007 Acta Phys. Sin. 56 1224 (in Chinese) [丁刚, 钟诗胜 2007 56 1224]
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